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I'm curious - why do you think that Bitcoin is "one of the worst ideas in modern history"? It's a very bold claim, I'd like to understand your reasoning.

bsenftner 6y ago
It's a fraud engine.
ben_w 6y ago
I’m not OP, but I agree with OP. To me, BTC looks like an inefficient way to partially solve a problem that doesn’t exist — the problem of trust. It’s only a partial solution because it only deals with the money in a transaction and not the goods/services. In addition, it also exists purely by consensus and is therefore just as vulnerable to majority demands for inflation (the limit of 21 million is a choice, not a fundamental constraint). Furthermore, I do not believe that there is a real problem of trust to be solved, not because governments never mess up currencies (of course they do), but because right now they are not messing up currencies — the stability of most major currencies demonstrates that they are broadly trusted, and conversely the value of BTC fluctuates wildly compared to fiat or resource-backed currencies because it isn’t broadly trusted. It’s also inefficient by design, being a proof-of-work that doesn’t solve real-world problems, and also limits itself to a really small number of daily transactions over all uses of the currency.
- frankenst1 6y ago
  You can't trust the government (or the central banks) to not dilute your savings by increasing the money supply - something they have already been doing in 2020 at an unprecedented rate which will continue in 2021. While Bitcoin might not be the payment system some have been hoping for, it surely provides a hedge against the incoming increase in inflation rates which is why institutional investors are increasingly replacing cash reserves with bitcoin.
  - hooande 6y ago
    can I trust the Winklevoss twins to not flood the market and dilute my bitcoin savings?
  - ben_w 6y ago
    > You can't trust the government (or the central banks) to not dilute your savings by increasing the money supply I expect the government to do so, and I also expect that it will usually be done in a controlled fashion and for broader economic benefit. Conversely, I expect that when Bitcoin goes wrong and the 21 million unit limit is replaced (call it “Bitcoin Future Fork” or whatever), this will be done by people not too familiar with hyperinflation. I’m also hedging against inflation with property, although I could also hedge against it with shares or precious metals.
    - frankenst1 6y ago
      > I expect the government to do so. I suspect many don't and many underestimate the effect inflation has on their savings. > Conversely, I expect that when Bitcoin goes wrong and the 21 million unit limit is replaced (call it “Bitcoin Future Fork” or whatever) Bitcoin is 10 years old, there are already numerous forks which changed several parameters of the original Bitcoin implementation. According to their market value, all of them failed in comparison. In fact, Bitcoin's hesitation to implement breaking changes (hard-forks) may be what the market finds valuable.
      - ben_w 6y ago
        > I suspect many don't and many underestimate the effect inflation has on their savings. Most people don’t have significant cash savings. I forget the percentage, but a ridiculously high fraction of the USA population can’t put together $1,000 for an emergency. > Bitcoin is 10 years old Early days then. The Euro is only 22 years old, and decimalisation of GBP [0] happened about 50 years ago. Both still have people shaking their canes and dreaming of the Before Times. Also: the 5,600,000-fold deflation of BTC in that time makes it almost, but not quite, as impressively unstable as hyperinflation, just in the other direction — it’s not a good thing for the economy when everyone holds onto their money instead of spending it. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimal_Day https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimal_Day
strictnein 6y ago
One issue: https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/06/12/873/bitcoin-mining-may-be-pumping-out-as-much-cosub2-sub-per-year-as-kansas-city/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/06/12/873/bitcoin-mini... > "The new study by researchers at MIT and the Technical University of Munich suggests that Bitcoin mining was consuming 45.8 terawatt-hours of electricity per year as of November 2018. That, in turn, produced estimated annual emissions of between 22 and 23 megatons of carbon dioxide, slotting the operations between the nations of Jordan and Sri Lanka in terms of greenhouse-gas pollution." It creates more CO2 than entire nations. And that number most definitely has not decreased in the past two years. We may very well be up to or past 0.1% of all global CO2 emissions due solely to crypto mining, a number that will only increase as the value of bitcoin, etc increases. What is the good that has been gained that offsets that?

bsenftner 6y ago

It's a fraud engine.

ben_w 6y ago

I’m not OP, but I agree with OP. To me, BTC looks like an inefficient way to partially solve a problem that doesn’t exist — the problem of trust. It’s only a partial solution because it only deals with the money in a transaction and not the goods/services. In addition, it also exists purely by consensus and is therefore just as vulnerable to majority demands for inflation (the limit of 21 million is a choice, not a fundamental constraint). Furthermore, I do not believe that there is a real problem of trust to be solved, not because governments never mess up currencies (of course they do), but because right now they are not messing up currencies — the stability of most major currencies demonstrates that they are broadly trusted, and conversely the value of BTC fluctuates wildly compared to fiat or resource-backed currencies because it isn’t broadly trusted. It’s also inefficient by design, being a proof-of-work that doesn’t solve real-world problems, and also limits itself to a really small number of daily transactions over all uses of the currency.

frankenst1 6y ago
You can't trust the government (or the central banks) to not dilute your savings by increasing the money supply - something they have already been doing in 2020 at an unprecedented rate which will continue in 2021. While Bitcoin might not be the payment system some have been hoping for, it surely provides a hedge against the incoming increase in inflation rates which is why institutional investors are increasingly replacing cash reserves with bitcoin.
- hooande 6y ago
  can I trust the Winklevoss twins to not flood the market and dilute my bitcoin savings?
- ben_w 6y ago
  > You can't trust the government (or the central banks) to not dilute your savings by increasing the money supply I expect the government to do so, and I also expect that it will usually be done in a controlled fashion and for broader economic benefit. Conversely, I expect that when Bitcoin goes wrong and the 21 million unit limit is replaced (call it “Bitcoin Future Fork” or whatever), this will be done by people not too familiar with hyperinflation. I’m also hedging against inflation with property, although I could also hedge against it with shares or precious metals.
  - frankenst1 6y ago
    > I expect the government to do so. I suspect many don't and many underestimate the effect inflation has on their savings. > Conversely, I expect that when Bitcoin goes wrong and the 21 million unit limit is replaced (call it “Bitcoin Future Fork” or whatever) Bitcoin is 10 years old, there are already numerous forks which changed several parameters of the original Bitcoin implementation. According to their market value, all of them failed in comparison. In fact, Bitcoin's hesitation to implement breaking changes (hard-forks) may be what the market finds valuable.
    - ben_w 6y ago
      > I suspect many don't and many underestimate the effect inflation has on their savings. Most people don’t have significant cash savings. I forget the percentage, but a ridiculously high fraction of the USA population can’t put together $1,000 for an emergency. > Bitcoin is 10 years old Early days then. The Euro is only 22 years old, and decimalisation of GBP [0] happened about 50 years ago. Both still have people shaking their canes and dreaming of the Before Times. Also: the 5,600,000-fold deflation of BTC in that time makes it almost, but not quite, as impressively unstable as hyperinflation, just in the other direction — it’s not a good thing for the economy when everyone holds onto their money instead of spending it. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimal_Day https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimal_Day

strictnein 6y ago

One issue: https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/06/12/873/bitcoin-mining-may-be-pumping-out-as-much-cosub2-sub-per-year-as-kansas-city/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/06/12/873/bitcoin-mini... > "The new study by researchers at MIT and the Technical University of Munich suggests that Bitcoin mining was consuming 45.8 terawatt-hours of electricity per year as of November 2018. That, in turn, produced estimated annual emissions of between 22 and 23 megatons of carbon dioxide, slotting the operations between the nations of Jordan and Sri Lanka in terms of greenhouse-gas pollution." It creates more CO2 than entire nations. And that number most definitely has not decreased in the past two years. We may very well be up to or past 0.1% of all global CO2 emissions due solely to crypto mining, a number that will only increase as the value of bitcoin, etc increases. What is the good that has been gained that offsets that?