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To me this description sounds like a specialist high performance computing company rather than a consumer technology company. That may be a perfectly reasonable

To me this description sounds like a specialist high performance computing company rather than a consumer technology company. That may be a perfectly reasonable market to be in, but is that type of company worth $200bn? I'm not sure. Roughly 40% of their revenue is consumer chips where, apart from some games optimisation, they are no longer standing out from the crowd, and the leader is arguably Apple, with AMD doing well. The next ~30% of their business is servers, where there may be a significant number of HPC clients, but the bulk of this is again likely to be VMs running non-Intel specific software, and this market is starting to realise that Intel is nothing special here. Looking at their revenue breakdown, I struggle to put more than 20% into the things that you mention they are great at. Should they focus on this? It would lose them much of their market cap if they did.

fxtentacle 6y ago
I agree with your market breakdown, but surely not with your assessment. In the consumer segment, you have regular people trying to make vacation videos with software like Adobe Premiere and Adobe Media Encoder, or Magix. Nvenc quality is bad. AMD is horribly slow. The only fast high quality encode is with Intel's dedicated CPU instructions, which both apps heavily promote to their users. And the 30% that you mention that run VMs... Wouldn't they be pretty happy if Intel added dedicated CPU instructions to make VMware better? I agree that for the work that I do, AMD is as good as or better. But people doing highly parallelizable tasks like compiling are the minority.
- danpalmer 6y ago
  I think you might over estimate the prevalence of video editing software like this. Adobe don't appear to sell consumer versions anymore, it's only pro subscriptions now. Magix is sold at a "vacation video friendly" price, but doesn't mention Intel in their marketing material. I just don't think the market for home devices is thinking about their video encoding time when they buy a laptop, but I do think they'll use an M1 Mac and find it surprisingly fast, or hear from a friend or family member that they are really good. Intel just haven't been optimising for the main user experience seen by these people, or those writing "normal" server software either. They've been pushing AVX512 instead, which looks good for video or things like that, but not for regular use-cases. Another good example is how fast the M1 chips (and the A chips in iPhones) perform at Javascript benchmarks. Those benchmarks look a lot more like what most people are doing most of the time than video encoding benchmarks.
  - mcosta 6y ago
    > but I do think they'll use an M1 Mac and find it surprisingly fast, or hear from a friend or family member that they are really good. That only happens in California.
  - fxtentacle 6y ago
    MAGIX heavily mentions Intel in their marketing. "4K Ultra HD video editing with Intel and MAGIX" "Enjoy HD Video editing with Magix Movie Editor Pro and Intel Iris Graphics" "Edit in 4K Ultra HD" + Intel Logo "Finish and Share videos quickly with Intel Iris Graphics" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT9KOtN7KFM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT9KOtN7KFM Plus, as a user of the software, I can tell you that if you tick the "Hardware Acceleration" checkbox on AMD, a popup will tell you to buy a supported Intel CPU and then turn the checkbox off again. BTW I'm picking Magix here because in the local electronics store, that's the video software that you can buy as a box and that is featured in bundles with Intel laptops. So if someone clueless walks in there and says they need video editing, this is most likely what they will end up with.
    - fomine3 6y ago
      It's not just marketing but also uses Intel QSV. AMD RADEON has similar feature VCE but its quality is relatively bad and its adoption isn't well, compared to QSV/NVEnc.
- ghaff 6y ago
  >if Intel added dedicated CPU instructions to make VMware better They (and AMD) did years ago. Intel VT.
- 0xEFF 6y ago
  > And the 30% that you mention that run VMs... Wouldn't they be pretty happy if Intel added dedicated CPU instructions to make VMware better? They have this today. What would make them happier is cutting power utilization by half or more, which is looking quite possible with non-Intel Silicon.
- CyberDildonics 6y ago
  > AMD is horribly slow. The only fast high quality encode is with Intel's dedicated CPU instructions, You might need a source for that.
  - fxtentacle 6y ago
    Intel Core i7 6700K is double the FPS of AMD Ryzen 5 1600X https://www.magix.info/de/forum/ein-performancetest-zwischen-amd-und-intel--1191968/ https://www.magix.info/de/forum/ein-performancetest-zwischen...
    - sq_ 6y ago
      Seems like the clock, RAM, and GPU differences there may have had an effect? Comparing between systems that different seems unusual.
    - malinens 6y ago
      this is article from 2017 which compares 5 generation old cpu vs other 5 generation old CPU
    - nathannecro 6y ago
      Uh, those numbers are more than three/five years old at this point. Beyond comments on the test bench not being properly set up, Ryzen has improved significantly since then. AMD's latest consumer-level chips significantly outperform Intel's chips in both price and performance. When talking about prosumer video editing performance, the Ryzen 9 5900x, the second most expensive "new" chip from AMD is a 3.4% performance improvement over Intel's most expensive "new" chip 10980XE. Additionally, the 5900x retails for $549 USD while the 10980XE retails for about $1,000 USD. https://www.pugetsystems.com/labs/articles/Adobe-Premiere-Pro-AMD-Ryzen-5000-Series-CPU-Performance-1960/#BenchmarkResults https://www.pugetsystems.com/labs/articles/Adobe-Premiere-Pr...
    - karavelov 6y ago
      On first generation Ryzen AVX2 instructions were executed as 2 AVX instructions as the AVX pipeline was 128 bits wide. This was fixed in Zen 2 and nowadays we are at Zen 3.
- sq_ 6y ago
  > AMD is horribly slow Not sure where you're getting that these days? Absolutely in the days of Bulldozer, but AMD's Zen 3 architecture has taken even the single core lead from Intel, not to mention the multi core lead they've held for several years now.
  - mhh__ 6y ago
    The encoder? AMDs GPU encoder still lags a way behind Nvidia for example
tw04 6y ago
>Roughly 40% of their revenue is consumer chips where, apart from some games optimisation, they are no longer standing out from the crowd, and the leader is arguably Apple, with AMD doing well. You lost me at Apple. Apple owns around 15% of the PC market space and almost the entirety of that is Intel-based systems. Outside of HN, nobody cares about the M1 chip, it isn't a selling point to my mom or her friends. If someone at the Apple store recommends it they might buy it instead of an intel-based system but it definitely isn't something they're seeking out. The only threat Intel has right now in the consumer space is AMD, and it's a very real threat. AMD won both Sony and Microsoft console designs, and the mobile Ryzen 5000 chips released at CES look to have enough OEM design wins to put a serious hurt on Intel in 2021. Even if Apple goes 100% M1, there's the other 85% of the market that Intel is likely far more concerned about.
- parasubvert 6y ago
  I think you are vastly underestimating the revolution of what the M1 represents to the PC industry.
  - tw04 6y ago
    I think you are vastly overestimating the "revolution" of what the M1 represents to the industry. Apple isn't selling it to any other PC makers, and corporations aren't pivoting away from Microsoft for a CPU. Every single ARM chip that's been targeted at the Windows world has produced yawn-inducing performance.
  - icedchai 6y ago
    M1 is amazing. I think people are also underestimating how fast Intel can catch up.
  - fxtentacle 6y ago
    I think you are vastly underestimating how hard IT departments will kick you if you request or bring a device that cannot properly execute the company-critical legacy Windows x64 software. Like SAP, for example. (SAP is the largest non-American software company by revenue and does business management, workflow automation, and bookkeeping) My prediction is that outside of hipster startups, M1 will have no effect on business laptop sales.

fxtentacle 6y ago

I agree with your market breakdown, but surely not with your assessment. In the consumer segment, you have regular people trying to make vacation videos with software like Adobe Premiere and Adobe Media Encoder, or Magix. Nvenc quality is bad. AMD is horribly slow. The only fast high quality encode is with Intel's dedicated CPU instructions, which both apps heavily promote to their users. And the 30% that you mention that run VMs... Wouldn't they be pretty happy if Intel added dedicated CPU instructions to make VMware better? I agree that for the work that I do, AMD is as good as or better. But people doing highly parallelizable tasks like compiling are the minority.

danpalmer 6y ago
I think you might over estimate the prevalence of video editing software like this. Adobe don't appear to sell consumer versions anymore, it's only pro subscriptions now. Magix is sold at a "vacation video friendly" price, but doesn't mention Intel in their marketing material. I just don't think the market for home devices is thinking about their video encoding time when they buy a laptop, but I do think they'll use an M1 Mac and find it surprisingly fast, or hear from a friend or family member that they are really good. Intel just haven't been optimising for the main user experience seen by these people, or those writing "normal" server software either. They've been pushing AVX512 instead, which looks good for video or things like that, but not for regular use-cases. Another good example is how fast the M1 chips (and the A chips in iPhones) perform at Javascript benchmarks. Those benchmarks look a lot more like what most people are doing most of the time than video encoding benchmarks.
- mcosta 6y ago
  > but I do think they'll use an M1 Mac and find it surprisingly fast, or hear from a friend or family member that they are really good. That only happens in California.
- fxtentacle 6y ago
  MAGIX heavily mentions Intel in their marketing. "4K Ultra HD video editing with Intel and MAGIX" "Enjoy HD Video editing with Magix Movie Editor Pro and Intel Iris Graphics" "Edit in 4K Ultra HD" + Intel Logo "Finish and Share videos quickly with Intel Iris Graphics" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT9KOtN7KFM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT9KOtN7KFM Plus, as a user of the software, I can tell you that if you tick the "Hardware Acceleration" checkbox on AMD, a popup will tell you to buy a supported Intel CPU and then turn the checkbox off again. BTW I'm picking Magix here because in the local electronics store, that's the video software that you can buy as a box and that is featured in bundles with Intel laptops. So if someone clueless walks in there and says they need video editing, this is most likely what they will end up with.
  - fomine3 6y ago
    It's not just marketing but also uses Intel QSV. AMD RADEON has similar feature VCE but its quality is relatively bad and its adoption isn't well, compared to QSV/NVEnc.
ghaff 6y ago
>if Intel added dedicated CPU instructions to make VMware better They (and AMD) did years ago. Intel VT.
0xEFF 6y ago
> And the 30% that you mention that run VMs... Wouldn't they be pretty happy if Intel added dedicated CPU instructions to make VMware better? They have this today. What would make them happier is cutting power utilization by half or more, which is looking quite possible with non-Intel Silicon.
CyberDildonics 6y ago
> AMD is horribly slow. The only fast high quality encode is with Intel's dedicated CPU instructions, You might need a source for that.
- fxtentacle 6y ago
  Intel Core i7 6700K is double the FPS of AMD Ryzen 5 1600X https://www.magix.info/de/forum/ein-performancetest-zwischen-amd-und-intel--1191968/ https://www.magix.info/de/forum/ein-performancetest-zwischen...
  - sq_ 6y ago
    Seems like the clock, RAM, and GPU differences there may have had an effect? Comparing between systems that different seems unusual.
  - malinens 6y ago
    this is article from 2017 which compares 5 generation old cpu vs other 5 generation old CPU
  - nathannecro 6y ago
    Uh, those numbers are more than three/five years old at this point. Beyond comments on the test bench not being properly set up, Ryzen has improved significantly since then. AMD's latest consumer-level chips significantly outperform Intel's chips in both price and performance. When talking about prosumer video editing performance, the Ryzen 9 5900x, the second most expensive "new" chip from AMD is a 3.4% performance improvement over Intel's most expensive "new" chip 10980XE. Additionally, the 5900x retails for $549 USD while the 10980XE retails for about $1,000 USD. https://www.pugetsystems.com/labs/articles/Adobe-Premiere-Pro-AMD-Ryzen-5000-Series-CPU-Performance-1960/#BenchmarkResults https://www.pugetsystems.com/labs/articles/Adobe-Premiere-Pr...
  - karavelov 6y ago
    On first generation Ryzen AVX2 instructions were executed as 2 AVX instructions as the AVX pipeline was 128 bits wide. This was fixed in Zen 2 and nowadays we are at Zen 3.
sq_ 6y ago
> AMD is horribly slow Not sure where you're getting that these days? Absolutely in the days of Bulldozer, but AMD's Zen 3 architecture has taken even the single core lead from Intel, not to mention the multi core lead they've held for several years now.
- mhh__ 6y ago
  The encoder? AMDs GPU encoder still lags a way behind Nvidia for example

tw04 6y ago

>Roughly 40% of their revenue is consumer chips where, apart from some games optimisation, they are no longer standing out from the crowd, and the leader is arguably Apple, with AMD doing well. You lost me at Apple. Apple owns around 15% of the PC market space and almost the entirety of that is Intel-based systems. Outside of HN, nobody cares about the M1 chip, it isn't a selling point to my mom or her friends. If someone at the Apple store recommends it they might buy it instead of an intel-based system but it definitely isn't something they're seeking out. The only threat Intel has right now in the consumer space is AMD, and it's a very real threat. AMD won both Sony and Microsoft console designs, and the mobile Ryzen 5000 chips released at CES look to have enough OEM design wins to put a serious hurt on Intel in 2021. Even if Apple goes 100% M1, there's the other 85% of the market that Intel is likely far more concerned about.

parasubvert 6y ago
I think you are vastly underestimating the revolution of what the M1 represents to the PC industry.
- tw04 6y ago
  I think you are vastly overestimating the "revolution" of what the M1 represents to the industry. Apple isn't selling it to any other PC makers, and corporations aren't pivoting away from Microsoft for a CPU. Every single ARM chip that's been targeted at the Windows world has produced yawn-inducing performance.
- icedchai 6y ago
  M1 is amazing. I think people are also underestimating how fast Intel can catch up.
- fxtentacle 6y ago
  I think you are vastly underestimating how hard IT departments will kick you if you request or bring a device that cannot properly execute the company-critical legacy Windows x64 software. Like SAP, for example. (SAP is the largest non-American software company by revenue and does business management, workflow automation, and bookkeeping) My prediction is that outside of hipster startups, M1 will have no effect on business laptop sales.