5 ms·

> Given 25 million have tested positive, by the prior estimates, that means a likely 250 million Americans have already gotten covid [4] Considering there are

by xur17 6y ago

> Given 25 million have tested positive, by the prior estimates, that means a likely 250 million Americans have already gotten covid [4] Considering there are 328 million Americans, that would mean 76% of Americans have had the disease, which I believe would be sufficient for herd immunity. Given what case counts look like, I find that extremely unlikely.

citilife 6y ago
They've been counting any flu related illness as COVID, hospitals also get additional funds for COVID-19 hospitalizations. Only a handful of influenza tests have even been ran: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ In all likelihood, yes we are nearing heard immunity and we're done with the illness. Further, there's an issue with the PCR testing. Though there have been reports since August - October 2020, published in November 2020: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346483715_External_peer_review_of_the_RTPCR_test_to_detect_SARS-CoV-2_reveals_10_major_scientific_flaws_at_the_molecular_and_methodological_level_consequences_for_false_positive_results https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346483715_External_... Basically, they started over amplifying the DNA and weren't controlling the PCR tests very well. Here's the original WHO warning in December 2020 https://web.archive.org/web/20210102051357/https://www.who.int/news/item/14-12-2020-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users https://web.archive.org/web/20210102051357/https://www.who.i... (Since... the page has been deleted, but followed later) With the official statement January 19, 2020: https://www.who.int/news/item/19-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2021-01 https://www.who.int/news/item/19-01-2021-who-information-not...
- adventured 6y ago
  > They've been counting any flu related illness as COVID What you're claiming doesn't pass any sniff test what-so-ever. Low tens of thousands of people die in a typical year from the flu (in the US). The US is seeing that many deaths from Covid every ten days now. There's no evidence the US is close to herd immunity. Deaths just hit a new daily record high two days ago. Daily case numbers have been raging at present high levels for over six weeks with zero sign of stopping naturally. The vaccines are clearly the only thing that's going to slow it during this season.
- throwaway2245 6y ago
  > They've been counting any flu related illness as COVID There are no flu related illnesses: the 2020-21 winter flu season has not happened. Here are the results for the last 12 months of WHO's influenza monitoring (you may have to pick a country). They are conducting global testing at or above normal levels: https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=1 https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=1 If you look closely enough at the x-axis, you might be able to see how much flu there is.
- selimthegrim 6y ago
  Herd immunity...against which variant?
- selimthegrim 6y ago
  As far as Ct goes, 25-30 should do it. Even Fauci says >30-35 or so is dead fragments. Do you think everyone is doing 40?
mywittyname 6y ago
>that would mean 76% of Americans have had the disease, which I believe would be sufficient for herd immunity. My understanding is that it is possible to get covid-19 multiple times. But lack of widespread testing is making it difficult to measure how prevalent this is. There are also two known strains of covid. There are a lot of unknowns at this point. We could be dealing with cyclical covid outbreaks for the next decade, the vaccine rollout this summer might eliminate it for good, or we could land somewhere between the two.
jeofken 6y ago
A very large amount of cases are simply false positives. We have no idea how widespread the disease is, but it’s certainly less spread and deadly than feared. This has been talked about in non-mainstream news for a while, but is only recently recognised in the state and big media organisations around the western world. Like terrorism was in the 00’s, this is proving very useful for those who want to expand their power via the state. https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/letters-health-care-providers/potential-false-positive-results-antigen-tests-rapid-detection-sars-cov-2-letter-clinical-laboratory https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/letters-health-care-prov...
- xur17 6y ago
  > We have no idea how widespread the disease is, but it’s certainly less spread and deadly than feared. These 2 statements seem to contradict each other. If it's less spread than feared / reported, that would mean it's more deadly than reported.
  - jeofken 6y ago
    Would you show me the contradiction in more detail please? When talking about case numbers, it’s (very) inflated by the large number of false positives in PCR tests. When speaking of deaths, at least where I’m around (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Germany) the reported numbers are people dead who also tested positive for covid-19. I suppose reported deaths work similarity elsewhere. The claim about 2020 being the best year in decades for those who want to concentrate statist power I guess we can agree to be objectively true.

by xur17 6y ago

citilife 6y ago

They've been counting any flu related illness as COVID, hospitals also get additional funds for COVID-19 hospitalizations. Only a handful of influenza tests have even been ran: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ In all likelihood, yes we are nearing heard immunity and we're done with the illness. Further, there's an issue with the PCR testing. Though there have been reports since August - October 2020, published in November 2020: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346483715_External_peer_review_of_the_RTPCR_test_to_detect_SARS-CoV-2_reveals_10_major_scientific_flaws_at_the_molecular_and_methodological_level_consequences_for_false_positive_results https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346483715_External_... Basically, they started over amplifying the DNA and weren't controlling the PCR tests very well. Here's the original WHO warning in December 2020 https://web.archive.org/web/20210102051357/https://www.who.int/news/item/14-12-2020-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users https://web.archive.org/web/20210102051357/https://www.who.i... (Since... the page has been deleted, but followed later) With the official statement January 19, 2020: https://www.who.int/news/item/19-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2021-01 https://www.who.int/news/item/19-01-2021-who-information-not...

adventured 6y ago
> They've been counting any flu related illness as COVID What you're claiming doesn't pass any sniff test what-so-ever. Low tens of thousands of people die in a typical year from the flu (in the US). The US is seeing that many deaths from Covid every ten days now. There's no evidence the US is close to herd immunity. Deaths just hit a new daily record high two days ago. Daily case numbers have been raging at present high levels for over six weeks with zero sign of stopping naturally. The vaccines are clearly the only thing that's going to slow it during this season.
throwaway2245 6y ago
> They've been counting any flu related illness as COVID There are no flu related illnesses: the 2020-21 winter flu season has not happened. Here are the results for the last 12 months of WHO's influenza monitoring (you may have to pick a country). They are conducting global testing at or above normal levels: https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=1 https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=1 If you look closely enough at the x-axis, you might be able to see how much flu there is.
selimthegrim 6y ago
Herd immunity...against which variant?
selimthegrim 6y ago
As far as Ct goes, 25-30 should do it. Even Fauci says >30-35 or so is dead fragments. Do you think everyone is doing 40?

mywittyname 6y ago

>that would mean 76% of Americans have had the disease, which I believe would be sufficient for herd immunity. My understanding is that it is possible to get covid-19 multiple times. But lack of widespread testing is making it difficult to measure how prevalent this is. There are also two known strains of covid. There are a lot of unknowns at this point. We could be dealing with cyclical covid outbreaks for the next decade, the vaccine rollout this summer might eliminate it for good, or we could land somewhere between the two.

jeofken 6y ago

A very large amount of cases are simply false positives. We have no idea how widespread the disease is, but it’s certainly less spread and deadly than feared. This has been talked about in non-mainstream news for a while, but is only recently recognised in the state and big media organisations around the western world. Like terrorism was in the 00’s, this is proving very useful for those who want to expand their power via the state. https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/letters-health-care-providers/potential-false-positive-results-antigen-tests-rapid-detection-sars-cov-2-letter-clinical-laboratory https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/letters-health-care-prov...

xur17 6y ago
> We have no idea how widespread the disease is, but it’s certainly less spread and deadly than feared. These 2 statements seem to contradict each other. If it's less spread than feared / reported, that would mean it's more deadly than reported.
- jeofken 6y ago
  Would you show me the contradiction in more detail please? When talking about case numbers, it’s (very) inflated by the large number of false positives in PCR tests. When speaking of deaths, at least where I’m around (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Germany) the reported numbers are people dead who also tested positive for covid-19. I suppose reported deaths work similarity elsewhere. The claim about 2020 being the best year in decades for those who want to concentrate statist power I guess we can agree to be objectively true.