10 ms·

I wonder if electrical grids are really prepared for mass adoption of EV. For example, UK is already quite reliant on the HVDC link [0] from France. In 2016 it

by fuoqi 6y ago

I wonder if electrical grids are really prepared for mass adoption of EV. For example, UK is already quite reliant on the HVDC link [0] from France. In 2016 it got damaged resulting in a reduced capacity, which has caused serious concerns at the time. And it's not only about power generation, it's also quite probable that a lot of existing power lines would have to be updated to satisfy a higher demand for electrical power. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HVDC_Cross-Channel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HVDC_Cross-Channel

tw04 6y ago
I've been trying to wrap my head around this as well. You look at the repeated rolling brown-outs that seem to happen in places like California every few years, and I wonder how throwing 10s of millions of cars that all need to charge at extremely high rates is going to be absorbed. Sure, SOME of those people might also install things like solar panels and batteries, but I just don't see how the math works right now.
- onlyrealcuzzo 6y ago
  If a Tesla battery is 100kWh and it gets like 350 miles - and you can get 6 hours of sun on a 350 watt panel per day on average - that means 2 panels could charge your car about once per month, right?
  - athms 6y ago
    Do you thinks everybody lives in a single family home with lots of disposable income?
    - theshrike79 6y ago
      If someone already has a Tesla with a 100kW battery, I don't think the extra $3k for a solar panel will break the bank =)
      - athms 6y ago
        I rent an apartment, where would you like me to put the solar panel?
        theshrike79 6y ago
        Do you have a 100kW Tesla?
  - xsmasher 6y ago
    Alternate numbers: typical home solar installation delivers 10-15 kWh per day. Tesla model 3 has 50kWh battery and 220 mile range. 15kWh * (220 miles / 50 kWh) = 60 miles of charge a day. If your commute is less than 30 miles each way you don't touch the grid to charge. Of course if you plan on getting or have an electric car you can always get a larger system.
- Obi_Juan_Kenobi 6y ago
  Simple: most people charge at night. Sure, fast charging will add some day-time demand, but it's not much. Cheap night-time pricing keeps the charging demand off-peak. More even demand curves make generation more economical. It becomes trivial to upgrade distribution where needed.
  - tw04 6y ago
    I still don't see how that works when you're talking EVERYONE charging. Here's a quick example from New England in 2010: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=830 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=830 During "peak" hours they're using roughly 17Gw total, and during off-peak, it's at 15Gw so we've only got 2Gw total to buffer electric cars charging. Feel free to tell me how my math is wrong, but let's assume worst case scenario: a tesla charger lists 11.5kW max draw. There are roughly 14m people in New England, if we assume even half of them were charging overnight, that's 86Gw of power draw. Even if you back that off to 25% of the population and half the power draw from the charger, you're at 21.5Gw of power, which is 10x what is available, and more than the total power usage during peak hours. If someone else has some different math I'm all ears but I don't know how we're going to more than double the total power capacity in 10 years - even if you assume we can get there with renewables, the backend infrastructure can't handle it.
    - yongjik 6y ago
      2021 Tesla Model S has a 100kW battery and 402-mi range. I searched for "average driving miles per year" and Google says 13,500 miles - assuming this, we have about 37 miles per day, which would mean our Tesla S only needs to charge 9.2kW every day. If they're sitting on a charger 10 hours per day, they can take a leisurely 920W per vehicle (less than a good hair dryer), not 11.5kW.
      - tw04 6y ago
        I'm not sure I agree with that math for a number of reasons. For starters if you want to go strictly by averages, the average household has two cars, so your 9.2kW goes to 18.4kW out of the gate. Additionally that average includes teenagers which drives the mileage down, but households with teens tend to have more cars, so that means either they come out of the average or the 18.4 jumps to 27.6kW/day. The average household uses <1200kWh per month. Adding another 18kW per day increases power usage by almost 50%, which goes back to: the national power grid doesn't have anywhere near 50% spare capacity.
abeppu 6y ago
I think the other side of the coin is also interesting: If we're smart, could we use EVs to make the grid more resilient? Could we be thinking of EVs both as transportation and as flexible and hyperlocal power storage. E.g. parked EVs could reverse-meter if there's very high power demand, and absorb cheap (or negative cost) power when it's really windy in Texas, etc.
- paperwasp42 6y ago
  Not sure why you're getting downvoted, because this is a valid idea that's being seriously researched. Will it offset the surge of electric usage caused by mass adoption of EVs? Probably not. But could it help? Very likely, and I think ideas like this need to be pursued.
- abeppu 6y ago
  I guess one more cynical read of the same suggestion is that, having failed to gather the political will to modernize our power infrastructure, we're grasping at straws by suggesting that we can piggyback off of private consumption to cobble together some of the same benefits.
  - paperwasp42 6y ago
    Ding ding. Ideas like this are fantastic and I believe should be pursued. But it's ultimately going to be a band-aid (and a costly, fragile one at that), not a holistic solution.
- fuoqi 6y ago
  I see several problems with this idea: - EV battery recharge resource is not infinite. Spending it on grid stabilization could be quite costly if you'll factor in cost of battery replacement. In the long run it could be cheaper to build mines for hydroelectric/compressed air storage. - It will require huge capital investments. You have to equip every parking spot with inverters which can both charge EV and supply power from it to the grid and invest into upgrading grid to be smart enough to work in such conditions. - What will happen on low-energy days? It's fine to drain most of power from hydroelectric storage or from stationary flow batteries, but you simply can not do it with EV. Imagine being told "sorry pal, you have to walk home today, power from your EV was used to stabilize the grid".
sto_hristo 6y ago
If people don't stop with the wishful dreaming of how 'renewables' are the future, it's hard to image the grid supporting massive adoption of anything of non-trivial load.
paperwasp42 6y ago
Speaking as a worker at an electric utility company--we aren't. Sure, solar panels and batteries help. Plus there's the possibility of using EVs as a distributed battery system, and lots of other clever ideas like that. But it's not enough. We hit a record load this summer, and expect another record this year. Add on the extra burden of regulation that enforces green energy production, and we're edging toward not being able to meet customers' needs. (Green energy is a worthy cause, don't get me wrong, but far more costly and time-consuming to build out the infrastructure.) TLDR; We're struggling. Real bad. (Edited to add: I should define "struggling." We strive to keep prices as low as possible, and also to fund low-income assistance programs. We keep having to raise prices, are looking at jacking them up even more this year, and are struggling to fund our low-income programs. Our community is deeply hurting from these changes, and are making their voices heard. Don't get me wrong, I'm very pro green energy. But the effects of green regulation needs to be seriously studied and the negative impacts mitigated.)
ip26 6y ago
If the distribution grid can power every AC unit in the city (5.5kW apiece) running at the same time at 3pm, I don’t really see why it would fundamentally struggle with 6kW car chargers spread out overnight. It might not be quite up to task yet, and AC cycles while cars don’t, but it seems within spitting distance.
fulafel 6y ago
It's normal bread and butter work to plan ahead incrementally increase capacity over time. Wind and solar also need more transmission capacity. The transition is after all happening relatively slowly, there's not going to be a EV flag day. Of course there may be dysfunctional transmission organisations that have been able to hobble along without anyone noticing for a while that get caught by this, but that's just something that needed to be fixed anyway.
fulafel 6y ago
That HVDC link is 2000 MW, consisting of 2 independent 1000MW systems even built by different manufacturers. Sounds very similar to risk that the grid has to manage (with backup power etc) with normal power stations. The UK is much less dependent on cross border electricity than most European countries.

by fuoqi 6y ago

tw04 6y ago

I've been trying to wrap my head around this as well. You look at the repeated rolling brown-outs that seem to happen in places like California every few years, and I wonder how throwing 10s of millions of cars that all need to charge at extremely high rates is going to be absorbed. Sure, SOME of those people might also install things like solar panels and batteries, but I just don't see how the math works right now.

onlyrealcuzzo 6y ago
If a Tesla battery is 100kWh and it gets like 350 miles - and you can get 6 hours of sun on a 350 watt panel per day on average - that means 2 panels could charge your car about once per month, right?
- athms 6y ago
  Do you thinks everybody lives in a single family home with lots of disposable income?
  - theshrike79 6y ago
    If someone already has a Tesla with a 100kW battery, I don't think the extra $3k for a solar panel will break the bank =)
    - athms 6y ago
      I rent an apartment, where would you like me to put the solar panel?
      - theshrike79 6y ago
        Do you have a 100kW Tesla?
- xsmasher 6y ago
  Alternate numbers: typical home solar installation delivers 10-15 kWh per day. Tesla model 3 has 50kWh battery and 220 mile range. 15kWh * (220 miles / 50 kWh) = 60 miles of charge a day. If your commute is less than 30 miles each way you don't touch the grid to charge. Of course if you plan on getting or have an electric car you can always get a larger system.
Obi_Juan_Kenobi 6y ago
Simple: most people charge at night. Sure, fast charging will add some day-time demand, but it's not much. Cheap night-time pricing keeps the charging demand off-peak. More even demand curves make generation more economical. It becomes trivial to upgrade distribution where needed.
- tw04 6y ago
  I still don't see how that works when you're talking EVERYONE charging. Here's a quick example from New England in 2010: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=830 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=830 During "peak" hours they're using roughly 17Gw total, and during off-peak, it's at 15Gw so we've only got 2Gw total to buffer electric cars charging. Feel free to tell me how my math is wrong, but let's assume worst case scenario: a tesla charger lists 11.5kW max draw. There are roughly 14m people in New England, if we assume even half of them were charging overnight, that's 86Gw of power draw. Even if you back that off to 25% of the population and half the power draw from the charger, you're at 21.5Gw of power, which is 10x what is available, and more than the total power usage during peak hours. If someone else has some different math I'm all ears but I don't know how we're going to more than double the total power capacity in 10 years - even if you assume we can get there with renewables, the backend infrastructure can't handle it.
  - yongjik 6y ago
    2021 Tesla Model S has a 100kW battery and 402-mi range. I searched for "average driving miles per year" and Google says 13,500 miles - assuming this, we have about 37 miles per day, which would mean our Tesla S only needs to charge 9.2kW every day. If they're sitting on a charger 10 hours per day, they can take a leisurely 920W per vehicle (less than a good hair dryer), not 11.5kW.
    - tw04 6y ago
      I'm not sure I agree with that math for a number of reasons. For starters if you want to go strictly by averages, the average household has two cars, so your 9.2kW goes to 18.4kW out of the gate. Additionally that average includes teenagers which drives the mileage down, but households with teens tend to have more cars, so that means either they come out of the average or the 18.4 jumps to 27.6kW/day. The average household uses <1200kWh per month. Adding another 18kW per day increases power usage by almost 50%, which goes back to: the national power grid doesn't have anywhere near 50% spare capacity.

abeppu 6y ago

I think the other side of the coin is also interesting: If we're smart, could we use EVs to make the grid more resilient? Could we be thinking of EVs both as transportation and as flexible and hyperlocal power storage. E.g. parked EVs could reverse-meter if there's very high power demand, and absorb cheap (or negative cost) power when it's really windy in Texas, etc.

paperwasp42 6y ago
Not sure why you're getting downvoted, because this is a valid idea that's being seriously researched. Will it offset the surge of electric usage caused by mass adoption of EVs? Probably not. But could it help? Very likely, and I think ideas like this need to be pursued.
abeppu 6y ago
I guess one more cynical read of the same suggestion is that, having failed to gather the political will to modernize our power infrastructure, we're grasping at straws by suggesting that we can piggyback off of private consumption to cobble together some of the same benefits.
- paperwasp42 6y ago
  Ding ding. Ideas like this are fantastic and I believe should be pursued. But it's ultimately going to be a band-aid (and a costly, fragile one at that), not a holistic solution.
fuoqi 6y ago
I see several problems with this idea: - EV battery recharge resource is not infinite. Spending it on grid stabilization could be quite costly if you'll factor in cost of battery replacement. In the long run it could be cheaper to build mines for hydroelectric/compressed air storage. - It will require huge capital investments. You have to equip every parking spot with inverters which can both charge EV and supply power from it to the grid and invest into upgrading grid to be smart enough to work in such conditions. - What will happen on low-energy days? It's fine to drain most of power from hydroelectric storage or from stationary flow batteries, but you simply can not do it with EV. Imagine being told "sorry pal, you have to walk home today, power from your EV was used to stabilize the grid".

sto_hristo 6y ago

If people don't stop with the wishful dreaming of how 'renewables' are the future, it's hard to image the grid supporting massive adoption of anything of non-trivial load.

paperwasp42 6y ago

Speaking as a worker at an electric utility company--we aren't. Sure, solar panels and batteries help. Plus there's the possibility of using EVs as a distributed battery system, and lots of other clever ideas like that. But it's not enough. We hit a record load this summer, and expect another record this year. Add on the extra burden of regulation that enforces green energy production, and we're edging toward not being able to meet customers' needs. (Green energy is a worthy cause, don't get me wrong, but far more costly and time-consuming to build out the infrastructure.) TLDR; We're struggling. Real bad. (Edited to add: I should define "struggling." We strive to keep prices as low as possible, and also to fund low-income assistance programs. We keep having to raise prices, are looking at jacking them up even more this year, and are struggling to fund our low-income programs. Our community is deeply hurting from these changes, and are making their voices heard. Don't get me wrong, I'm very pro green energy. But the effects of green regulation needs to be seriously studied and the negative impacts mitigated.)

ip26 6y ago

If the distribution grid can power every AC unit in the city (5.5kW apiece) running at the same time at 3pm, I don’t really see why it would fundamentally struggle with 6kW car chargers spread out overnight. It might not be quite up to task yet, and AC cycles while cars don’t, but it seems within spitting distance.

fulafel 6y ago

It's normal bread and butter work to plan ahead incrementally increase capacity over time. Wind and solar also need more transmission capacity. The transition is after all happening relatively slowly, there's not going to be a EV flag day. Of course there may be dysfunctional transmission organisations that have been able to hobble along without anyone noticing for a while that get caught by this, but that's just something that needed to be fixed anyway.

fulafel 6y ago

That HVDC link is 2000 MW, consisting of 2 independent 1000MW systems even built by different manufacturers. Sounds very similar to risk that the grid has to manage (with backup power etc) with normal power stations. The UK is much less dependent on cross border electricity than most European countries.