4 ms·

> Using data from flu monitoring programs in prior years, the CDC models project that 70 MILLION Americans have already gotten sick with symptomatic Covid, but

> Using data from flu monitoring programs in prior years, the CDC models project that 70 MILLION Americans have already gotten sick with symptomatic Covid, but decided to just write it off as a bad cold and never got tested. I am not making this up. In Bangladesh, a well-regarded study found that 45% of people in Dhaka, one of the most densely populated regions in the world, had antibodies. This study was conducted between April 18 and July 5. I'm sure the number is much higher now. And most people around me seem to agree with this- our total deaths so far is 1/50 of USA, despite having 1/2 population. Even if we multiply our total deaths by 5 to account for maybe government cover-up, our death rate/infection rate still seems too low. Widespread immunity appears to be the only explanation for this disparity. [1] https://bdnews24.com/bangladesh/2020/10/12/45-percent-of-dhaka-residents-carry-covid-19-antibodies-study https://bdnews24.com/bangladesh/2020/10/12/45-percent-of-dha...

nradov 6y ago
A similar study in part of India found an antibody seroprevalence rate of 57% and a corresponding IFR under 0.1%. https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/57-sero-prevalence-in-slums-16-in-non-slums-in-mumbai-says-survey-of-3-wards-6475141.htm https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/57-sero-prevalence-in-sl... There could be other explanations beyond widespread existing immunity. For example could diet be a factor?
- BillyTheKing 6y ago
  the most likely explanation is just age-distribution. The vast majority of our covid-fatalities are older than 70, most are 80 or older. To make things worse, many of them live in retirement homes which turn into death traps once the virus entered. That's all fairly unique to Western societies and is definitely one explanation for vastly different IFRs.
  - umanwizard 6y ago
    As an Indian acquaintance explained to me bluntly: if you were going to die of Covid, in that part of the world you've probably already died of something else.

nradov 6y ago

A similar study in part of India found an antibody seroprevalence rate of 57% and a corresponding IFR under 0.1%. https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/57-sero-prevalence-in-slums-16-in-non-slums-in-mumbai-says-survey-of-3-wards-6475141.htm https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/57-sero-prevalence-in-sl... There could be other explanations beyond widespread existing immunity. For example could diet be a factor?

BillyTheKing 6y ago
the most likely explanation is just age-distribution. The vast majority of our covid-fatalities are older than 70, most are 80 or older. To make things worse, many of them live in retirement homes which turn into death traps once the virus entered. That's all fairly unique to Western societies and is definitely one explanation for vastly different IFRs.
- umanwizard 6y ago
  As an Indian acquaintance explained to me bluntly: if you were going to die of Covid, in that part of the world you've probably already died of something else.