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Wouldn't we generally expect any given year is the deadliest year on record? If we assume (1) the population strictly increases year on year and (2) deaths are

Wouldn't we generally expect any given year is the deadliest year on record? If we assume (1) the population strictly increases year on year and (2) deaths are proportional to population in a given year, then it would be true. Weaken these assumptions and it should still be true for the most part.

MattGaiser 6y ago
The key part is the "by far." The article addresses this in the first few paragraphs: > U.S. deaths increase most years, so some annual rise in fatalities is expected. But the 2020 numbers amount to a jump of about 15%, and could go higher once all the deaths from this month are counted. > That would mark the largest single-year percentage leap since 1918, when tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers died in World War I and hundreds of thousands of Americans died in a flu pandemic. Deaths rose 46% that year, compared with 1917.
- khuey 6y ago
  And "Deaths usually rise by about 20,000 to 50,000 each year, mainly due to the nation’s aging, and growing, population."
- tinalumfoil 6y ago
  It walks back the significance of the title a bit, but that's different than addressing it. I'm not saying it's wrong, but I would expect far larger number of souls to die from one year to the next even if nothing significant occurred.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
twblalock 6y ago
3.2 million (the number from the article) is is 400k more than last year. The latest Covid toll in the NYT tracker is 322,839, and all of those deaths were in 2020. So, there is a gap of 77-78k. Obviously there could be some conceivable increase in other kinds of death for unrelated reasons, but not that much.
- will_pseudonym 6y ago
  That also would be reflecting a significant (assumed-- possibly non-existent--see twblalock's reply below) reduction in the number of car crash fatalities we'd normally have if lockdowns weren't going on (There were 38,800 total in the US in 2019 [0]). But data seems to be showing increased deaths due to overdoses & suicides due to those lockdowns, so it's hard to tell. > Synthetic opioids (primarily illicitly manufactured fentanyl) appear to be the primary driver of the increases in overdose deaths, increasing 38.4 percent from the 12-month period leading up to June 2019 compared with the 12-month period leading up to May 2020. [1] > Compared to the last three years (2017-2019), the number of suicide deaths was lower than average during the initial phase of the pandemic but, starting in July 2020, exceeded the past trend. The source of the increase was mainly female suicides, whose numbers increased by approximately 70% in October 2020. Suicides by young women (less than 40 years of age) almost doubled in October, with a 95.58% increase, compared to the same month in the past three years. The number of suicides among students was also notably higher in August and September 2020 than the corresponding numbers of past years. Our survey data indicated that the status of mental health among young women has been deteriorating in recent months, and also that young female workers were more likely than any other group to have experienced a job or income loss, suggesting adverse economic conditions surrounding some of these individuals. [2] [0] https://www.nsc.org/road-safety/safety-topics/fatality-estimates https://www.nsc.org/road-safety/safety-topics/fatality-estim... [1] https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p1218-overdose-deaths-covid-19.html https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p1218-overdose-death... [2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/12/05/2020.10.06.20207530.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/12/05/202...
  - twblalock 6y ago
    We don't have full car crash fatality numbers for 2020 yet, but during the first 6 months of the year, which is when the strictest lockdowns were in effect, deaths were actually up 1% compared to 2019: https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/overview/preliminary-estimates/ https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/overview/prelimina... You can also see monthly estimates here from the same source: https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/overview/preliminary-monthly-estimates/ https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/overview/prelimina.... Overall, 2020 is not stacking up to be a better year for car accident deaths than 2019 was -- certainly not enough to make a big difference in the total number of deaths per year in the US.

MattGaiser 6y ago

The key part is the "by far." The article addresses this in the first few paragraphs: > U.S. deaths increase most years, so some annual rise in fatalities is expected. But the 2020 numbers amount to a jump of about 15%, and could go higher once all the deaths from this month are counted. > That would mark the largest single-year percentage leap since 1918, when tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers died in World War I and hundreds of thousands of Americans died in a flu pandemic. Deaths rose 46% that year, compared with 1917.

khuey 6y ago
And "Deaths usually rise by about 20,000 to 50,000 each year, mainly due to the nation’s aging, and growing, population."
tinalumfoil 6y ago
It walks back the significance of the title a bit, but that's different than addressing it. I'm not saying it's wrong, but I would expect far larger number of souls to die from one year to the next even if nothing significant occurred.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

twblalock 6y ago

3.2 million (the number from the article) is is 400k more than last year. The latest Covid toll in the NYT tracker is 322,839, and all of those deaths were in 2020. So, there is a gap of 77-78k. Obviously there could be some conceivable increase in other kinds of death for unrelated reasons, but not that much.

will_pseudonym 6y ago
That also would be reflecting a significant (assumed-- possibly non-existent--see twblalock's reply below) reduction in the number of car crash fatalities we'd normally have if lockdowns weren't going on (There were 38,800 total in the US in 2019 [0]). But data seems to be showing increased deaths due to overdoses & suicides due to those lockdowns, so it's hard to tell. > Synthetic opioids (primarily illicitly manufactured fentanyl) appear to be the primary driver of the increases in overdose deaths, increasing 38.4 percent from the 12-month period leading up to June 2019 compared with the 12-month period leading up to May 2020. [1] > Compared to the last three years (2017-2019), the number of suicide deaths was lower than average during the initial phase of the pandemic but, starting in July 2020, exceeded the past trend. The source of the increase was mainly female suicides, whose numbers increased by approximately 70% in October 2020. Suicides by young women (less than 40 years of age) almost doubled in October, with a 95.58% increase, compared to the same month in the past three years. The number of suicides among students was also notably higher in August and September 2020 than the corresponding numbers of past years. Our survey data indicated that the status of mental health among young women has been deteriorating in recent months, and also that young female workers were more likely than any other group to have experienced a job or income loss, suggesting adverse economic conditions surrounding some of these individuals. [2] [0] https://www.nsc.org/road-safety/safety-topics/fatality-estimates https://www.nsc.org/road-safety/safety-topics/fatality-estim... [1] https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p1218-overdose-deaths-covid-19.html https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p1218-overdose-death... [2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/12/05/2020.10.06.20207530.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/12/05/202...
- twblalock 6y ago
  We don't have full car crash fatality numbers for 2020 yet, but during the first 6 months of the year, which is when the strictest lockdowns were in effect, deaths were actually up 1% compared to 2019: https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/overview/preliminary-estimates/ https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/overview/prelimina... You can also see monthly estimates here from the same source: https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/overview/preliminary-monthly-estimates/ https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/overview/prelimina.... Overall, 2020 is not stacking up to be a better year for car accident deaths than 2019 was -- certainly not enough to make a big difference in the total number of deaths per year in the US.