4 ms·

> level of paranoia that is unique to this particular virus This particular virus is >5x deadlier than seasonal flu, is significantly more contagious, and nobo

> level of paranoia that is unique to this particular virus This particular virus is >5x deadlier than seasonal flu, is significantly more contagious, and nobody has any pre-existing immunity. Despite strong countermeasures, almost half a million people in the USA have died from the pandemic so far, and by the time we are through that number could potentially double. It is the worst infectious disease threat since the 1918 flu (thankfully not quite as deadly as that one, given modern medical care).

timr 6y ago
> It is the worst infectious disease threat since the 1918 flu. Well, no, actually. This virus is roughly on par with the 1957 pandemic in terms of IFR and per-capita fatality rate: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemi... Regardless, as I said before, demanding that some kind of study be provided to prove that asymptomatic infection is prevented by natural immunity is so far beyond what we know about any other virus that it borders on the hysterical.
- jacobolus 6y ago
  This virus is significantly worse than the 1957 or 1968 flu, causing many more hospitalizations and deaths despite much stronger countermeasures. But those two were indeed quite deadly, worse than seasonal flu, and if a similar flu emerges in the future it should be treated extremely seriously. Hopefully we can learn from our severe systematic mistakes in the Covid pandemic to better prepare for and react to future pandemics of flu and other pathogens.
  - logicchains 6y ago
    >This virus is significantly worse than the 1957 or 1968 flu Evidence please? The person you're replying to actually posted a CDC link.
    - jacobolus 6y ago
      The "CDC link" consists of a single paragraph. The 1957 flu had less than half the IFR of Covid. It infected a smaller percentage of the world population than Covid is likely to, despite much less significant public health countermeasures, and a tremendous increase in medical knowledge in the past half century. It was likely significantly less contagious. Death estimates in the USA are in the 100k range, vs. Covid which has already killed more than 400k (if we count using a similar estimation method) and will likely kill at least 200k more before it is through. (US population has more than doubled in the mean time, but we are talking about at least 5–8x as many deaths.) The difference in hospitalization rate is dramatic. If you want a summary or some numbers about the current pandemic, try https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic It is really tragic that the abject failures of the US federal response have made partisans so heavily invest themselves in the claim that Covid is no big deal and we shouldn't worry about it.
      - xkbarkar 6y ago
        covid-19 is not 5 times deadlier than the flu. It is about twice. The IFR sits at ca 0.19. Flu is about 0.1. Covid scare-mongers using inaccurate and outright false data to cause panic, terror and so much confusion that the public is left to choose what to ignore and what to follow, are causing much more damage than covid deniers are. The fear of going to the hospital among people with other ailments come to mind. There was an article in Nature the other day on the 300% increase in stillbirths in UK due to lack of in-person pre natal care. Another delightful side effects of the extreme fear propaganda. No one listened to the idiot deniers anyway. They never were the problem. Source: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13423 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13423.
        jacobolus 6y ago
        0.19% is much lower than even the low bound of consensus scientific estimates; the Ionnidis paper on which he bases these estimates has also received significant direct criticism. In my opinion Ioannidis is a disingenuous hack who has thoroughly discredited himself during this pandemic, and from what I can tell his agenda-driven Covid punditry is popular on Fox News and Breitbart but not taken seriously by professional epidemiologists. The US CDC's best estimate of IFR as of a planning scenaario document from September was 0.5% for people aged 50–70, and 5.4% for people aged 70+. (This is not the best source available, but miscellaneous journal papers could be criticized as cherry-picked.) Adjusted population IFR varies from place to place, depending on the proportion of seniors, people with pre-existing health problems, access to medical care, etc., but nowhere in the US is it as low as 0.19%. If you want a credible widely cited meta-analysis, try e.g. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 from December which calls Covid "far more dangerous than influenza", and estimates the IFR to be at least 5–10x higher. > The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85. > As shown in Fig. 6, population IFR (computed across all ages) ranges from about 0.5% in Salt Lake City and Geneva to 1.5% in Australia and England and 2.7% in Italy. > Supplementary Appendix O: [We estimate that during winter 2018–19] the population IFR for seasonal influenza was in the range of 0.04% to 0.08% – an order of magnitude smaller than the population IFR for COVID-19. * * * > increase in stillbirths in UK The UK has royally screwed up most aspects of pandemic response. Just like Brexit and everything else the Tories have had their hands on in the past few years. You don't see the same problems in other wealthy island nations like New Zealand or Taiwan. (With the notable exception that the UK has done a decent job sequencing a large collection of viral samples.)

timr 6y ago

> It is the worst infectious disease threat since the 1918 flu. Well, no, actually. This virus is roughly on par with the 1957 pandemic in terms of IFR and per-capita fatality rate: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemi... Regardless, as I said before, demanding that some kind of study be provided to prove that asymptomatic infection is prevented by natural immunity is so far beyond what we know about any other virus that it borders on the hysterical.

jacobolus 6y ago
This virus is significantly worse than the 1957 or 1968 flu, causing many more hospitalizations and deaths despite much stronger countermeasures. But those two were indeed quite deadly, worse than seasonal flu, and if a similar flu emerges in the future it should be treated extremely seriously. Hopefully we can learn from our severe systematic mistakes in the Covid pandemic to better prepare for and react to future pandemics of flu and other pathogens.
- logicchains 6y ago
  >This virus is significantly worse than the 1957 or 1968 flu Evidence please? The person you're replying to actually posted a CDC link.
  - jacobolus 6y ago
    The "CDC link" consists of a single paragraph. The 1957 flu had less than half the IFR of Covid. It infected a smaller percentage of the world population than Covid is likely to, despite much less significant public health countermeasures, and a tremendous increase in medical knowledge in the past half century. It was likely significantly less contagious. Death estimates in the USA are in the 100k range, vs. Covid which has already killed more than 400k (if we count using a similar estimation method) and will likely kill at least 200k more before it is through. (US population has more than doubled in the mean time, but we are talking about at least 5–8x as many deaths.) The difference in hospitalization rate is dramatic. If you want a summary or some numbers about the current pandemic, try https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic It is really tragic that the abject failures of the US federal response have made partisans so heavily invest themselves in the claim that Covid is no big deal and we shouldn't worry about it.
    - xkbarkar 6y ago
      covid-19 is not 5 times deadlier than the flu. It is about twice. The IFR sits at ca 0.19. Flu is about 0.1. Covid scare-mongers using inaccurate and outright false data to cause panic, terror and so much confusion that the public is left to choose what to ignore and what to follow, are causing much more damage than covid deniers are. The fear of going to the hospital among people with other ailments come to mind. There was an article in Nature the other day on the 300% increase in stillbirths in UK due to lack of in-person pre natal care. Another delightful side effects of the extreme fear propaganda. No one listened to the idiot deniers anyway. They never were the problem. Source: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13423 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13423.
      - jacobolus 6y ago
        0.19% is much lower than even the low bound of consensus scientific estimates; the Ionnidis paper on which he bases these estimates has also received significant direct criticism. In my opinion Ioannidis is a disingenuous hack who has thoroughly discredited himself during this pandemic, and from what I can tell his agenda-driven Covid punditry is popular on Fox News and Breitbart but not taken seriously by professional epidemiologists. The US CDC's best estimate of IFR as of a planning scenaario document from September was 0.5% for people aged 50–70, and 5.4% for people aged 70+. (This is not the best source available, but miscellaneous journal papers could be criticized as cherry-picked.) Adjusted population IFR varies from place to place, depending on the proportion of seniors, people with pre-existing health problems, access to medical care, etc., but nowhere in the US is it as low as 0.19%. If you want a credible widely cited meta-analysis, try e.g. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 from December which calls Covid "far more dangerous than influenza", and estimates the IFR to be at least 5–10x higher. > The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85. > As shown in Fig. 6, population IFR (computed across all ages) ranges from about 0.5% in Salt Lake City and Geneva to 1.5% in Australia and England and 2.7% in Italy. > Supplementary Appendix O: [We estimate that during winter 2018–19] the population IFR for seasonal influenza was in the range of 0.04% to 0.08% – an order of magnitude smaller than the population IFR for COVID-19. * * * > increase in stillbirths in UK The UK has royally screwed up most aspects of pandemic response. Just like Brexit and everything else the Tories have had their hands on in the past few years. You don't see the same problems in other wealthy island nations like New Zealand or Taiwan. (With the notable exception that the UK has done a decent job sequencing a large collection of viral samples.)