12 ms·

“A Headline That Will Make Global-Warming Activists Apoplectic”

91 points by luu 6y ago

ashtonkem 6y ago
> Cute contrarian takes and “repugnant ideas” can be Freakonomically fun, but they don’t always have much to do with reality. This has been on my mind a lot. Everyone wants to be the contrarian who ends up being right and hailed as a genius. It’s the intellectual equivalent of nailing the game winning 3 pointer. But it is very dangerous to pursue being a contrarian on purpose. Being contrary to popular opinion is an awful heuristic for correctness, and quite often it leads towards you just being a crank and not being correct.
- spamizbad 6y ago
  You're absolutely right. Contrarianism has taken off as a brand-building and clout-chasing tactics for writers and other public figures. They've figured out there's little downside to being wrong about some in the public discourse. You only need to get lucky once and you've struck gold. It works even better today because algorithms will jolt you to the top because you're controversial. It's gotten to the point where contrarian YouTbers will even have dumb little turf wars. If you are simply seeking the truth, why should you care that someone else agrees with you... oh they're stealing eyeballs? Ah, I see!
  - yjftsjthsd-h 6y ago
    > If you are simply seeking the truth, why should you care that someone else agrees with you... oh they're stealing eyeballs? Ah, I see! I can imagine objecting to the most eyeballs going to the wrong conclusion.
    - simplemen 6y ago
      I think parent meant they both have same "truth" but pissed that they cannot have all the eyeballs.
      - quickthrower2 6y ago
        We’re talking about flat earth people I’m guessing. They have various pissing contests.
- peteretep 6y ago
  > But it is very dangerous to pursue being a contrarian on purpose Dangerous for society, and not for the individual pursuing that path.
- MartinCron 6y ago
  I distinctly remember my childhood when someone once told me that the U.S. civil war was “not about slavery” and how damn good it felt to think that everybody else had it wrong and that I was so smart for my contrarian views. It does feel good to be an elitist contrarian, but being reality-based is better.
  - mistermann 6y ago
    > I distinctly remember my childhood when someone once told me that the U.S. civil war was “not about slavery” and how damn good it felt to think that everybody else had it wrong and that I was so smart for my contrarian views. It does feel good to be an elitist contrarian, but being reality-based is better. Be careful you don't get too attached to the good feelings that come along with accepting "reality based" status quo ideas without challenge. For example, I've long held the opinion that most important aspect of Global Climate Change is not climate science, but psychology. From TFA: > P.P.S. At this point you might ask why are we picking on Freakonomics? Nobody cares about them anymore! Shouldn’t we be writing about Al Sharpton or Ted Cruz or whoever else happens to be polluting the public discourse? Or recent Ted talk sensations? Sleep is your superpower! Or we could see what’s been published lately in Perspectives on Psychological Science . . . that’s always always good for a laugh, or a cry. For fun, let's do a quick search on "climate" in the archives of the hilarious 'Perspectives on Psychological Science': https://journals.sagepub.com/action/doSearch?filterOption=thisJournal&SeriesKey=ppsa&AllField=climate https://journals.sagepub.com/action/doSearch?filterOption=th... Right off the bat, I see at least five articles that seem plausibly interesting and important. I'm not sure what keywords one would have to search on, but I reckon the field of psychology might have a few nuggets of useful knowledge about the exciting events of January 6 that everyone seems to have their panties in a bunch about. Continuing on in TFA... > Or maybe the pizzagate guy or the disgraced primatologist are up to no good again? Well, we do pick on all those people too. The tens if not hundreds of thousands of comically deranged (down to the individual person, without exception) members of the conspiracy theory community surely don't have any useful knowledge at all that might have any pragmatic use to remedying the ever taller pile of debacles our Serious Intellectuals are stacking up, one on top of the other. We know this for sure - because....well, why is it again that we all know this, for sure? I know it's a fact, because I read it all the time, but now that I think about it, I can't recall the reason. Oh wait....it's because all conspiracy theorists believe that 5G causes covid, and all of their theories are of that quality. And I know this to be true, because numerous Trustworthy Professional Journalists share this same opinion, and this has been Confirmed by Concensus on places like HN and the front page of Reddit, and I also know that the theories of people like Noam Chomsky and Marshall McLuhan on the questionable trustworthiness of the media (and in turn, mass public perception) have been proven Completely Wrong. Nothing to see here - case closed. Speaking of "good for a laugh", we're only two weeks into 2021, but I'm getting a feeling that this year might even be more funny than 2020. Time will tell I suppose. What I know we can count on though, is a never ending stream of sarcastic, sneering at our mutual outgroups articles from iamverysmart Right Thinking journalists and bloggers, and the Overton Window constrained circle jerk forum conversations that follow them (nothing noteworthy has ever been accomplished by anyone who had an idea outside of mainstream beliefs, no siree bob). Rinse repeat, forever. Fiddle While Rome Burns - it's a blast! EDIT: Speaking of other "edgy contrarian views", I think one could have quite the "meme field day" with the coordinated full court press of "independent" journalists whipping up a state of public loathing for the "disgraceful attack on Democracy, our "most sacred institution", if one was to combine it with some of the Greatest Hits from this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_r... I was having dinner with a good friend from Iran last night, he was telling me how there is a fair chunk of the population there who wants the US to invade and overthrow the current government, even if it results in severe destruction to the country. Is this a crazy idea? I don't even know what that word means anymore. But all of this is little concern to me. No, feeling like a snack after writing this edgy contrarian rant (and nothing else), I'll just wander down to the local corner store (a light hoodie should be more than enough, it's so warm out this winter) and pickup 3kg of bananas for $1.99 (they're high in Potassium, delicious, and so affordable - how do they do it!!!??) And after that, I'll settle into my cozy bed and sleep like a lamb, knowing when I wake up tomorrow everything will be Just Fine for me and my family. And isn't that all that matters? I imagine it is, because if it wasn't I'm sure I'd have heard something about it from the man on the Six O'clock News. I don't know about you, but that's where I get my facts from, because they tell us the facts that matter, not like those other guys - and I know this to be true, because they told me this is true, and people on social media overwhelmingly confirmed it to be true.
- p1necone 6y ago
  There's so much of this on HN on any even remotely politically charged topic. 99% of the conversation on anything technical is logically consistent, good faith discussion, but mention anything that the right wing political zeitgeist has decided to diverge from reality on recently and suddenly I'm surprised anyone manages to string together complete sentences.
  - coldtea 6y ago
    In other words: "It's contrarianism when those I don't agree with do it".
- coldtea 6y ago
  >Being contrary to popular opinion is an awful heuristic for correctness Seldom in politics and culture.
- SkyMarshal 6y ago
  Yes, there's also a subtle shift in incentive from being contrarian organically to being contrarian strategically. Incentives matter, and can introduce bias and distort one's perception of reality. People who base their identity and id around the notion of being contrarian are setting themselves up for being incorrect, a crank, or worse.
- tehjoker 6y ago
  I'd say that you're right but also that there are major systematic problems with the media and therefore with what everyone thinks, so the only way you'll get to the truth in many cases is by trying contrarian takes so you break out of the groupthink on important issues. As more than one person has remarked to me, it sometimes feels like listening to the news in America is like listening to a North Korean state broadcast.
- jlos 6y ago
  For me the contrarian impulse is that if Im arriving at the same conclusion as a large number of people, did I actually reason my way to that conclusion or am I letting unconscious social forces guide me? So, I play the devil's advocate. Then, after having challenged the conventional notions, I have more confidence in my conclusion. At the very least, I will usually have a more nuanced view. Ironically, being contrarian can itself be an unconscious social force to differentiate yourself; sometimes the herd is right.
- aaron695 6y ago
  UBI and Unschooling are contrarian. I think both don't work, which is perhaps your point, but you have to include contrarian things you like in this theory.
- tpoacher 6y ago
  True, but only for some definitions of 'contrarian'. The reverse warning would be equally useful, i.e. "dare to challenge the status quo if there's evidence for something better".
awb 6y ago
This is a follow up to the 2009 post here: https://web.archive.org/web/20170524023553/http://freakonomics.com/2009/10/15/a-headline-that-will-make-global-warming-activists-apoplectic/ https://web.archive.org/web/20170524023553/http://freakonomi... which cites a BBC article stating: > For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures. > Professor Easterbrook says: “The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling.” Needless to say, the 2009-2039 "cooling cycle" isn't off to a great start.
- JoeAltmaier 6y ago
  You can an article saying anything. But the global ice meltoff is not imaginary. I like to say, on a summer day you defrost your freezer. The kitchen, of course, gets cooler for a while. But once the ice is gone, its a hot summer day everywhere.
  - bioinformatics 6y ago
    So profound and poetic.
  - SV_BubbleTime 6y ago
    > But once the ice is gone, its a hot summer day everywhere. Well that’s an extra depressing way to put it to me for some reason.
    - titzer 6y ago
      This is why a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) would really signal the start of a whole new climate regime. Not only because of the albedo change, but the energy that goes into melting ice is enormous; that heat energy would instead be transferred to the ocean water itself.
peteretep 6y ago
I'm repeating myself here, but I look forward to when climate-change deniers are treated the same way as holocaust deniers (were, pre-Trump).
zetazzed 6y ago
Drive-by-contrarianism is just another form of nihilistic discourse. Low-brow practitioners (aka trolls) say outlandish, puerile things to get a reaction, then come back with "whatever, I'm just for the lulz" when challenged. Drive-by contrarians say outlandish, vaguely smart-sounding things, then come back with, "Oh, we're just raising questions and pushing back against groupthink." Or they just ignore the pushback, of course, as in the Freakonomics case.
- casefields 6y ago
  Kyrie Irving for a real world example.
Imnimo 6y ago
I remember seeing a LOT of annual temperature graphs that started at 1998. It was particularly popular with data ending in 2008, because then it seemed like a natural choice to use a nice round 10 year window.
refurb 6y ago
I’m so confused. About 8 years ago there seemed to be consensus that global warming had “paused”. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/climate-science/climate-observations-projections-and-impacts/paper2_recent_pause_in_global_warming.pdf https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metoffi... Now, it looks like it hasn’t? So basically what we though the average temperature each year was wrong and this new data is right?
- autocorr 6y ago
  As noted in the post: 1998 was super hot and it was around there from about ~2000-2010. Data from 2010-2020 shows it was just part of a noisy--but still upward--trend.
  - refurb 6y ago
    But look at the trend in the link for this article. There is no pause, just a consistent upward climb.
    - dodobirdlord 6y ago
      There's no clear upward trend if you zoom the focus to just the period from about 2002-2012, the trend is drowned out by noise in that window. 8 years ago that would have been the previous decade, which is likely the source of the "pause" discourse you remember from 8 years ago.
      - refurb 6y ago
        Hmm... but if I zoom into 1980 to say 1995 I see a similar noisy set of data points and no obvious upward trend. But no one ever said there was a pause then. Or did they?
- eloff 6y ago
  No, the global average temperatures over the last 8 years don't show a pause. There was never a consensus that there was one. You've just been listing to the wrong sources it seems, sorry to say.
imtringued 6y ago
Bet money against a global increase in temperature and you are going to lose your money in most years. Is there a prediction market for this?
lovecg 6y ago
Seeing the graph’s relentless climb upward year after year leaves one feeling increasingly hopeless. Every decade or so one of those “see, the trend stopped!” discussions come up, and every time it’s just temporary noise. We’ll have to figure out CO2 removal at scale pretty much. Anyone knows how that’s going to give me some hope?

91 points by luu 6y ago

> Cute contrarian takes and “repugnant ideas” can be Freakonomically fun, but they don’t always have much to do with reality. This has been on my mind a lot. Everyone wants to be the contrarian who ends up being right and hailed as a genius. It’s the intellectual equivalent of nailing the game winning 3 pointer. But it is very dangerous to pursue being a contrarian on purpose. Being contrary to popular opinion is an awful heuristic for correctness, and quite often it leads towards you just being a crank and not being correct.

spamizbad 6y ago
You're absolutely right. Contrarianism has taken off as a brand-building and clout-chasing tactics for writers and other public figures. They've figured out there's little downside to being wrong about some in the public discourse. You only need to get lucky once and you've struck gold. It works even better today because algorithms will jolt you to the top because you're controversial. It's gotten to the point where contrarian YouTbers will even have dumb little turf wars. If you are simply seeking the truth, why should you care that someone else agrees with you... oh they're stealing eyeballs? Ah, I see!
- yjftsjthsd-h 6y ago
  > If you are simply seeking the truth, why should you care that someone else agrees with you... oh they're stealing eyeballs? Ah, I see! I can imagine objecting to the most eyeballs going to the wrong conclusion.
  - simplemen 6y ago
    I think parent meant they both have same "truth" but pissed that they cannot have all the eyeballs.
    - quickthrower2 6y ago
      We’re talking about flat earth people I’m guessing. They have various pissing contests.
peteretep 6y ago
> But it is very dangerous to pursue being a contrarian on purpose Dangerous for society, and not for the individual pursuing that path.
MartinCron 6y ago
I distinctly remember my childhood when someone once told me that the U.S. civil war was “not about slavery” and how damn good it felt to think that everybody else had it wrong and that I was so smart for my contrarian views. It does feel good to be an elitist contrarian, but being reality-based is better.
- mistermann 6y ago
  > I distinctly remember my childhood when someone once told me that the U.S. civil war was “not about slavery” and how damn good it felt to think that everybody else had it wrong and that I was so smart for my contrarian views. It does feel good to be an elitist contrarian, but being reality-based is better. Be careful you don't get too attached to the good feelings that come along with accepting "reality based" status quo ideas without challenge. For example, I've long held the opinion that most important aspect of Global Climate Change is not climate science, but psychology. From TFA: > P.P.S. At this point you might ask why are we picking on Freakonomics? Nobody cares about them anymore! Shouldn’t we be writing about Al Sharpton or Ted Cruz or whoever else happens to be polluting the public discourse? Or recent Ted talk sensations? Sleep is your superpower! Or we could see what’s been published lately in Perspectives on Psychological Science . . . that’s always always good for a laugh, or a cry. For fun, let's do a quick search on "climate" in the archives of the hilarious 'Perspectives on Psychological Science': https://journals.sagepub.com/action/doSearch?filterOption=thisJournal&SeriesKey=ppsa&AllField=climate https://journals.sagepub.com/action/doSearch?filterOption=th... Right off the bat, I see at least five articles that seem plausibly interesting and important. I'm not sure what keywords one would have to search on, but I reckon the field of psychology might have a few nuggets of useful knowledge about the exciting events of January 6 that everyone seems to have their panties in a bunch about. Continuing on in TFA... > Or maybe the pizzagate guy or the disgraced primatologist are up to no good again? Well, we do pick on all those people too. The tens if not hundreds of thousands of comically deranged (down to the individual person, without exception) members of the conspiracy theory community surely don't have any useful knowledge at all that might have any pragmatic use to remedying the ever taller pile of debacles our Serious Intellectuals are stacking up, one on top of the other. We know this for sure - because....well, why is it again that we all know this, for sure? I know it's a fact, because I read it all the time, but now that I think about it, I can't recall the reason. Oh wait....it's because all conspiracy theorists believe that 5G causes covid, and all of their theories are of that quality. And I know this to be true, because numerous Trustworthy Professional Journalists share this same opinion, and this has been Confirmed by Concensus on places like HN and the front page of Reddit, and I also know that the theories of people like Noam Chomsky and Marshall McLuhan on the questionable trustworthiness of the media (and in turn, mass public perception) have been proven Completely Wrong. Nothing to see here - case closed. Speaking of "good for a laugh", we're only two weeks into 2021, but I'm getting a feeling that this year might even be more funny than 2020. Time will tell I suppose. What I know we can count on though, is a never ending stream of sarcastic, sneering at our mutual outgroups articles from iamverysmart Right Thinking journalists and bloggers, and the Overton Window constrained circle jerk forum conversations that follow them (nothing noteworthy has ever been accomplished by anyone who had an idea outside of mainstream beliefs, no siree bob). Rinse repeat, forever. Fiddle While Rome Burns - it's a blast! EDIT: Speaking of other "edgy contrarian views", I think one could have quite the "meme field day" with the coordinated full court press of "independent" journalists whipping up a state of public loathing for the "disgraceful attack on Democracy, our "most sacred institution", if one was to combine it with some of the Greatest Hits from this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_r... I was having dinner with a good friend from Iran last night, he was telling me how there is a fair chunk of the population there who wants the US to invade and overthrow the current government, even if it results in severe destruction to the country. Is this a crazy idea? I don't even know what that word means anymore. But all of this is little concern to me. No, feeling like a snack after writing this edgy contrarian rant (and nothing else), I'll just wander down to the local corner store (a light hoodie should be more than enough, it's so warm out this winter) and pickup 3kg of bananas for $1.99 (they're high in Potassium, delicious, and so affordable - how do they do it!!!??) And after that, I'll settle into my cozy bed and sleep like a lamb, knowing when I wake up tomorrow everything will be Just Fine for me and my family. And isn't that all that matters? I imagine it is, because if it wasn't I'm sure I'd have heard something about it from the man on the Six O'clock News. I don't know about you, but that's where I get my facts from, because they tell us the facts that matter, not like those other guys - and I know this to be true, because they told me this is true, and people on social media overwhelmingly confirmed it to be true.
p1necone 6y ago
There's so much of this on HN on any even remotely politically charged topic. 99% of the conversation on anything technical is logically consistent, good faith discussion, but mention anything that the right wing political zeitgeist has decided to diverge from reality on recently and suddenly I'm surprised anyone manages to string together complete sentences.
- coldtea 6y ago
  In other words: "It's contrarianism when those I don't agree with do it".
coldtea 6y ago
>Being contrary to popular opinion is an awful heuristic for correctness Seldom in politics and culture.
SkyMarshal 6y ago
Yes, there's also a subtle shift in incentive from being contrarian organically to being contrarian strategically. Incentives matter, and can introduce bias and distort one's perception of reality. People who base their identity and id around the notion of being contrarian are setting themselves up for being incorrect, a crank, or worse.
tehjoker 6y ago
I'd say that you're right but also that there are major systematic problems with the media and therefore with what everyone thinks, so the only way you'll get to the truth in many cases is by trying contrarian takes so you break out of the groupthink on important issues. As more than one person has remarked to me, it sometimes feels like listening to the news in America is like listening to a North Korean state broadcast.
jlos 6y ago
For me the contrarian impulse is that if Im arriving at the same conclusion as a large number of people, did I actually reason my way to that conclusion or am I letting unconscious social forces guide me? So, I play the devil's advocate. Then, after having challenged the conventional notions, I have more confidence in my conclusion. At the very least, I will usually have a more nuanced view. Ironically, being contrarian can itself be an unconscious social force to differentiate yourself; sometimes the herd is right.
aaron695 6y ago
UBI and Unschooling are contrarian. I think both don't work, which is perhaps your point, but you have to include contrarian things you like in this theory.
tpoacher 6y ago
True, but only for some definitions of 'contrarian'. The reverse warning would be equally useful, i.e. "dare to challenge the status quo if there's evidence for something better".

awb 6y ago

This is a follow up to the 2009 post here: https://web.archive.org/web/20170524023553/http://freakonomics.com/2009/10/15/a-headline-that-will-make-global-warming-activists-apoplectic/ https://web.archive.org/web/20170524023553/http://freakonomi... which cites a BBC article stating: > For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures. > Professor Easterbrook says: “The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling.” Needless to say, the 2009-2039 "cooling cycle" isn't off to a great start.

JoeAltmaier 6y ago
You can an article saying anything. But the global ice meltoff is not imaginary. I like to say, on a summer day you defrost your freezer. The kitchen, of course, gets cooler for a while. But once the ice is gone, its a hot summer day everywhere.
- bioinformatics 6y ago
  So profound and poetic.
- SV_BubbleTime 6y ago
  > But once the ice is gone, its a hot summer day everywhere. Well that’s an extra depressing way to put it to me for some reason.
  - titzer 6y ago
    This is why a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) would really signal the start of a whole new climate regime. Not only because of the albedo change, but the energy that goes into melting ice is enormous; that heat energy would instead be transferred to the ocean water itself.

peteretep 6y ago

I'm repeating myself here, but I look forward to when climate-change deniers are treated the same way as holocaust deniers (were, pre-Trump).

zetazzed 6y ago

Drive-by-contrarianism is just another form of nihilistic discourse. Low-brow practitioners (aka trolls) say outlandish, puerile things to get a reaction, then come back with "whatever, I'm just for the lulz" when challenged. Drive-by contrarians say outlandish, vaguely smart-sounding things, then come back with, "Oh, we're just raising questions and pushing back against groupthink." Or they just ignore the pushback, of course, as in the Freakonomics case.

casefields 6y ago
Kyrie Irving for a real world example.

Imnimo 6y ago

I remember seeing a LOT of annual temperature graphs that started at 1998. It was particularly popular with data ending in 2008, because then it seemed like a natural choice to use a nice round 10 year window.

refurb 6y ago

I’m so confused. About 8 years ago there seemed to be consensus that global warming had “paused”. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/climate-science/climate-observations-projections-and-impacts/paper2_recent_pause_in_global_warming.pdf https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metoffi... Now, it looks like it hasn’t? So basically what we though the average temperature each year was wrong and this new data is right?

autocorr 6y ago
As noted in the post: 1998 was super hot and it was around there from about ~2000-2010. Data from 2010-2020 shows it was just part of a noisy--but still upward--trend.
- refurb 6y ago
  But look at the trend in the link for this article. There is no pause, just a consistent upward climb.
  - dodobirdlord 6y ago
    There's no clear upward trend if you zoom the focus to just the period from about 2002-2012, the trend is drowned out by noise in that window. 8 years ago that would have been the previous decade, which is likely the source of the "pause" discourse you remember from 8 years ago.
    - refurb 6y ago
      Hmm... but if I zoom into 1980 to say 1995 I see a similar noisy set of data points and no obvious upward trend. But no one ever said there was a pause then. Or did they?
eloff 6y ago
No, the global average temperatures over the last 8 years don't show a pause. There was never a consensus that there was one. You've just been listing to the wrong sources it seems, sorry to say.

imtringued 6y ago

Bet money against a global increase in temperature and you are going to lose your money in most years. Is there a prediction market for this?

lovecg 6y ago

Seeing the graph’s relentless climb upward year after year leaves one feeling increasingly hopeless. Every decade or so one of those “see, the trend stopped!” discussions come up, and every time it’s just temporary noise. We’ll have to figure out CO2 removal at scale pretty much. Anyone knows how that’s going to give me some hope?