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We barely understand it, but yet we’re confident in the dozens of computer models of it that climatologists use that give varying results?
by beervirus 6y ago
We barely understand it, but yet we’re confident in the dozens of computer models of it that climatologists use that give varying results?
- 8note 6y agoSo far those models have been way too optimistic about things not being as bad, so my current priors would expect things to be worse than models say
- beervirus 6y agoThat’s a funny way of saying “I trust them because they were wrong.”
- pmiller2 6y agoExcept they don't give varying results. 10/14 models with published surface temperature predictions since the 1970s were statistically indistinguishable from reality: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/12/even-50-year-old-climate-models-correctly-predicted-global-warming https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/12/even-50-year-old-cli...
- imtringued 6y agoIt only takes a glance at CO2 levels. You don't even have to predict anything to know that things are going to end badly.
- beervirus 6y agoYou don't have to predict anything to predict what's going to happen?