6 ms·

So one of my takeaways from all of this is we cannot wait long enough based on current methods anymore. This virus is just one and it is likely to get worse. We

So one of my takeaways from all of this is we cannot wait long enough based on current methods anymore. This virus is just one and it is likely to get worse. We need to invest now into large scale computer simulation of vaccines or things will become much worse. There is risk here, however I feel strongly that if we do need to move faster or today will become normal and that cannot become the normal! I read that most of the vacancies only took a few weeks for the scientist to create, however the current testing methods are why we are nearly 9 months to delivery. We as a society have to invest on new methods to move forward creation to delivery faster. I am not claiming any expertise here - I majored in Biochemistry but never finished (moved to tech). I do have 14 doctors / geneticist / infection disease specialist in my family that share this view.

castratikron 6y ago
I've been wondering the same thing. How big of a computer would you need to accurately simulate an immune system? Or at least accurate enough to cut down on some of the tedious and time consuming work? Could something like this be built today with enough effort? I know nothing about immunology BTW.
- shellfishgene 6y ago
  The knowledge is not there to simulate the immune system in any useful way. Apart from that the main issue why it takes long to test vaccines are side effects. Checking for those would require simulating the whole body including various interactions with its environment.
Nbox9 6y ago
> This virus is just one and it is likely to get worse. We need to invest now into large scale computer simulation of vaccines or things will become much worse. This seems like a logical leap to me. Yes we need to do something to make us less open to viral threats, but you don’t present any evidence that improved computer simulations can be a useful tool in helping develop/test vaccines faster.
- myrandomcomment 6y ago
  Computer simulation of biological systems has been something that has been in use for years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computational_biology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computational_biology https://a16z.com/2020/06/14/folding-at-home-supercomputer-protein-dynamics/ https://a16z.com/2020/06/14/folding-at-home-supercomputer-pr... https://www.hpcwire.com/2020/06/09/supercomputer-research-redesigns-drugs-without-the-side-effects/ https://www.hpcwire.com/2020/06/09/supercomputer-research-re... https://www.ibm.com/blogs/ibm-anz/supercomputing-a-covid-19-vaccine/ https://www.ibm.com/blogs/ibm-anz/supercomputing-a-covid-19-... https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/us/fastest-supercomputer-coronavirus-scn-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/us/fastest-supercomputer-coro... A simple search will yield months of reading. Just go to an HPC conference like SCinet (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SCinet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SCinet) and you will see besides energy, nukes and AI biological research is a key use of the computing power.
ashtonkem 6y ago
It's obvious that our methods of testing a vaccine have not caught up with our ability to produce a vaccine. But it does not seem clear or even plausible that we're ready to jump straight to full computer simulation. Our ability to predict protein folding via computer is pretty spotty, simulating the entire human immune system seems beyond our reach. It also does not really seem to be supported by the evidence that things will never get back to normal if we don't do something radically different. We have a vaccine, there is no indication that we can't just distribute it and put this pandemic to bed.
- daniellarusso 6y ago
  It is just a credibility issue. I was talking with a doctor friend that oversees an ambulatory care group for the county, and they were able to allocate vaccines for the EMTs (first-responders). Over 50% refused to be vaccinated. Not sure how we overcome that.
  - _ph_ 6y ago
    This is a huge problem and not limited to anti-vaccination propaganda. The even bigger problem, climate change, suffers from the same problem. There is very loud propaganda out, especially on social media, which tries to deny the existance, throws doubt at attempts to limit it. Because it is spread by certain political forces, and this is an international problem. One which we have to address quickly, both now for the pandemic and long term (as in the next years) the climate change. I am especially baffled by the anti-vaccination movement, as I grew up in a world where smallpox and polio had been basically erradicated due to vaccinations as were most of the typical childhood diseases. But where all the victims of those diseases were not forgotten yet. There was no doubt whatever to be vaccinated, I still can remember the polio vaccinations I got in school. And those were ridiculously risky compared to a modern Covid-19 vaccination. But overall the vaccinations saved so many more people than they harmed. One can only hope that the next months will bring a change. On the one side, there will still be many deaths due to Covid-19, as the death spike follows 4-8 weeks after the infection count spike. On the other side, in two months the effect of the vaccinations should become very visible.
_ph_ 6y ago
The mRNA vaccines certainly look like a break-through in vaccine technology and with that technology now being used, it should be a good base for future vaccines. However I think the biggest change society in the west should take from Covid-19 is better disease fighting preparations. A lot of countries managed to avoid Covid-19 almost alltogether. All nations should learn from this. There are plenty of steps to be taken which could mostly prevent the catastrophic results of Covid-19 so the 9 months it took now to get an approved vaccine would have been an acceptable waiting time. - reporting of the initial outbreak in Wuhan was too slow, but still, many countries acted in time. - whenever a local outbreak of a similar new disease is reported, all countries should immideately go on an alert level, so that when the disease starts to spread, they can act immediately. If efficient reactions had been taken in January, a lot of things had been easier. - of course watch international travel closely. If you close down flights, close down all travels. It doesn't make sense to ban flights from China, when the virus was coming to the US from Italy. It doesn't make sense to ban EU travellers but allow them to enter relaying via Turkey. Even better: don't ban flight travel, but test on arrival, make a short quarantine mandatory, that is more effective. - lock down quickly and hard where neccessary, especial with local outbreaks and the by far biggest elephant in the room: - better hygene overall. Everyone should own proper masks, FFP2 masks should be stock piled by the government in generous amounts. Going forward, if you have symptoms of any infectious disease, wear a fucking mask! Even if it is the common cold, there is absolutely no justification to spread them to strangers. Even if it is not a deadly pandemic, infectious diseases could be reduced considerably by masks and hand sanitizing/washing. The yearly flu is deadly enough, there are no reasons to let it spread so freely.
- marvin 6y ago
  I almost can't believe we were laughed and scoffed at for wearing a mask in March. Whether we had a respiratory infection or not. My biggest takeaway from the epidemic is that herd conformity is a ridiculously powerful force. Never underestimate it.
  - _ph_ 6y ago
    I was in Taiwan in 2013 and there it is absolutely common to wear a mask in public. Also, at the entrance of the 101 tower, there is a mall which had hand sanitizers at every entrance. Both things should become standard at all larger venues and would help a lot with all kind of infectious diseases. I also hope, it becomes the new default to stay at home and work from there, if you have any symptoms. I don't know how many colds is picked up in the office in previous years.

castratikron 6y ago

I've been wondering the same thing. How big of a computer would you need to accurately simulate an immune system? Or at least accurate enough to cut down on some of the tedious and time consuming work? Could something like this be built today with enough effort? I know nothing about immunology BTW.

shellfishgene 6y ago
The knowledge is not there to simulate the immune system in any useful way. Apart from that the main issue why it takes long to test vaccines are side effects. Checking for those would require simulating the whole body including various interactions with its environment.

Nbox9 6y ago

> This virus is just one and it is likely to get worse. We need to invest now into large scale computer simulation of vaccines or things will become much worse. This seems like a logical leap to me. Yes we need to do something to make us less open to viral threats, but you don’t present any evidence that improved computer simulations can be a useful tool in helping develop/test vaccines faster.

myrandomcomment 6y ago
Computer simulation of biological systems has been something that has been in use for years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computational_biology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computational_biology https://a16z.com/2020/06/14/folding-at-home-supercomputer-protein-dynamics/ https://a16z.com/2020/06/14/folding-at-home-supercomputer-pr... https://www.hpcwire.com/2020/06/09/supercomputer-research-redesigns-drugs-without-the-side-effects/ https://www.hpcwire.com/2020/06/09/supercomputer-research-re... https://www.ibm.com/blogs/ibm-anz/supercomputing-a-covid-19-vaccine/ https://www.ibm.com/blogs/ibm-anz/supercomputing-a-covid-19-... https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/us/fastest-supercomputer-coronavirus-scn-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/us/fastest-supercomputer-coro... A simple search will yield months of reading. Just go to an HPC conference like SCinet (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SCinet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SCinet) and you will see besides energy, nukes and AI biological research is a key use of the computing power.

ashtonkem 6y ago

It's obvious that our methods of testing a vaccine have not caught up with our ability to produce a vaccine. But it does not seem clear or even plausible that we're ready to jump straight to full computer simulation. Our ability to predict protein folding via computer is pretty spotty, simulating the entire human immune system seems beyond our reach. It also does not really seem to be supported by the evidence that things will never get back to normal if we don't do something radically different. We have a vaccine, there is no indication that we can't just distribute it and put this pandemic to bed.

daniellarusso 6y ago
It is just a credibility issue. I was talking with a doctor friend that oversees an ambulatory care group for the county, and they were able to allocate vaccines for the EMTs (first-responders). Over 50% refused to be vaccinated. Not sure how we overcome that.
- _ph_ 6y ago
  This is a huge problem and not limited to anti-vaccination propaganda. The even bigger problem, climate change, suffers from the same problem. There is very loud propaganda out, especially on social media, which tries to deny the existance, throws doubt at attempts to limit it. Because it is spread by certain political forces, and this is an international problem. One which we have to address quickly, both now for the pandemic and long term (as in the next years) the climate change. I am especially baffled by the anti-vaccination movement, as I grew up in a world where smallpox and polio had been basically erradicated due to vaccinations as were most of the typical childhood diseases. But where all the victims of those diseases were not forgotten yet. There was no doubt whatever to be vaccinated, I still can remember the polio vaccinations I got in school. And those were ridiculously risky compared to a modern Covid-19 vaccination. But overall the vaccinations saved so many more people than they harmed. One can only hope that the next months will bring a change. On the one side, there will still be many deaths due to Covid-19, as the death spike follows 4-8 weeks after the infection count spike. On the other side, in two months the effect of the vaccinations should become very visible.

_ph_ 6y ago

The mRNA vaccines certainly look like a break-through in vaccine technology and with that technology now being used, it should be a good base for future vaccines. However I think the biggest change society in the west should take from Covid-19 is better disease fighting preparations. A lot of countries managed to avoid Covid-19 almost alltogether. All nations should learn from this. There are plenty of steps to be taken which could mostly prevent the catastrophic results of Covid-19 so the 9 months it took now to get an approved vaccine would have been an acceptable waiting time. - reporting of the initial outbreak in Wuhan was too slow, but still, many countries acted in time. - whenever a local outbreak of a similar new disease is reported, all countries should immideately go on an alert level, so that when the disease starts to spread, they can act immediately. If efficient reactions had been taken in January, a lot of things had been easier. - of course watch international travel closely. If you close down flights, close down all travels. It doesn't make sense to ban flights from China, when the virus was coming to the US from Italy. It doesn't make sense to ban EU travellers but allow them to enter relaying via Turkey. Even better: don't ban flight travel, but test on arrival, make a short quarantine mandatory, that is more effective. - lock down quickly and hard where neccessary, especial with local outbreaks and the by far biggest elephant in the room: - better hygene overall. Everyone should own proper masks, FFP2 masks should be stock piled by the government in generous amounts. Going forward, if you have symptoms of any infectious disease, wear a fucking mask! Even if it is the common cold, there is absolutely no justification to spread them to strangers. Even if it is not a deadly pandemic, infectious diseases could be reduced considerably by masks and hand sanitizing/washing. The yearly flu is deadly enough, there are no reasons to let it spread so freely.

marvin 6y ago
I almost can't believe we were laughed and scoffed at for wearing a mask in March. Whether we had a respiratory infection or not. My biggest takeaway from the epidemic is that herd conformity is a ridiculously powerful force. Never underestimate it.
- _ph_ 6y ago
  I was in Taiwan in 2013 and there it is absolutely common to wear a mask in public. Also, at the entrance of the 101 tower, there is a mall which had hand sanitizers at every entrance. Both things should become standard at all larger venues and would help a lot with all kind of infectious diseases. I also hope, it becomes the new default to stay at home and work from there, if you have any symptoms. I don't know how many colds is picked up in the office in previous years.