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How long does the "game of musical chairs" have to go on before you consider the possibility that this isn't one? It has been a decade since BTC was launched.

slg 6y ago
Bernie Madoff operated his "game of musical chairs" for over twice that period of time. If age is the only argument you have to justify Bitcoin's value, we still have a while to go.
- gruez 6y ago
  It's much easier to pull off a scam if have total control over it. Is there some mastermind behind the bitcoin scam?
  - slg 6y ago
    Calling Bitcoin a "game of musical chairs" doesn't necessarily imply it is a scam. It simply implies that the music will eventually stop and leave someone with huge loses. There doesn't need to be a mastermind behind that. The length of time the music has been playing shouldn't be any solace to anyone participating if they can't come up with other legitimate reasons why a $20k value is valid.
    - silentsea90 6y ago
      There isn't a dearth of information online on why the value is valid. Can you present what you find unconvincing?
      - slg 6y ago
        I'm not making any judgement one way or another on whether the value is valid. I am simply calling out a bad argument that supports that the value is valid. The comment I originally replied was basically saying we know it has real value because people have valued it for a decade. That isn't a convincing reason.
        silentsea90 6y ago
        True, the decade argument isn't fool proof. For non mathematically provable problems (is X a scam? as opposed to 1+1==2?), I find it easier to reason on the basis of ML like features with their respective weights. The longevity of sustained BTC valuation is just one feature here, not sufficient on its own.
im3w1l 6y ago
Sooner or later bitcoin must stabilize. Either because it goes to zero or because it starts tracking inflation with volatility way down. That's when we will know.
- silentsea90 6y ago
  Yep, when the market cap balloons to be much larger, we should expect lower volatility. Still room to grow
baron_harkonnen 6y ago
I'll consider that this isn't a game of musical chairs as soon as a non-trivial amount of BTC is used for anything other than speculation. We've been in a massive credit bubble for well over a decade, we saw it wiggle a bit in 2008, but we're still deep in it. Just because these insane illusions are able to maintain themselves for absurdly long periods of time doesn't make them real. What we've seen is capital desperately seeking to find a new source of value to exploit, perpetually failing to do so and getting ever more delirious in its search.
- johnpaulkiser 6y ago
  With the news around PH not accepting credit cards anymore I'm curious to see how much revenue they generate through bitcoin in the next quarter. I imagine their revenue will drop substantially.
- silentsea90 6y ago
  One man's speculation is another's investment. We've also seen a massive liquidity pump (aka money printer), so it isn't just credit. Unlike stocks that have to justify valuations with financial metrics, BTC has no such obligations and remains a peg against the massive liquidity influx.

slg 6y ago

Bernie Madoff operated his "game of musical chairs" for over twice that period of time. If age is the only argument you have to justify Bitcoin's value, we still have a while to go.

gruez 6y ago
It's much easier to pull off a scam if have total control over it. Is there some mastermind behind the bitcoin scam?
- slg 6y ago
  Calling Bitcoin a "game of musical chairs" doesn't necessarily imply it is a scam. It simply implies that the music will eventually stop and leave someone with huge loses. There doesn't need to be a mastermind behind that. The length of time the music has been playing shouldn't be any solace to anyone participating if they can't come up with other legitimate reasons why a $20k value is valid.
  - silentsea90 6y ago
    There isn't a dearth of information online on why the value is valid. Can you present what you find unconvincing?
    - slg 6y ago
      I'm not making any judgement one way or another on whether the value is valid. I am simply calling out a bad argument that supports that the value is valid. The comment I originally replied was basically saying we know it has real value because people have valued it for a decade. That isn't a convincing reason.
      - silentsea90 6y ago
        True, the decade argument isn't fool proof. For non mathematically provable problems (is X a scam? as opposed to 1+1==2?), I find it easier to reason on the basis of ML like features with their respective weights. The longevity of sustained BTC valuation is just one feature here, not sufficient on its own.

im3w1l 6y ago

Sooner or later bitcoin must stabilize. Either because it goes to zero or because it starts tracking inflation with volatility way down. That's when we will know.

silentsea90 6y ago
Yep, when the market cap balloons to be much larger, we should expect lower volatility. Still room to grow

baron_harkonnen 6y ago

I'll consider that this isn't a game of musical chairs as soon as a non-trivial amount of BTC is used for anything other than speculation. We've been in a massive credit bubble for well over a decade, we saw it wiggle a bit in 2008, but we're still deep in it. Just because these insane illusions are able to maintain themselves for absurdly long periods of time doesn't make them real. What we've seen is capital desperately seeking to find a new source of value to exploit, perpetually failing to do so and getting ever more delirious in its search.

johnpaulkiser 6y ago
With the news around PH not accepting credit cards anymore I'm curious to see how much revenue they generate through bitcoin in the next quarter. I imagine their revenue will drop substantially.
silentsea90 6y ago
One man's speculation is another's investment. We've also seen a massive liquidity pump (aka money printer), so it isn't just credit. Unlike stocks that have to justify valuations with financial metrics, BTC has no such obligations and remains a peg against the massive liquidity influx.