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I am hoping the incoming administration invokes the defense production act to help with production of vaccine and testing supplies, as well as providing a compr

I am hoping the incoming administration invokes the defense production act to help with production of vaccine and testing supplies, as well as providing a comprehensive policy at the federal level regarding vaccine distribution. The current admin is basically letting things roll out on their own. What I am seeing is that if we do everything right, which up to now we have not, early fall is a good target for things starting to turn back to normal. I wonder if a more concentrated effort could shave a month off that. And given the projected estimates of how many tens of thousands will die in the next few weeks, and the additional surge after everyone decided to travel for the holidays, February is likely to be straight up lethal.

djsumdog 6y ago
Even with vaccinations, this virus will be around for another 10 years. It took 185+ years to eradicate smallpox (mostly from a big WHO push in the 60s/70s). It's still not possible to eradicate Polio. Even with a massive push, it's not like a vaccine will make this go away. We have a lot of information now about how to treat and not treat this virus. A bunch of early deaths were due to overuse of high pressure ventilators and the Governess of NY and Michigan putting sick elderly people with healthy elderly people in nursing homes without adequate isolation (most had 2 or more people per room) killed a lot of people in the first three months. We overreacted to the virus, like a social auto-immune response. We also know the fatalities are 95% over 55. This virus has mostly reduced our life expectancy. By 5 years? 1 year? That's difficult to determine at this point. Everyone is going on about "long covid" now, but if you actually read the papers, the whole things starts to break down to a couple of case studies of 40~50 people each. There may be long term effects for heavily exposed people (health care workers) and the elderly, but the "long covid" narrative is another one if abuse and fear; not grounded in hard science and accurate risk analysis. For things to go back to normal, the vaccine is not the solution. The solution is to stop spreading constant fear. The Great Barrington deceleration has been shunned and dismissed by all major media outlets, yet it's signed by many doctors, academics and professionals and it makes a lot of sense. Humanity has a new virus and we need to learn to live with that. The countries who have avoided it can keep shut down, but at some point it's no longer going to be feasible to do so.
- IgorPartola 6y ago
  The top infectious dresses expert in the country certainly disagrees with a lot of what you are saying. Yes it will stick around. Yes the vaccine will help a great deal. What exactly is your point? That there is no reason to rush? https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/04/us/coronavirus-pandemic-year-two-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/04/us/coronavirus-pandemic-year-...
  - djsumdog 6y ago
    and meanwhile people are losing this businesses, their livelihoods, their mental health and absolutely everything. A women in California invested heavily in outdoor dining equipment, only to be shut down, and then she sees a movie production company setup a full catering set right next to her restaurant. The top infection dresses experts can be wrong. Don't appeal to authority. There are literally thousands of other doctors and scientists who say further lockdowns are not helping. The WHO is saying lockdowns should not be used except as a last resort! Don't listen to just one person. Look at all the options. Lockdowns don't work.
    - IgorPartola 6y ago
      Seatbelts don’t work. Lots of people die in car crashes and lots of them were wearing seatbelts. Stop wearing seatbelts. Some doctors believe this. Don’t believe the experts. Be your own researcher. Your Google Fu is certainly a match for the CDC and its $6.5b yearly budget.
      - djsumdog 6y ago
        It's not remotely comparable. You can test seat belts with crash dummies. It's a clear experiment, and yes, people should have been skeptical of seat belts until they were proven to be effective. Auto companies were pushing against seat-belts and safety. Today big industry is pushing for lockdowns (and we should question those motives). It's a bad argument. There are literally thousands of people in the Great Barrington Declaration, who have sound arguments for ending lockdowns. We can literally look at the numbers across the globe from different policies in different countries and see there is no direct correlational between any government action and fatalities. Correlation isn't causation, but we DO NOT even have correlation! Scientists and doctors are saying we need to end this mass hysteria. We should listen to all the experts, not only the ones we agree with.
hhkb 6y ago
It’s almost as if the current administration is doing it on purpose in order to make the situation far worse than it needs to be.
- IgorPartola 6y ago
  The only plausible reason I can see for the current admin to not invoke the DPA is because it would hurt short term corporate profits. Long term it makes sense that the sooner we contain the pandemic and open up the economy that those same companies would benefit greatly. I have no explanation for why the current admin isn’t spearheading and funding a federal strategy for vaccine distribution.
faitswulff 6y ago
It’s ridiculous how you’re being downvoted for speaking common sense.
- IgorPartola 6y ago
  There is a surprisingly large number of people on HN that cannot stand seeing criticism of anything that Dear Leader does.
dragontamer 6y ago
It's not production that's the problem. It's distribution right now. We can see states with good resources are vaccinating as quickly as the doses come in (a few days of lag time, but otherwise doing good). But many states are stuck in logistics hell. These vaccines need -80C or -20C storage to remain unspoiled. And the administrators are overworked nurses who haven't had rest for months, due to the pandemic. Once a dose leaves the -80C or -20C storage center, you only have a few days before the dose is ruined. So you need careful planning, maybe even allow a bit of waste for easier distribution. The military / national guard can help with distribution, but once again the nursing shortage is biting America in the ass. I'm not really sure how to solve that issue. (Well... I dunno how to solve it this year. Ultimately we just need more immigrants and/or students)
- maxerickson 6y ago
  They aren't seperable. If you have lots of vaccine, there is no reason to do prioritization and things will inevitably go faster. I'd put myself on a list for the hospital to call me any time to come in for a vaccine, but they don't have anywhere near enough vaccine to spend the time making that list (doses for about 5% of the county available, I'm towards the end of prioritization).
- IgorPartola 6y ago
  Investing in the education of your citizens is a proven and popular technique for having a higher quality and quantity of work force. Both production and distribution are problems. Hence why I hope the new admin addresses both with DPA and a comprehensive strategy respectively.
  - dragontamer 6y ago
    It'd be late for that. Logistics takes weeks, or even months, to ramp up. This is stuff that needed to be planned out last October if we wanted it working this month or next month. I guess better late than never. But... don't hold your breath. We're going to be having these logistic / distribution problems for many weeks moving forward.
loceng 6y ago
Upvoted because although I agree with your sentiment, the arguably free market in this case, at this point is going to ramp up production as efficiently as possible. I assume all of these companies are each going to make $ billions even if they overproduce. They're also making a name for themselves/furthering their brand awareness, no doubt every 5-10 years we may have a similar pandemic to counter if bad actors rally to spread viruses, at an exponential rate too via different factors. The best defense is a good offense: UBI so people can survive regardless of working, and culturally people not believing that being safe and wearing a mask isn't preventing their freedoms; culturally that this is an issue is a sign of multi-generational dis-ease progression from citizens not being given enough, organized suffering/suppression of the masses for control/submission purposes. Andrew Yang's core policies will break apart the duopoly and "take the boot off of people's throats" - and then people can start to heal these deep wounds, open their hearts, allow their IQ and reasoning skills to open up/develop, to develop empathy, etc.
- IgorPartola 6y ago
  Pfizer is reporting that they have vaccine doses ready that nobody is picking up. Besides, I personally don’t believe the free market is capable of telling states what to do or even knows what would be the most efficient way to distribute the vaccines.
  - loceng 6y ago
    Right, I remember seeing that headline - that's due to the Trump administration's incompetence and/or treason; can't do much about that except correct the system, break apart the duopoly and the power of what has become the limited players in mainstream media; Andrew Yang's Journalism Dollars and Democracy Dollars both would help counter this adequately, along with his UBI/Freedom Dividend policy and Ranked Choice Voting - 4 simple policies, along with government option for healthcare - would powerfully shift the system immediately, and put the US on an exponential path again, without so much friction, allowing thriving for everyone; the buying power of "$1,000"/month increases exponentially as we automate more and more processes. Edit to add: Sorry about lazy people downvoting you, whenever I talk about Bitcoin - pro-Bitcoiners don't qualitatively engage, just a quick hit of dopamine satisfies them and suppresses contrarian thoughts that aren't financially incentivized like their Bitcoin propaganda and behaviour is.
Exmoor 6y ago
I don't really think production of vaccines or test supplies is limited in a way that could be improved significantly with DPA. Vaccine production for both the US approved mRNA vaccines is highly specialized and those companies are heavily incentivized to deliver vaccines as soon as possible since they have a de-facto duopoly for an unknown amount of time. Testing supplies are a probably a lot more scalable, but I haven't heard about supply shortages with tests in months. The areas where executive policy could make a difference are timelines for approval of additional vaccines and optimizing vaccine delivery to hit the highest number of individuals as soon as possible. Prioritizing quick approval and distribution of the Oxford/AZ vaccine and doing the same for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine when data becomes available would likely save thousands of lives over the next few months, but neither the current nor future US administrations seem to be taking an interest in this.
- IgorPartola 6y ago
  There are lots of things the DPA can help with. Testing for one. PPA. Cold storage pods needed for vaccine distribution. Raw materials for any of the above.

djsumdog 6y ago

Even with vaccinations, this virus will be around for another 10 years. It took 185+ years to eradicate smallpox (mostly from a big WHO push in the 60s/70s). It's still not possible to eradicate Polio. Even with a massive push, it's not like a vaccine will make this go away. We have a lot of information now about how to treat and not treat this virus. A bunch of early deaths were due to overuse of high pressure ventilators and the Governess of NY and Michigan putting sick elderly people with healthy elderly people in nursing homes without adequate isolation (most had 2 or more people per room) killed a lot of people in the first three months. We overreacted to the virus, like a social auto-immune response. We also know the fatalities are 95% over 55. This virus has mostly reduced our life expectancy. By 5 years? 1 year? That's difficult to determine at this point. Everyone is going on about "long covid" now, but if you actually read the papers, the whole things starts to break down to a couple of case studies of 40~50 people each. There may be long term effects for heavily exposed people (health care workers) and the elderly, but the "long covid" narrative is another one if abuse and fear; not grounded in hard science and accurate risk analysis. For things to go back to normal, the vaccine is not the solution. The solution is to stop spreading constant fear. The Great Barrington deceleration has been shunned and dismissed by all major media outlets, yet it's signed by many doctors, academics and professionals and it makes a lot of sense. Humanity has a new virus and we need to learn to live with that. The countries who have avoided it can keep shut down, but at some point it's no longer going to be feasible to do so.

IgorPartola 6y ago
The top infectious dresses expert in the country certainly disagrees with a lot of what you are saying. Yes it will stick around. Yes the vaccine will help a great deal. What exactly is your point? That there is no reason to rush? https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/04/us/coronavirus-pandemic-year-two-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/04/us/coronavirus-pandemic-year-...
- djsumdog 6y ago
  and meanwhile people are losing this businesses, their livelihoods, their mental health and absolutely everything. A women in California invested heavily in outdoor dining equipment, only to be shut down, and then she sees a movie production company setup a full catering set right next to her restaurant. The top infection dresses experts can be wrong. Don't appeal to authority. There are literally thousands of other doctors and scientists who say further lockdowns are not helping. The WHO is saying lockdowns should not be used except as a last resort! Don't listen to just one person. Look at all the options. Lockdowns don't work.
  - IgorPartola 6y ago
    Seatbelts don’t work. Lots of people die in car crashes and lots of them were wearing seatbelts. Stop wearing seatbelts. Some doctors believe this. Don’t believe the experts. Be your own researcher. Your Google Fu is certainly a match for the CDC and its $6.5b yearly budget.
    - djsumdog 6y ago
      It's not remotely comparable. You can test seat belts with crash dummies. It's a clear experiment, and yes, people should have been skeptical of seat belts until they were proven to be effective. Auto companies were pushing against seat-belts and safety. Today big industry is pushing for lockdowns (and we should question those motives). It's a bad argument. There are literally thousands of people in the Great Barrington Declaration, who have sound arguments for ending lockdowns. We can literally look at the numbers across the globe from different policies in different countries and see there is no direct correlational between any government action and fatalities. Correlation isn't causation, but we DO NOT even have correlation! Scientists and doctors are saying we need to end this mass hysteria. We should listen to all the experts, not only the ones we agree with.

hhkb 6y ago

It’s almost as if the current administration is doing it on purpose in order to make the situation far worse than it needs to be.

IgorPartola 6y ago
The only plausible reason I can see for the current admin to not invoke the DPA is because it would hurt short term corporate profits. Long term it makes sense that the sooner we contain the pandemic and open up the economy that those same companies would benefit greatly. I have no explanation for why the current admin isn’t spearheading and funding a federal strategy for vaccine distribution.

faitswulff 6y ago

It’s ridiculous how you’re being downvoted for speaking common sense.

IgorPartola 6y ago
There is a surprisingly large number of people on HN that cannot stand seeing criticism of anything that Dear Leader does.

dragontamer 6y ago

It's not production that's the problem. It's distribution right now. We can see states with good resources are vaccinating as quickly as the doses come in (a few days of lag time, but otherwise doing good). But many states are stuck in logistics hell. These vaccines need -80C or -20C storage to remain unspoiled. And the administrators are overworked nurses who haven't had rest for months, due to the pandemic. Once a dose leaves the -80C or -20C storage center, you only have a few days before the dose is ruined. So you need careful planning, maybe even allow a bit of waste for easier distribution. The military / national guard can help with distribution, but once again the nursing shortage is biting America in the ass. I'm not really sure how to solve that issue. (Well... I dunno how to solve it this year. Ultimately we just need more immigrants and/or students)

maxerickson 6y ago
They aren't seperable. If you have lots of vaccine, there is no reason to do prioritization and things will inevitably go faster. I'd put myself on a list for the hospital to call me any time to come in for a vaccine, but they don't have anywhere near enough vaccine to spend the time making that list (doses for about 5% of the county available, I'm towards the end of prioritization).
IgorPartola 6y ago
Investing in the education of your citizens is a proven and popular technique for having a higher quality and quantity of work force. Both production and distribution are problems. Hence why I hope the new admin addresses both with DPA and a comprehensive strategy respectively.
- dragontamer 6y ago
  It'd be late for that. Logistics takes weeks, or even months, to ramp up. This is stuff that needed to be planned out last October if we wanted it working this month or next month. I guess better late than never. But... don't hold your breath. We're going to be having these logistic / distribution problems for many weeks moving forward.

loceng 6y ago

Upvoted because although I agree with your sentiment, the arguably free market in this case, at this point is going to ramp up production as efficiently as possible. I assume all of these companies are each going to make $ billions even if they overproduce. They're also making a name for themselves/furthering their brand awareness, no doubt every 5-10 years we may have a similar pandemic to counter if bad actors rally to spread viruses, at an exponential rate too via different factors. The best defense is a good offense: UBI so people can survive regardless of working, and culturally people not believing that being safe and wearing a mask isn't preventing their freedoms; culturally that this is an issue is a sign of multi-generational dis-ease progression from citizens not being given enough, organized suffering/suppression of the masses for control/submission purposes. Andrew Yang's core policies will break apart the duopoly and "take the boot off of people's throats" - and then people can start to heal these deep wounds, open their hearts, allow their IQ and reasoning skills to open up/develop, to develop empathy, etc.

IgorPartola 6y ago
Pfizer is reporting that they have vaccine doses ready that nobody is picking up. Besides, I personally don’t believe the free market is capable of telling states what to do or even knows what would be the most efficient way to distribute the vaccines.
- loceng 6y ago
  Right, I remember seeing that headline - that's due to the Trump administration's incompetence and/or treason; can't do much about that except correct the system, break apart the duopoly and the power of what has become the limited players in mainstream media; Andrew Yang's Journalism Dollars and Democracy Dollars both would help counter this adequately, along with his UBI/Freedom Dividend policy and Ranked Choice Voting - 4 simple policies, along with government option for healthcare - would powerfully shift the system immediately, and put the US on an exponential path again, without so much friction, allowing thriving for everyone; the buying power of "$1,000"/month increases exponentially as we automate more and more processes. Edit to add: Sorry about lazy people downvoting you, whenever I talk about Bitcoin - pro-Bitcoiners don't qualitatively engage, just a quick hit of dopamine satisfies them and suppresses contrarian thoughts that aren't financially incentivized like their Bitcoin propaganda and behaviour is.

Exmoor 6y ago

I don't really think production of vaccines or test supplies is limited in a way that could be improved significantly with DPA. Vaccine production for both the US approved mRNA vaccines is highly specialized and those companies are heavily incentivized to deliver vaccines as soon as possible since they have a de-facto duopoly for an unknown amount of time. Testing supplies are a probably a lot more scalable, but I haven't heard about supply shortages with tests in months. The areas where executive policy could make a difference are timelines for approval of additional vaccines and optimizing vaccine delivery to hit the highest number of individuals as soon as possible. Prioritizing quick approval and distribution of the Oxford/AZ vaccine and doing the same for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine when data becomes available would likely save thousands of lives over the next few months, but neither the current nor future US administrations seem to be taking an interest in this.

IgorPartola 6y ago
There are lots of things the DPA can help with. Testing for one. PPA. Cold storage pods needed for vaccine distribution. Raw materials for any of the above.