3 ms·

> It's still not clear if a previous infection stops you from being an asymptomatic carrier, and we don't want more asymptomatic carriers. It's as clear as it

by timr 6y ago

> It's still not clear if a previous infection stops you from being an asymptomatic carrier, and we don't want more asymptomatic carriers. It's as clear as it is for any other viral disease. For example, to my knowledge, nobody has ever done any kind of systematic study of whether or not infection with influenza protects you against asymptomatic reinfection with the same strain. This is a level of paranoia that is unique to this particular virus.

jacobolus 6y ago
> level of paranoia that is unique to this particular virus This particular virus is >5x deadlier than seasonal flu, is significantly more contagious, and nobody has any pre-existing immunity. Despite strong countermeasures, almost half a million people in the USA have died from the pandemic so far, and by the time we are through that number could potentially double. It is the worst infectious disease threat since the 1918 flu (thankfully not quite as deadly as that one, given modern medical care).
- timr 6y ago
  > It is the worst infectious disease threat since the 1918 flu. Well, no, actually. This virus is roughly on par with the 1957 pandemic in terms of IFR and per-capita fatality rate: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemi... Regardless, as I said before, demanding that some kind of study be provided to prove that asymptomatic infection is prevented by natural immunity is so far beyond what we know about any other virus that it borders on the hysterical.
  - jacobolus 6y ago
    This virus is significantly worse than the 1957 or 1968 flu, causing many more hospitalizations and deaths despite much stronger countermeasures. But those two were indeed quite deadly, worse than seasonal flu, and if a similar flu emerges in the future it should be treated extremely seriously. Hopefully we can learn from our severe systematic mistakes in the Covid pandemic to better prepare for and react to future pandemics of flu and other pathogens.
    - logicchains 6y ago
      >This virus is significantly worse than the 1957 or 1968 flu Evidence please? The person you're replying to actually posted a CDC link.
      - jacobolus 6y ago
        The "CDC link" consists of a single paragraph. The 1957 flu had less than half the IFR of Covid. It infected a smaller percentage of the world population than Covid is likely to, despite much less significant public health countermeasures, and a tremendous increase in medical knowledge in the past half century. It was likely significantly less contagious. Death estimates in the USA are in the 100k range, vs. Covid which has already killed more than 400k (if we count using a similar estimation method) and will likely kill at least 200k more before it is through. (US population has more than doubled in the mean time, but we are talking about at least 5–8x as many deaths.) The difference in hospitalization rate is dramatic. If you want a summary or some numbers about the current pandemic, try https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic It is really tragic that the abject failures of the US federal response have made partisans so heavily invest themselves in the claim that Covid is no big deal and we shouldn't worry about it.
        xkbarkar 6y ago
        covid-19 is not 5 times deadlier than the flu. It is about twice. The IFR sits at ca 0.19. Flu is about 0.1. Covid scare-mongers using inaccurate and outright false data to cause panic, terror and so much confusion that the public is left to choose what to ignore and what to follow, are causing much more damage than covid deniers are. The fear of going to the hospital among people with other ailments come to mind. There was an article in Nature the other day on the 300% increase in stillbirths in UK due to lack of in-person pre natal care. Another delightful side effects of the extreme fear propaganda. No one listened to the idiot deniers anyway. They never were the problem. Source: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13423 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13423.

by timr 6y ago

jacobolus 6y ago

> level of paranoia that is unique to this particular virus This particular virus is >5x deadlier than seasonal flu, is significantly more contagious, and nobody has any pre-existing immunity. Despite strong countermeasures, almost half a million people in the USA have died from the pandemic so far, and by the time we are through that number could potentially double. It is the worst infectious disease threat since the 1918 flu (thankfully not quite as deadly as that one, given modern medical care).

timr 6y ago
> It is the worst infectious disease threat since the 1918 flu. Well, no, actually. This virus is roughly on par with the 1957 pandemic in terms of IFR and per-capita fatality rate: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemi... Regardless, as I said before, demanding that some kind of study be provided to prove that asymptomatic infection is prevented by natural immunity is so far beyond what we know about any other virus that it borders on the hysterical.
- jacobolus 6y ago
  This virus is significantly worse than the 1957 or 1968 flu, causing many more hospitalizations and deaths despite much stronger countermeasures. But those two were indeed quite deadly, worse than seasonal flu, and if a similar flu emerges in the future it should be treated extremely seriously. Hopefully we can learn from our severe systematic mistakes in the Covid pandemic to better prepare for and react to future pandemics of flu and other pathogens.
  - logicchains 6y ago
    >This virus is significantly worse than the 1957 or 1968 flu Evidence please? The person you're replying to actually posted a CDC link.
    - jacobolus 6y ago
      The "CDC link" consists of a single paragraph. The 1957 flu had less than half the IFR of Covid. It infected a smaller percentage of the world population than Covid is likely to, despite much less significant public health countermeasures, and a tremendous increase in medical knowledge in the past half century. It was likely significantly less contagious. Death estimates in the USA are in the 100k range, vs. Covid which has already killed more than 400k (if we count using a similar estimation method) and will likely kill at least 200k more before it is through. (US population has more than doubled in the mean time, but we are talking about at least 5–8x as many deaths.) The difference in hospitalization rate is dramatic. If you want a summary or some numbers about the current pandemic, try https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic It is really tragic that the abject failures of the US federal response have made partisans so heavily invest themselves in the claim that Covid is no big deal and we shouldn't worry about it.
      - xkbarkar 6y ago
        covid-19 is not 5 times deadlier than the flu. It is about twice. The IFR sits at ca 0.19. Flu is about 0.1. Covid scare-mongers using inaccurate and outright false data to cause panic, terror and so much confusion that the public is left to choose what to ignore and what to follow, are causing much more damage than covid deniers are. The fear of going to the hospital among people with other ailments come to mind. There was an article in Nature the other day on the 300% increase in stillbirths in UK due to lack of in-person pre natal care. Another delightful side effects of the extreme fear propaganda. No one listened to the idiot deniers anyway. They never were the problem. Source: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13423 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13423.