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The unspoken assertion is that we want a high birth rate. Why do we want a high birth rate?
by minikites 6y ago
The unspoken assertion is that we want a high birth rate. Why do we want a high birth rate?
- toomuchtodo 6y ago> Why do we want a high birth rate? Economic pyramid scheme, such as entitlements and economic growth mandates that rely on it. A lower birth rate is preferred (less resource contention and impact on the ecosystems we rely on for survival), we should be driving it down with economic incentives (faster than it’s falling naturally). It happens naturally as women are empowered and educated (per Our World In Data [1]). [1] https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-change-in-the-number-of-children-women-have https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-...
- giantg2 6y agoI pretty much agree. What would be an example be of an economic policy that would maintain stability while bringing the birth rate down below the replacement rate?
- toomuchtodo 6y agoDirect cash transfers to those who opt out of having children voluntarily (as their opt out has value they should be compensated for), while accepting that more tax revenue will be needed to support entitlements during the population decline curve. We’re in a sort of resource debt and will end up having to pay it back, balancing gdp cost with quality of life of those here now who will eventually age out. Can’t grow forever in a physical system with constraints.
- AnthonyMouse 6y agoYou obviously don't need to pay people to not have kids because the fertility rate is already below the population replacement rate. The hard question would be how to maintain the existing programs that provide social assistance to the elderly without a larger population of working people to pay the taxes to fund them. The existing solution is to run preposterously large deficits every year, which seems problematic/unsustainable.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago> The hard question would be how to maintain the existing programs that provide social assistance to the elderly without a larger population of working people to pay the taxes to fund them. The existing solution is to run preposterously large deficits every year, which seems problematic/unsustainable. This boils down to “how much GDP are you willing to burn to keep the elderly cohort comfortable.” How each country handles this demonstrates their ingenuity and character. Can you be both compassionate and efficient? I think so.
- AnthonyMouse 6y agoUnfortunately in a democracy it also demonstrates how large a percentage of likely voters are elderly, which also seems like it could cause serious problems during that sort of demographic shift. (Notice that almost everywhere, people over 65 get a vote but people under ~18 don't.)
- giantg2 6y agoWho was that Scottish economist that had a famous quote about something like once the citizens in a democracy realize they have the keys to the treasury they grant themselves services/money?
- dragonwriter 6y agoEconomists have enough trouble trying to predict economic behavior, they probably should be more restrained when branching out of their field into predictive political science.
- giantg2 6y agoEconomists study many things other than "the economy". Quite often they are involved in political or policy studies because many systems act as an economy.
- giantg2 6y ago"Can’t grow forever in a physical system with constraints." Agreed. But I think any economic system with a shrinking population will be disruptive. Like those payments to people not having kids will result in decreased GDP, need increased taxes (we already do), and see large parts of industry shut down because of the decrease in consumption. Our whole system is consumption based.
- giantg2 6y agoBecause our entire capitalist economic system is built on consumption, which is largely reliant on the birth rate being above the replacement rate (2.1). This is especially important for some sectors like durable consumer goods, housing, etc.
- giantg2 6y agoWhy is this downvoted?
- aklemm 6y agoGood question. The root of all of this is human population. Let's get real and talk about it.
- giantg2 6y agoHuman population would be why we don't want a high birth rate. The parent comment was asking why we do want a high birth rate. Increase in economic output from population growth in a consumer based economy is a reason that economists would give and that politicians would use to support the policies promoting a higher birth rate. I think we probably could eliminate most policies promoting population growth. Of course some of those could meet some ethical concerns. If we start talking about policies to limit population growth, that could get even trickier.
- Dylan16807 6y agoFor one, the word "above" is unfounded. At or slightly below works too. You can have a consumption-based economy where the population drops 1% per decade just fine. But more than that, even the least capitalist economy is going to have trouble if the ratio of young healthy workers drops too low.
- giantg2 6y agoI agree it's mostly about the ratio of workers. It can be below for relatively short periods (a few generations maybe). But if it stays below for long periods of time, you will run into some structural issues. Like the young workers you mentioned, tax burdens, some consumer durable industries, and possibly housing/real estate.
- jimbob45 6y agoBecause we don’t want to be Japan, which is about to become an expansion state of immigrants since their birth rate can’t support their future population. Africa has a high birth rate. Should we crack down on that? Or are you just saying it’s a problem when rich, low-crime nations have high birth rates?
- gowld 6y agoWhat's wrong with Japan?
- minikites 6y ago>an expansion state of immigrants Why is immigration bad?
- jimbob45 6y agohttps://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/style/longterm/books/chap1/againsti.htm https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/style/longterm/books/c... Roy Beck here is far more articulate than I could be in the 6.5 minutes I have to type this answer.
- minikites 6y ago>The culture--and even language--of many local communities has been transformed against the wishes of their native inhabitants >Numerous organized crime syndicates headquartered in the new immigrants' home countries have gained solid beachheads of operations. I thought the answer would be "racism", it usually is.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- Enginerrrd 6y agoDemographics can explain a lot of ills in a society. A nice pyramid is pretty good and stable. When things get too top heavy (low birth rate compared to previous generations) or too bottom heavy (high birth rate compared to previous generations), serious but predictable problems almost always occur.