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>> ...the CDC models project that 70 MILLION Americans have already gotten sick with symptomatic Covid, but decided to just write it off as a bad cold and never
by scarmig 6y ago
>> ...the CDC models project that 70 MILLION Americans have already gotten sick with symptomatic Covid, but decided to just write it off as a bad cold and never got tested...
> Why is this hard to believe?
I don't agree with the article more broadly, but it does make the point that 70 million prior infections isn't consistent with hospitalization numbers over the summer vs now. The only way I can reconcile those numbers is by adding two assumptions: first, that severity depends on initial viral dose; second, various social and weather patterns associated with summer drive lower initial viral doses. I don't think these are implausible assumptions--in fact, I'd guess they're true--but I would need significantly more evidence to make me think they account for many tens of millions of missed COVID cases.
- nradov 6y agoThere is really no reliable evidence that symptom severity is correlated with initial viral dose. It's a plausible hypothesis but remains unproven.
- 8note 6y agoThere's another assumption you can add - that some people are more susceptible than others. A good portion of hospitalizations and deaths have been the elderly via nursing homes. If those have become safer, it'd make sense that we can have more cases without heavily increasing hospitalizations
- candiodari 6y agoThey have become safer by adapting ... and by having the most vulnerable filtered out by earlier waves.