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"People Thought Covid-19 Was Relatively Harmless for Younger Adults. They Were Wrong."[1] "New research shows that July may have been the deadliest month for y
by pmoriarty 6y ago
"People Thought Covid-19 Was Relatively Harmless for Younger Adults. They Were Wrong."[1]
"New research shows that July may have been the deadliest month for young adults in modern American history."
The latest episode of This Week in Virology[2] covered this article and the Journal of the American Medial Association (JAMA) article it was based on.
"From March to July a total of 76,088 all-cause deaths occured in the US in adults from 25 to 44 years of age, which is about 12,000 more than you would expected (the expected number would be about 64,000) so 12,000 excess deaths. Among this age group there were 4,500 COVID-19 deaths recorded. That's 38% of the excess mortality. The idea is that that is due to COVID-19, and they go in to that further and say, yeah, that is probably what it was."
"The point is, as we're learning, anyone who says this group doesn't get infected, that group doesn't get sick, they're just wrong... the data shows that if you're between 25 and 44 you can die of COVID-19..."
"And that's only the deaths. There are a lot of people who got sick with this and still aren't quite well.. and that's not good either... you can get a mild infection and still get long-term COVID.. even if it's not mild or long-term, you could could still have a relatively short-term illness that puts you in the hospital, you don't die - you're really sick. And 4,500 people, that's more than we lost on 9/11. Just a little perspective. Just the deaths is still a huge number of people. And those are just the confirmed COVID deaths... that's 38% of the excess, and the article is basically - what's the rest of the excess? Because you don't expect that many people to die, and a significant portion of those are certainly going to be people who just didn't get a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 before they died."
Then they quote from the NYT article:
"In fact, July appears to have been the deadliest month among this age group in modern American history. Over the past 20 years, an average of 11,000 young American adults died each July. This year that number swelled to over 16,000."
"I don't think you can argue to us that that's not COVID-related. What else is going on? Nor can you say that "oh, it must be harmless in this age group", this is really having an effect."
"And this is not political, folks. This is the truth. This is science. This is the data. This is what we see."
[1] - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/opinion/covid-deaths-young-adults.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/opinion/covid-deaths-youn...
[2] - starting around 4'50" in episode 696: https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-696/ https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-696/
- matz1 6y agohttps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... the estimate for ifr : 0-19 years: 0.00003 20-49 years: 0.0002 50-69 years: 0.005 70+ years: 0.054
- sharken 6y agoAnd if you factor in co-morbid conditions, it will be very clear how much that matters to IFR.
- incrudible 6y agoThese numbers do not add up with CDC statistics, which show that about 7000 people in that age group died from COVID over the whole year. One mistake I see is to take the average of twenty years of deaths in that age group as baseline. The number of deaths from drug overdoses has steadily risen from 20,000 per year in 2000 to over 80,000 last year - with a sharp spike at the beginning of this year. Edit: The paper that is cited in the introduction acknowledges that an increase opiate overdoses may be the underlying factor here. They only had data from 2018 to estimate its impact.
- nradov 6y agoEvery death is a tragedy, but the vast majority of those younger COVID-19 patients who died had at least one serious co-morbid condition, such as obesity. For those under 50 with no co-morbid conditions the risk of death is extremely low.
- sharken 6y agoExactly this, US is famous for obesity and should actively pursue doing something about it. Hopefully Biden will take this up when he is president.
- amanaplanacanal 6y agoWhat do you propose be done? It’s not like people have been unaware of this issue for decades now.