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We might actually be on the verge of a civil war, but it won't look like the last one. It will look more like "the troubles" in Ireland.

by api 6y ago

SifJar 6y ago
"the troubles" were in Nothern Ireland, not Ireland
- secondcoming 6y ago
  Most of it was confined to Northern Ireland, but there were several bombings in GB, at least one in Dublin, and one in Germany. Several IRA members were killed while planning an operation in Gibraltar.
- 082349872349872 6y ago
  Wasn't the question of just how distinct "northern ireland" may or may not be from "ireland" a large component of "the troubles"?
Gollapalli 6y ago
The main divide doesn't seem to be between states, but between urban and rural. If you look at a the map by county, I think it gives a decent picture: https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/11/10/election-maps-2020-america-county-results-more-voters/6226197002/ https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/11/10/electi... This is one from 2016 and is red-blue binary. It is perhaps the most illustrative: https://blueshift.io/election-2016-county-map.html https://blueshift.io/election-2016-county-map.html This makes peaceful resolution very difficult, as we're dealing with two groups who largely live apart from one another, with different geography, culture, and social mores. I think it's important to emphasize, there are a lot of people who genuinely believe that systemic voting irregularities influenced our last election, to the point of having changed the outcome, and don't view Joe Biden as having been legitimately elected. Furthermore, they believe that the courts, especially the Supreme Court, refused to even hear their case, and that Congress would in no way give their grievances with the process an open debate, before accepting results they viewed as fraudulent. This puts them into a position of desperation. The videos of people being arrested at the airport do not help: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxwJ5HXSzuA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxwJ5HXSzuA Given the geography. I expect to see red-hats (Trump people) going into the cities where the blue-hats (centrists) and the black-hats (Antifa/BLM) live, and then retreating into the rural areas, where supportive sheriffs are more likely to run interference against other law-enforcement agencies. To some extent, this is what we already saw at the Capitol Building, as well in places like Kenosha where people like Kyle Rittenhouse came from out-of town (albeit within reasonable driving distance) to the city where violence was occurring. EDIT: better link EDIT 2: The phrase "I've thought a lot about this" suggests that one has thought more of themselves thinking about the issue, than about the issue itself. As such It has been removed.
- littlestymaar 6y ago
  > The main divide doesn't seem to be between states, but between urban and rural. […] This makes peaceful resolution very difficult, as we're dealing with two groups who largely live apart from one another, with different geography, culture, and social mores. Randall Munroe did a twitter thread[0] on the election map he did for xkcd 2399[1] and he actually discusses about the bias in common election maps: in fact there is no such geographic split. Or, as he puts it: > There are more Trump voters in California than Texas, more Biden voters in Texas than NY, more Trump voters in NY than Ohio, more Biden voters in Ohio than Massachusetts, more Trump voters in Massachusetts than Mississippi, and more Biden voters in Mississippi than Vermont. [0]: https://twitter.com/xkcd/status/1339341149488746498 https://twitter.com/xkcd/status/1339341149488746498 [1]: https://xkcd.com/2399/ https://xkcd.com/2399/
  - Gollapalli 6y ago
    I'm sorry, I really don't see how that map is particularly contradictory to my point. Swap "rural" for "exurban" or merely "less urban," if you wish, and take a look at the map you linked. Most of the time, The red dots surround the clusters of blue dots, and never vice versa. The clusters of blue dots are large cities, or "highly urban" areas, and the clusters of red dots surrounding them are outlying "less urban" areas.
    - littlestymaar 6y ago
      > Location within each state are approximate Don't take the map literally, the key ideas are in the Twitter thread. The main point of his thread, is that maps aren't good at saying where voters are and are fundamentally biased (“You can be a Biden voter in a Trump household in a Biden precinct in a Trump county in a Biden district in a Trump state in a Biden country. Then what color is your land? Dirt-colored, I guess! Not only does land not vote, it doesn’t even have a preference.”). He made his map as a counterpoint to nationwide maps, but he could have made the same map at the state, or even the district level: there are trumps voter in the middle of San Francisco and Bidden voters in the middle of nowhere in rural California. In fact, there are more Trump voters in LA alone than in 80% of the red areas in nationwide maps.

We might actually be on the verge of a civil war, but it won't look like the last one. It will look more like "the troubles" in Ireland.

by api 6y ago

We might actually be on the verge of a civil war, but it won't look like the last one. It will look more like "the troubles" in Ireland.

SifJar 6y ago

"the troubles" were in Nothern Ireland, not Ireland

secondcoming 6y ago
Most of it was confined to Northern Ireland, but there were several bombings in GB, at least one in Dublin, and one in Germany. Several IRA members were killed while planning an operation in Gibraltar.
082349872349872 6y ago
Wasn't the question of just how distinct "northern ireland" may or may not be from "ireland" a large component of "the troubles"?

Gollapalli 6y ago

The main divide doesn't seem to be between states, but between urban and rural. If you look at a the map by county, I think it gives a decent picture: https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/11/10/election-maps-2020-america-county-results-more-voters/6226197002/ https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/11/10/electi... This is one from 2016 and is red-blue binary. It is perhaps the most illustrative: https://blueshift.io/election-2016-county-map.html https://blueshift.io/election-2016-county-map.html This makes peaceful resolution very difficult, as we're dealing with two groups who largely live apart from one another, with different geography, culture, and social mores. I think it's important to emphasize, there are a lot of people who genuinely believe that systemic voting irregularities influenced our last election, to the point of having changed the outcome, and don't view Joe Biden as having been legitimately elected. Furthermore, they believe that the courts, especially the Supreme Court, refused to even hear their case, and that Congress would in no way give their grievances with the process an open debate, before accepting results they viewed as fraudulent. This puts them into a position of desperation. The videos of people being arrested at the airport do not help: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxwJ5HXSzuA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxwJ5HXSzuA Given the geography. I expect to see red-hats (Trump people) going into the cities where the blue-hats (centrists) and the black-hats (Antifa/BLM) live, and then retreating into the rural areas, where supportive sheriffs are more likely to run interference against other law-enforcement agencies. To some extent, this is what we already saw at the Capitol Building, as well in places like Kenosha where people like Kyle Rittenhouse came from out-of town (albeit within reasonable driving distance) to the city where violence was occurring. EDIT: better link EDIT 2: The phrase "I've thought a lot about this" suggests that one has thought more of themselves thinking about the issue, than about the issue itself. As such It has been removed.

littlestymaar 6y ago
> The main divide doesn't seem to be between states, but between urban and rural. […] This makes peaceful resolution very difficult, as we're dealing with two groups who largely live apart from one another, with different geography, culture, and social mores. Randall Munroe did a twitter thread[0] on the election map he did for xkcd 2399[1] and he actually discusses about the bias in common election maps: in fact there is no such geographic split. Or, as he puts it: > There are more Trump voters in California than Texas, more Biden voters in Texas than NY, more Trump voters in NY than Ohio, more Biden voters in Ohio than Massachusetts, more Trump voters in Massachusetts than Mississippi, and more Biden voters in Mississippi than Vermont. [0]: https://twitter.com/xkcd/status/1339341149488746498 https://twitter.com/xkcd/status/1339341149488746498 [1]: https://xkcd.com/2399/ https://xkcd.com/2399/
- Gollapalli 6y ago
  I'm sorry, I really don't see how that map is particularly contradictory to my point. Swap "rural" for "exurban" or merely "less urban," if you wish, and take a look at the map you linked. Most of the time, The red dots surround the clusters of blue dots, and never vice versa. The clusters of blue dots are large cities, or "highly urban" areas, and the clusters of red dots surrounding them are outlying "less urban" areas.
  - littlestymaar 6y ago
    > Location within each state are approximate Don't take the map literally, the key ideas are in the Twitter thread. The main point of his thread, is that maps aren't good at saying where voters are and are fundamentally biased (“You can be a Biden voter in a Trump household in a Biden precinct in a Trump county in a Biden district in a Trump state in a Biden country. Then what color is your land? Dirt-colored, I guess! Not only does land not vote, it doesn’t even have a preference.”). He made his map as a counterpoint to nationwide maps, but he could have made the same map at the state, or even the district level: there are trumps voter in the middle of San Francisco and Bidden voters in the middle of nowhere in rural California. In fact, there are more Trump voters in LA alone than in 80% of the red areas in nationwide maps.