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> Believing that inflation rates in the next years won't spike as a result requires an amount of trust even more artificially inflated than the USD today. I th

> Believing that inflation rates in the next years won't spike as a result requires an amount of trust even more artificially inflated than the USD today. I think I've been hearing this for the last 11 years, and haven't seen any spikes in inflation.

Supermancho 6y ago
There's a handy set of compounded effects at play. The inflation is pretty evident in the stock market and real-estate, which are the assets being bought up. Consumerism and efficiency in delivering consumer goods has kept pace with inflation. It's there (from QE), just not where you're measuring. It will seep into others over time (like agri) as food supply needs to increase. Luckily, with global warming, land that was good for farming and living has been affected negatively (floods, droughts, etc) allowing people, farmers and meat to move farther north. eg The cattle that now sit on the California central valley land instead of southern CA like the city of Corona. The land is relatively cheap north, much to the chagrin of Idaho natives and such, who face a deluge of immigrants with relatively vast wealth. Food subsidies and the aforementioned weather have kept food prices relatively low...although you might notice that non-McDonalds food will cost you about 10$ a meal, as food prices have doubled in 11 years. Give it a bit more time. Now that the QE has ramped up to ridiculous levels, you can sit back and watch the inflation continue at 4x instead of 2x for the most affected verticals.
- JamesBarney 6y ago
  So inflation is usually used to describe how the reduced purchasing power of a dollar with respect to goods and services. The stock market and real estate aren't goods and services, they are assets. The price of assets can vary quite wildly based on the interest rates (Looking at a net present value calculation explains why). But these fluctuations are unrelated to fluctuations in the prices of goods and services.(i.e. inflation) Food prices definitely haven't doubled in the last 10 years. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/food-price-outlook/#Consumer%20Price%20Index https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/fo... People complaining about inflation are usually asking us to trade a very real current harm-underemployment for a hypothetical harm that hasn't materialized in the last 13 years despite repeated warnings-inflation. This seems like a bad trade especially since mainstream macro theory says the risks of rampant surprise inflation are low.
  - Supermancho 6y ago
    > Food prices definitely haven't doubled in the last 10 years. Not all foods. Again, food has a number of factors that's countering the inflationary forces. > The price of assets can vary quite wildly based on the interest rates That's irrelevant to the spike in value that has occurred while the rate has sat at 0. The inflation of the prices of stocks and property assets are evident and the realization of no other way to invest wealth - bond returns are less than 1% now, which is why they are basically useless.
    - JamesBarney 6y ago
      The short term rate has sat at 0, but the long term rate has always been above 0.

Supermancho 6y ago

There's a handy set of compounded effects at play. The inflation is pretty evident in the stock market and real-estate, which are the assets being bought up. Consumerism and efficiency in delivering consumer goods has kept pace with inflation. It's there (from QE), just not where you're measuring. It will seep into others over time (like agri) as food supply needs to increase. Luckily, with global warming, land that was good for farming and living has been affected negatively (floods, droughts, etc) allowing people, farmers and meat to move farther north. eg The cattle that now sit on the California central valley land instead of southern CA like the city of Corona. The land is relatively cheap north, much to the chagrin of Idaho natives and such, who face a deluge of immigrants with relatively vast wealth. Food subsidies and the aforementioned weather have kept food prices relatively low...although you might notice that non-McDonalds food will cost you about 10$ a meal, as food prices have doubled in 11 years. Give it a bit more time. Now that the QE has ramped up to ridiculous levels, you can sit back and watch the inflation continue at 4x instead of 2x for the most affected verticals.

JamesBarney 6y ago
So inflation is usually used to describe how the reduced purchasing power of a dollar with respect to goods and services. The stock market and real estate aren't goods and services, they are assets. The price of assets can vary quite wildly based on the interest rates (Looking at a net present value calculation explains why). But these fluctuations are unrelated to fluctuations in the prices of goods and services.(i.e. inflation) Food prices definitely haven't doubled in the last 10 years. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/food-price-outlook/#Consumer%20Price%20Index https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/fo... People complaining about inflation are usually asking us to trade a very real current harm-underemployment for a hypothetical harm that hasn't materialized in the last 13 years despite repeated warnings-inflation. This seems like a bad trade especially since mainstream macro theory says the risks of rampant surprise inflation are low.
- Supermancho 6y ago
  > Food prices definitely haven't doubled in the last 10 years. Not all foods. Again, food has a number of factors that's countering the inflationary forces. > The price of assets can vary quite wildly based on the interest rates That's irrelevant to the spike in value that has occurred while the rate has sat at 0. The inflation of the prices of stocks and property assets are evident and the realization of no other way to invest wealth - bond returns are less than 1% now, which is why they are basically useless.
  - JamesBarney 6y ago
    The short term rate has sat at 0, but the long term rate has always been above 0.