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> so from a hedging perspective it makes sense for all high wealth individuals to have a small allocation. We're reaching the point where you're at a greater lo

> so from a hedging perspective it makes sense for all high wealth individuals to have a small allocation. We're reaching the point where you're at a greater long term risk not holding any. Couldn’t have expressed my thoughts any better. And to add to this, the more that one comes to understand the machinations of central banks (particularly the behavior of the US Fed), and the limited long-term viability of the dollar-centric monetary system, the more one sees it from this perspective. Another comment below notes how Bitcoin and US equities are correlated. I could see many reasons for this, but one of them is very likely that both are an effect of quantitative easing policies, but for very different reasons...

bb88 6y ago
> And to add to this, the more that one comes to understand the machinations of central banks (particularly the behavior of the US Fed).... I have a pretty good idea of the way the Fed works and I have no interest in holding bitcoin. The Fed seems to be doing a really good job targeting the inflation rate even in times of financial crisis in the past couple of decades. Bitcoin prices are too unstable to be anything more than a crypto lottery. > and the limited long-term viability of the dollar-centric monetary system, the more one sees it from this perspective. If anything the dollar has become stronger since we got off the gold standard and has become the unofficial currency of the world. China may be eventually be the other -- that is, if you ignore things like the mysterious disappearance of Jack Ma.
- alwillis 6y ago
  If anything the dollar has become stronger since we got off the gold standard… That's absolutely not true. Getting off the gold standard removed the pretense that there was a limit to the amount of dollars that could be printed. The purchasing power of the dollar has continued to drop since then—https://howmuch.net/articles/rise-and-fall-dollar https://howmuch.net/articles/rise-and-fall-dollar There's also no guarantee the dollar will remain the reserve currency, as China, Russia and others are creating ways to get off the dollar standard [1]. [1] "The Fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System"—https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/ https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/
  - bb88 6y ago
    > That's absolutely not true. I wasn't talking about price since inflation guarantees the price of the dollar will drop over time, so technically you're right. I was really talking about trust. And much of that trust is that the dollar is that the price is the same from day to day for the most part. Sure there's inflation, but if I own $1M I don't expect it to be worth 10% of that tomorrow. > There's also no guarantee the dollar will remain the reserve currency, as China, Russia and others... So, would you really really trust Russia and China with their currency? Where the hell is Jack Ma? Huh?

bb88 6y ago

> And to add to this, the more that one comes to understand the machinations of central banks (particularly the behavior of the US Fed).... I have a pretty good idea of the way the Fed works and I have no interest in holding bitcoin. The Fed seems to be doing a really good job targeting the inflation rate even in times of financial crisis in the past couple of decades. Bitcoin prices are too unstable to be anything more than a crypto lottery. > and the limited long-term viability of the dollar-centric monetary system, the more one sees it from this perspective. If anything the dollar has become stronger since we got off the gold standard and has become the unofficial currency of the world. China may be eventually be the other -- that is, if you ignore things like the mysterious disappearance of Jack Ma.

alwillis 6y ago
If anything the dollar has become stronger since we got off the gold standard… That's absolutely not true. Getting off the gold standard removed the pretense that there was a limit to the amount of dollars that could be printed. The purchasing power of the dollar has continued to drop since then—https://howmuch.net/articles/rise-and-fall-dollar https://howmuch.net/articles/rise-and-fall-dollar There's also no guarantee the dollar will remain the reserve currency, as China, Russia and others are creating ways to get off the dollar standard [1]. [1] "The Fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System"—https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/ https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/
- bb88 6y ago
  > That's absolutely not true. I wasn't talking about price since inflation guarantees the price of the dollar will drop over time, so technically you're right. I was really talking about trust. And much of that trust is that the dollar is that the price is the same from day to day for the most part. Sure there's inflation, but if I own $1M I don't expect it to be worth 10% of that tomorrow. > There's also no guarantee the dollar will remain the reserve currency, as China, Russia and others... So, would you really really trust Russia and China with their currency? Where the hell is Jack Ma? Huh?