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The article spends a long time complaining about the high "unreported infection" numbers used by CDC models, but doesn't actually address the biggest piece of e
by HALtheWise 6y ago
The article spends a long time complaining about the high "unreported infection" numbers used by CDC models, but doesn't actually address the biggest piece of evidence, which is seroprevalence surveys. For example, https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/01/study-us-covid-cases-deaths-far-higher-reported https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/01/study-us... claims 15% of US residents had COVID antibodies in mid-November, and if you want to claim a number that disagrees with that, you at least need to address the evidence.
- boffinism 6y agoTo be fair, the study you linked suggests 45m have had COVID, and the CDC model assumes 100m have had Covid, of whom 70m were symptomatic. So it actually appears to undermine CDC and support the article.
- ricardobeat 6y agoIt's from mid November. Since then, at a near 200k/day rate, another 10M+ diagnosed cases have been recorded. In other words: that article extrapolates from the CDC report of 10 million cases in November, and that is now sitting at around 23M. If anything, the estimate should be way above 70M.
- bpodgursky 6y agoAlso, antibodies often don't linger more than a few months, and the immunity is handled by memory cells instead. So that 15% is just a window.