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A future where AVs exist that can replace human drivers is a future where so many requirements and drivers for personal mobility have changed as well: due to th

A future where AVs exist that can replace human drivers is a future where so many requirements and drivers for personal mobility have changed as well: due to the possibility of replacing a human performing a highly complex task in situ. That future may not even want or need cars. The other, more realistic future is one where human-level AVs are always just out of reach. Where causes of accidents are just as intransparent as with human drivers, we're all a little bit safer but a patch can cause catastrophic divergent behavior due to the innate non-linearity of the problem. That future may not want or need cars either but it may not even be considered.

Dylan16807 6y ago
> The other, more realistic future is one where human-level AVs are always just out of reach. That sounds pretty unlikely to me. "just out of reach" is a very narrow band, and to be stuck there despite decades of improvements would be pretty strange. I think there are only two likely outcomes for the next 50 to 100 years: either we don't even get particularly close, or we'll slowly but surely surpass the median human driver.
ksk 6y ago
>That future may not even want or need cars. Agreed, 100%. Instead of AV, we could focus on remote presence and other tech to make cars and/or daily commute unnecessary.