4 ms·

What does that have to do with anything? Her job was a web developer, not a data scientist. None of those qualify her to understand statistics better than the p

by jjcon 6y ago

What does that have to do with anything? Her job was a web developer, not a data scientist. None of those qualify her to understand statistics better than the plethora of those employed by the state that are working diligently. Plenty of employees have been let go for spreading falsities around COVID, most having been on the other side (COVID isn’t real etc). These behaviors are absolutely unacceptable and are dangerous.

nix23 6y ago
>>where she completed course work with an emphasis on data science and was working on a doctoral dissertation titled Using Native American Sitescapes to Extend the North American Paleotempestological Record Through Coupled Remote Sensing and Climatological Analysis. >None of those qualify her to understand statistics better than the plethora of those employed by the state that are working diligently. Is your society really that stupid that you have to be a specialist to understand statistics?
- jjcon 6y ago
  Taking a stats class does not a data scientist make. COVID statistics can be very very difficult to interpret, especially at the beginning when data was scarce. Edit to add example : For instance, most people agree it is best to exclude totally random testing sites from COVID numbers because even though the false positive rate is very low, at the beginning so was the incidence of COVID which means most of the positive tests would be false positive. Including them or improperly dealing with that data would be considered base rate fallacy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy This is just one statistical phenomenon that has to be dealt with. It’s complicated and sometimes messy but it absolutely requires top minds
  - nix23 6y ago
    Are you even capable of reading? No wonder you need a specialist to "decipher" simple data as covid-cases/day. EDIT: Why are you changing your comment to that extend. That's not honest anymore. Bye
    - dang 6y ago
      Posting like this and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25811860 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25811860 and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25802483 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25802483 is unacceptable and will get you banned on HN, regardless of how wrong someone else is or you feel they are. Please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules from now on.
- andybak 6y ago
  Statistics is one field in particular where it's easy for non-experts to reach completely false conclusions.
  - nix23 6y ago
    True with complex stuff, but we talk about covid-cases/day/region...that's really something everyone should interpret correctly.
    - jjcon 6y ago
      COVID statistics can be very very difficult to interpret correctly, especially at the beginning when data was scarce. For instance, most people agree it is best to exclude totally random testing sites from COVID numbers because even though the false positive rate is very low, at the beginning so was the incidence of COVID which means most of the positive tests would be false positive. Including them or improperly dealing with that data would be considered base rate fallacy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy This is just one statistical phenomenon that has to be dealt with. It’s complicated and sometimes messy but it absolutely requires top minds
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      Proper interpretation of even the simplest data is easy to get wrong. For example, I routinely see smart, well-informed people describe the number of Covid deaths reported in a day as the number of people who died of Covid that day.
    - hedora 6y ago
      Yeah; some sibling comments here say Covid stats are difficult to interpret, but cite phenomena (non random samples, false positives, conflation of population and sample statistics, etc) that should be covered by any reasonable introductory statistics course. In the US, that’s first or second year undergrad territory. Overseas, it’s often covered in high school. It’s particularly depressing that science reporters regularly get these things wrong. I can’t imagine what (lack of) credentials are necessary to land such a job, but I often wonder if a basic understanding of statistics is a disqualifying credential.
- YetAnotherNick 6y ago
  Lots of highly educated people are on opposite side that lockdowns are very unneeded and government is overplaying/lying about the severity including the one who founded most valuable space company.
  - nix23 6y ago
    >including the one who founded most valuable space company. I wonder why would he say that ;)

by jjcon 6y ago

nix23 6y ago

>>where she completed course work with an emphasis on data science and was working on a doctoral dissertation titled Using Native American Sitescapes to Extend the North American Paleotempestological Record Through Coupled Remote Sensing and Climatological Analysis. >None of those qualify her to understand statistics better than the plethora of those employed by the state that are working diligently. Is your society really that stupid that you have to be a specialist to understand statistics?

jjcon 6y ago
Taking a stats class does not a data scientist make. COVID statistics can be very very difficult to interpret, especially at the beginning when data was scarce. Edit to add example : For instance, most people agree it is best to exclude totally random testing sites from COVID numbers because even though the false positive rate is very low, at the beginning so was the incidence of COVID which means most of the positive tests would be false positive. Including them or improperly dealing with that data would be considered base rate fallacy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy This is just one statistical phenomenon that has to be dealt with. It’s complicated and sometimes messy but it absolutely requires top minds
- nix23 6y ago
  Are you even capable of reading? No wonder you need a specialist to "decipher" simple data as covid-cases/day. EDIT: Why are you changing your comment to that extend. That's not honest anymore. Bye
  - dang 6y ago
    Posting like this and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25811860 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25811860 and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25802483 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25802483 is unacceptable and will get you banned on HN, regardless of how wrong someone else is or you feel they are. Please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules from now on.
andybak 6y ago
Statistics is one field in particular where it's easy for non-experts to reach completely false conclusions.
- nix23 6y ago
  True with complex stuff, but we talk about covid-cases/day/region...that's really something everyone should interpret correctly.
  - jjcon 6y ago
    COVID statistics can be very very difficult to interpret correctly, especially at the beginning when data was scarce. For instance, most people agree it is best to exclude totally random testing sites from COVID numbers because even though the false positive rate is very low, at the beginning so was the incidence of COVID which means most of the positive tests would be false positive. Including them or improperly dealing with that data would be considered base rate fallacy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy This is just one statistical phenomenon that has to be dealt with. It’s complicated and sometimes messy but it absolutely requires top minds
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    Proper interpretation of even the simplest data is easy to get wrong. For example, I routinely see smart, well-informed people describe the number of Covid deaths reported in a day as the number of people who died of Covid that day.
  - hedora 6y ago
    Yeah; some sibling comments here say Covid stats are difficult to interpret, but cite phenomena (non random samples, false positives, conflation of population and sample statistics, etc) that should be covered by any reasonable introductory statistics course. In the US, that’s first or second year undergrad territory. Overseas, it’s often covered in high school. It’s particularly depressing that science reporters regularly get these things wrong. I can’t imagine what (lack of) credentials are necessary to land such a job, but I often wonder if a basic understanding of statistics is a disqualifying credential.
YetAnotherNick 6y ago
Lots of highly educated people are on opposite side that lockdowns are very unneeded and government is overplaying/lying about the severity including the one who founded most valuable space company.
- nix23 6y ago
  >including the one who founded most valuable space company. I wonder why would he say that ;)