5 ms·

The 2030 date will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. So long as "everybody" truly believes the Governments threat to effectively ban ICE sales after 2030, then cle

by tyho 6y ago

The 2030 date will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. So long as "everybody" truly believes the Governments threat to effectively ban ICE sales after 2030, then clear economic opportunities to service the future demand for electric cars and charging infrastructure become apparent. This sidesteps the issues with network effects. You don't have to worry about building a charging network before electric cars become widespread, because the Government is sending a clear signal of when that transition will happen.

rasz 6y ago
Just like Brexit.
0xffff2 6y ago
>So long as "everybody" truly believes the Governments threat to effectively ban ICE sales after 2030 Will anyone believe that though? Given the propensity of virtually all governments worldwide to do less than promised and the overwhelming amount of infrastructure still needed, I don't take this date seriously at all.
- Gwypaas 6y ago
  The EU legislation regarding CO2 emissions has teeth, and no respite has been given. This is the reason so many PHEVs are being introduced lately, they are about the only way to comply except pure BEVs. Sure, UK is not EU anymore but the legislation is felt worldwide. Before 2020: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/cars_en https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/cars_... From 2020 onwards: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regul...
  - buran77 6y ago
    > they are about the only way to comply except pure BEVs On paper. In reality [0][1] unless you drive all electric all or most of the time the actual, real life CO2 emissions are far worse. Because now you have an ICE engine that hauls around an extra battery and electric motor, occasionally inefficiently charging the battery by burning gasoline. Many (most?) PHEVs owners don't have charging at home (reason to buy hybrid), and the rest of the charging infrastructure is far more inconvenient to use than a gas station. Depending on where you live it may also prove more expensive to drive electric. Add to this the small battery and you see why most of them are driven mostly in ICE mode. This being said, if I were in the market for a new car I really wouldn't care about what the government promises will happen in 2030. I'd look around to see what makes sense for me. Is the government doing anything about it? Are they heavily investing in making this a reality (new chargers, new electrical infrastructure, etc.)? Talk is cheap. [0] https://theicct.org/publications/phev-real-world-usage-sept2020 https://theicct.org/publications/phev-real-world-usage-sept2... [1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/05/revealed-plug-in-hybrid-cars-emit-three-times-co2-real-world/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/05/revealed-plug-in...
    - gambiting 6y ago
      I bought a PHEV a year ago and the fuel savings are enormous. I've been filling it up once every 3 months so far, most of my journeys are done in fully electric mode, and when they are not I'm averaging 100-150mpg. Charging at home is pretty easy, but I do have my own driveway which I realize a lot of people don't. But yes, UK company tax structure around them is absolutely broken. You can get one, get a massive tax discount, and then simply never charge it, resulting in higher emissions than in a normal car, and yet keep the low emissions discount. It's stupid. I think you should have to prove that you're actually using the EV capabilities, otherwise it's just straight up fraud.
      - Gwypaas 6y ago
        I think the question is where we want to be in 5 years, not being blinded by aiming for perfect or nothing today. The ability to charge will drive infrastructure investments from the bottom up. Especially if it's cheaper than fossil fuels. My guess is we will start to see charging mentioned as a selling point in real estate ads in the coming years. Same with charging at stores or similar, although that is more limited. All while helping BEVs become even more attractive.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
      - buran77 6y ago
        This just confirms what I said above, if you drive them all electric it's great, they're an EV with a small battery. But if you can't and just charge occasionally the fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are nowhere close to the official numbers, as evidenced by the studies I linked above. I see this struck a nerve with some people but the reality is that those are only best case and the people who meet them are the long tail of the numbers. And that's the crux of the matter, most people buy hybrids because they can't charge at home. Those cars end up driving a lot on gas. If you can't conveniently charge at home or at work, waiting for 1.5-2h to charge for 40-50Km is far less appealing than 3 minutes for 500Km worth of gas. Place more chargers and make gas more expensive than electricity and the situation would probably change. One specific German manufacturer featured in the studies I linked above sees most of the kilometers driven in their hybrids using the ICE, with a lot of that time the ICE inefficiently charging the battery, and almost cancelling out the fuel efficiency brought by the electrification. The number of people who see anything close to the officially estimated fuel consumption or CO2 emissions is vanishingly low. And the manufacturer knows it but they aren't ready with EVs, they have to meet new fleet regulations, and they wanted to benefit from the incentives the German government offers to manufacturers for any EV or PHEV. Looking at a family member in this situation (the one who provided me with the statistics from the manufacturer), they drove ~2000Km in a brand new PHEV with ~11 liters + 9KWh per 100Km. The manufacturer suggests ~2 liters per 100Km. That's where most efficiency numbers revolve for that particular PHEV. It doesn't help that where they live in Germany charging the battery at a public charger even when assuming the full ~40Km range is 30% more expensive per Km than filling the tank but this is a local issue that's not generally applicable.
imtringued 6y ago
The government has no skin in the game. If manufacturers can't keep up with demand then the promise is meaningless.
viraptor 6y ago
> So long as "everybody" truly believes the Governments threat to effectively ban ICE sales after 2030 Does "everybody" matter in this case? The reality for the manufacturers is that they need designs, standard, deals, factories, production lines ready years before 2030 if the ban actually happens. So it's really a question whether they believe the plan, or are they ready to call the bluff and go out of business if they're wrong.

by tyho 6y ago

rasz 6y ago

Just like Brexit.

0xffff2 6y ago

>So long as "everybody" truly believes the Governments threat to effectively ban ICE sales after 2030 Will anyone believe that though? Given the propensity of virtually all governments worldwide to do less than promised and the overwhelming amount of infrastructure still needed, I don't take this date seriously at all.

Gwypaas 6y ago
The EU legislation regarding CO2 emissions has teeth, and no respite has been given. This is the reason so many PHEVs are being introduced lately, they are about the only way to comply except pure BEVs. Sure, UK is not EU anymore but the legislation is felt worldwide. Before 2020: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/cars_en https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/cars_... From 2020 onwards: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regul...
- buran77 6y ago
  > they are about the only way to comply except pure BEVs On paper. In reality [0][1] unless you drive all electric all or most of the time the actual, real life CO2 emissions are far worse. Because now you have an ICE engine that hauls around an extra battery and electric motor, occasionally inefficiently charging the battery by burning gasoline. Many (most?) PHEVs owners don't have charging at home (reason to buy hybrid), and the rest of the charging infrastructure is far more inconvenient to use than a gas station. Depending on where you live it may also prove more expensive to drive electric. Add to this the small battery and you see why most of them are driven mostly in ICE mode. This being said, if I were in the market for a new car I really wouldn't care about what the government promises will happen in 2030. I'd look around to see what makes sense for me. Is the government doing anything about it? Are they heavily investing in making this a reality (new chargers, new electrical infrastructure, etc.)? Talk is cheap. [0] https://theicct.org/publications/phev-real-world-usage-sept2020 https://theicct.org/publications/phev-real-world-usage-sept2... [1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/05/revealed-plug-in-hybrid-cars-emit-three-times-co2-real-world/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/05/revealed-plug-in...
  - gambiting 6y ago
    I bought a PHEV a year ago and the fuel savings are enormous. I've been filling it up once every 3 months so far, most of my journeys are done in fully electric mode, and when they are not I'm averaging 100-150mpg. Charging at home is pretty easy, but I do have my own driveway which I realize a lot of people don't. But yes, UK company tax structure around them is absolutely broken. You can get one, get a massive tax discount, and then simply never charge it, resulting in higher emissions than in a normal car, and yet keep the low emissions discount. It's stupid. I think you should have to prove that you're actually using the EV capabilities, otherwise it's just straight up fraud.
    - Gwypaas 6y ago
      I think the question is where we want to be in 5 years, not being blinded by aiming for perfect or nothing today. The ability to charge will drive infrastructure investments from the bottom up. Especially if it's cheaper than fossil fuels. My guess is we will start to see charging mentioned as a selling point in real estate ads in the coming years. Same with charging at stores or similar, although that is more limited. All while helping BEVs become even more attractive.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - buran77 6y ago
      This just confirms what I said above, if you drive them all electric it's great, they're an EV with a small battery. But if you can't and just charge occasionally the fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are nowhere close to the official numbers, as evidenced by the studies I linked above. I see this struck a nerve with some people but the reality is that those are only best case and the people who meet them are the long tail of the numbers. And that's the crux of the matter, most people buy hybrids because they can't charge at home. Those cars end up driving a lot on gas. If you can't conveniently charge at home or at work, waiting for 1.5-2h to charge for 40-50Km is far less appealing than 3 minutes for 500Km worth of gas. Place more chargers and make gas more expensive than electricity and the situation would probably change. One specific German manufacturer featured in the studies I linked above sees most of the kilometers driven in their hybrids using the ICE, with a lot of that time the ICE inefficiently charging the battery, and almost cancelling out the fuel efficiency brought by the electrification. The number of people who see anything close to the officially estimated fuel consumption or CO2 emissions is vanishingly low. And the manufacturer knows it but they aren't ready with EVs, they have to meet new fleet regulations, and they wanted to benefit from the incentives the German government offers to manufacturers for any EV or PHEV. Looking at a family member in this situation (the one who provided me with the statistics from the manufacturer), they drove ~2000Km in a brand new PHEV with ~11 liters + 9KWh per 100Km. The manufacturer suggests ~2 liters per 100Km. That's where most efficiency numbers revolve for that particular PHEV. It doesn't help that where they live in Germany charging the battery at a public charger even when assuming the full ~40Km range is 30% more expensive per Km than filling the tank but this is a local issue that's not generally applicable.

imtringued 6y ago

The government has no skin in the game. If manufacturers can't keep up with demand then the promise is meaningless.

viraptor 6y ago

> So long as "everybody" truly believes the Governments threat to effectively ban ICE sales after 2030 Does "everybody" matter in this case? The reality for the manufacturers is that they need designs, standard, deals, factories, production lines ready years before 2030 if the ban actually happens. So it's really a question whether they believe the plan, or are they ready to call the bluff and go out of business if they're wrong.