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Article looks fishy. But if China goes down this route, it looks like fears of China economically overtaking the US are overblown.

by f00zz 6y ago

echelon 6y ago
Xi Jinping played his hand early. They needed a slow burn to achieve world domination, but he's much too eager.
f430 6y ago
> China economically overtaking the US are overblown. They never really stood a chance. Militarily, economically, socially, culturally and spiritually they offer no better alternative to the American one. Similar to how "China owns US treasuries and can crash the US dollar" was the common trope until recently, the US called them out the trillion dollar loan to Qing dynasty which was transferred from KMT to CCP after Chiang Kai Shek's defeat (and really a symbol of CCP's legitimacy over Taipei), and China began buying more US treasuries to increase its US dollar dependence. Without HK, the yuan-hkd-usd peg is collapsing and CCP is running low on US dollars. Kyle Bass's interview with Guo Wengui explains this in detail [1] I even had Chinese students condescendingly tell me that China is taking over and everybody will be speaking Chinese by 2020 back in 2005. If Winnie the Pooh, censoring wikipedia, university students protesting over Tibet, Tianmen Square massacre, organ harvesting of Falun Gong (they are "scientology" so its okay they said) causes the security apparatus kick into high gear then you really are the complete opposite of anti-fragility which is what the US is. US is anti-fragile, authoritarians are not because they are susceptible to even the smallest shock in the economy or the mindset of its citizens, so they use excessive violence and fear to maintain its power. They don't last at all. It's more likely that people who made a lot of money working with/in China have an extremely skewed view of the world. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBl05xNq_AU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBl05xNq_AU
- gedy 6y ago
  I used to think that way, but demographics seem to favor China growth for much more people for longer than US and Europe. Seems that will drive growth quite a bit.
  - f430 6y ago
    China has a rapidly aging demographic due to their one child policy and preference for male leading to a skewed gender ratio. All of this compared to its neighbors, US & Europe which simply uses immigration, leaves China in an unrecoverable state. The leadership knows this and all they can do is kick the can down the road. Unless they come up with robots or start opening up immigration (which will be a hard sell), you are going to have old single men competing for whatever economic avenues they can find. Single men living in dense urban zones in poverty is guarantee for unrest. ex) Syria PRC is Qing Dynasty 2.0 and it will be divided up by foreign powers when its weak. Sort of like how NATO & EU prevents Russia from retaking its former satellites permanently and this is exactly why Putin is in Crimea, Georgia, and now Latvia (massive open terrain allows fast ground, air invasion of Moscow and this has always been the central core of Russia both past and the present security policy). This time, it will not be allowed to unify. The West, China's neighbors who are after its loot, will simply allow all 55 minorities to declare independence, and massive civil war is a real possibility between competing regions. If you understand China, they are forced to follow Beijing. People from South are more westernized and business minded. The southern coastal provinces are best poised for economic recovery and could be the favored state. When the smoke clears, a unified Korea is in the best position to take over because of its soft power in the region. Nobody forced people to become America, people put it on themselves to become American. This is the power of culture and China simply played its hands too early and were caught stealing chips. Figuratively and literally
- leafmeal 6y ago
  Your claims about social, cultural and spiritual inferiority sound like outright zenophobia/racism.
sudosysgen 6y ago
There is not really much of a reason to believe this. Economically successful nationalization do happen. The main reason why the CCP is considering nationalizing Ant Financial is because their economists are afraid of the negative economic impacts it may have. The same thing happened in my province, where the power generation industry was nationalized for economic reasons and ended up being a massive economic advantage, along with the lowest unsubdsidized rates everywhere in the world. I think this kind of dogmatic viewpoint is dangerous.
- runlevel1 6y ago
  Are there success stories apart from utilities and companies involved in the exploitation natural resources?
  - sudosysgen 6y ago
    There have been success stories in the healthcare and financial sector too. That being said, the example I'm giving here is actually a lot more than just a utility company - there is also a profitable R&D arm that did a lot of work on LTO and LiFePO4 that found its way to market, as well as has a successful construction arm. It also did consulting work for the Three Gorges Dam in China notably but also a lot of other projects. There is also an electric bus project that is in current development with a partnership with Volvo and Novabus as well as a Chinese/Italian/American/Quebec electric motor manufacturing joint venture, that has shipped a few dozen buses locally and is being considered for international orders. So, I think that it can fairly be said that nationalized companies can be successful beyond simply utilities and natural resource exploitation.
  - pishpash 6y ago
    Banking, healthcare, education are considered public goods by some.
Crash0v3rid3 6y ago
Not sure I follow. How does this action demonstrate that China isn’t going to overtake the US economically?
- skissane 6y ago
  To really overtake the US economically, China needs to become better than the US at innovation – innovative technologies, innovative business models, etc Coming up with leading edge technologies or business models – as opposed to mere incremental improvements on stuff invented elsewhere – is not China's strong suit. China's problem is that authoritarian regimes in the long-run are worse at innovation than freer ones. At one point it was hoped that China might address this problem through gradual liberalisation, but recently under Xi China has been moving in the opposite direction.
seanmcdirmid 6y ago
Agreed. Without sources, this story could be totally made up. That being said, who really knows what the CPC is planning to do with Alibaba right now, if anything. > But if China goes down this route, it looks like fears of China economically overtaking the US are overblown. Agreed also. This would be the worst possible thing the government could do to China's tech economy.

Article looks fishy. But if China goes down this route, it looks like fears of China economically overtaking the US are overblown.

by f00zz 6y ago

Article looks fishy. But if China goes down this route, it looks like fears of China economically overtaking the US are overblown.

echelon 6y ago

Xi Jinping played his hand early. They needed a slow burn to achieve world domination, but he's much too eager.

f430 6y ago

> China economically overtaking the US are overblown. They never really stood a chance. Militarily, economically, socially, culturally and spiritually they offer no better alternative to the American one. Similar to how "China owns US treasuries and can crash the US dollar" was the common trope until recently, the US called them out the trillion dollar loan to Qing dynasty which was transferred from KMT to CCP after Chiang Kai Shek's defeat (and really a symbol of CCP's legitimacy over Taipei), and China began buying more US treasuries to increase its US dollar dependence. Without HK, the yuan-hkd-usd peg is collapsing and CCP is running low on US dollars. Kyle Bass's interview with Guo Wengui explains this in detail [1] I even had Chinese students condescendingly tell me that China is taking over and everybody will be speaking Chinese by 2020 back in 2005. If Winnie the Pooh, censoring wikipedia, university students protesting over Tibet, Tianmen Square massacre, organ harvesting of Falun Gong (they are "scientology" so its okay they said) causes the security apparatus kick into high gear then you really are the complete opposite of anti-fragility which is what the US is. US is anti-fragile, authoritarians are not because they are susceptible to even the smallest shock in the economy or the mindset of its citizens, so they use excessive violence and fear to maintain its power. They don't last at all. It's more likely that people who made a lot of money working with/in China have an extremely skewed view of the world. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBl05xNq_AU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBl05xNq_AU

gedy 6y ago
I used to think that way, but demographics seem to favor China growth for much more people for longer than US and Europe. Seems that will drive growth quite a bit.
- f430 6y ago
  China has a rapidly aging demographic due to their one child policy and preference for male leading to a skewed gender ratio. All of this compared to its neighbors, US & Europe which simply uses immigration, leaves China in an unrecoverable state. The leadership knows this and all they can do is kick the can down the road. Unless they come up with robots or start opening up immigration (which will be a hard sell), you are going to have old single men competing for whatever economic avenues they can find. Single men living in dense urban zones in poverty is guarantee for unrest. ex) Syria PRC is Qing Dynasty 2.0 and it will be divided up by foreign powers when its weak. Sort of like how NATO & EU prevents Russia from retaking its former satellites permanently and this is exactly why Putin is in Crimea, Georgia, and now Latvia (massive open terrain allows fast ground, air invasion of Moscow and this has always been the central core of Russia both past and the present security policy). This time, it will not be allowed to unify. The West, China's neighbors who are after its loot, will simply allow all 55 minorities to declare independence, and massive civil war is a real possibility between competing regions. If you understand China, they are forced to follow Beijing. People from South are more westernized and business minded. The southern coastal provinces are best poised for economic recovery and could be the favored state. When the smoke clears, a unified Korea is in the best position to take over because of its soft power in the region. Nobody forced people to become America, people put it on themselves to become American. This is the power of culture and China simply played its hands too early and were caught stealing chips. Figuratively and literally
leafmeal 6y ago
Your claims about social, cultural and spiritual inferiority sound like outright zenophobia/racism.

sudosysgen 6y ago

There is not really much of a reason to believe this. Economically successful nationalization do happen. The main reason why the CCP is considering nationalizing Ant Financial is because their economists are afraid of the negative economic impacts it may have. The same thing happened in my province, where the power generation industry was nationalized for economic reasons and ended up being a massive economic advantage, along with the lowest unsubdsidized rates everywhere in the world. I think this kind of dogmatic viewpoint is dangerous.

runlevel1 6y ago
Are there success stories apart from utilities and companies involved in the exploitation natural resources?
- sudosysgen 6y ago
  There have been success stories in the healthcare and financial sector too. That being said, the example I'm giving here is actually a lot more than just a utility company - there is also a profitable R&D arm that did a lot of work on LTO and LiFePO4 that found its way to market, as well as has a successful construction arm. It also did consulting work for the Three Gorges Dam in China notably but also a lot of other projects. There is also an electric bus project that is in current development with a partnership with Volvo and Novabus as well as a Chinese/Italian/American/Quebec electric motor manufacturing joint venture, that has shipped a few dozen buses locally and is being considered for international orders. So, I think that it can fairly be said that nationalized companies can be successful beyond simply utilities and natural resource exploitation.
- pishpash 6y ago
  Banking, healthcare, education are considered public goods by some.

Crash0v3rid3 6y ago

Not sure I follow. How does this action demonstrate that China isn’t going to overtake the US economically?

skissane 6y ago
To really overtake the US economically, China needs to become better than the US at innovation – innovative technologies, innovative business models, etc Coming up with leading edge technologies or business models – as opposed to mere incremental improvements on stuff invented elsewhere – is not China's strong suit. China's problem is that authoritarian regimes in the long-run are worse at innovation than freer ones. At one point it was hoped that China might address this problem through gradual liberalisation, but recently under Xi China has been moving in the opposite direction.

seanmcdirmid 6y ago

Agreed. Without sources, this story could be totally made up. That being said, who really knows what the CPC is planning to do with Alibaba right now, if anything. > But if China goes down this route, it looks like fears of China economically overtaking the US are overblown. Agreed also. This would be the worst possible thing the government could do to China's tech economy.