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The other auto makers will make electrics cars and people will buy them. The magic ingredients at Tesla are just not that magic.

by jariel 6y ago

fastball 6y ago
And yet not a single one of them was able to make electric cars attractive enough to buy until Tesla showed them the way.
- brandonmenc 6y ago
  Just like Apple once showed everyone how to mass market a graphical OS, and then...
  - fastball 6y ago
    Apple became one of the largest companies on earth, with a mkt cap of 2T.
    - brandonmenc 6y ago
      Microsoft still exists and has a market cap of over $1.5T, which proves my point. The belief that all the other established automakers won't catch up is absurd.
      - fastball 6y ago
        Tesla has a proven track record of innovation and investing heavily in the future. Most other automakers... not so much.
- Xixi 6y ago
  Being first is great if you are building a social network. But why would it matter when buying a car? Sure, Tesla showed that it was possible (and Nissan with the Leaf), but being affordable matters more than being first. In any case, infrastructure matters even more for EVs. I was in the market for an EV car in Japan, and ended up buying an ICE car, with the intent to switch in 5~10 years when the infrastructure catches up. I live in a brand new building and it's not even equipped for EVs! Crazy. The only EV owners I know have houses. I hope things will change thanks to the new Suga administration that seems somewhat more forward thinking than the Abe one in these matters... We will see.
  - fastball 6y ago
    All of your points just seem to support Tesla. It's not that Tesla was first, it's that they are seriously ahead, and it takes a lot to catch up, and by the time others do, their market share will have been cannibalized. - Tesla battery production is overtaking the rest of the world combined. For electric cars you need batteries, and Tesla has them. Everyone else is at a minimum years behind in this regard. - Tesla's prices keep going down, while some of the most competitive electric cars being released besides Teslas (Porsche Taycan for instance) are more than the price point TSLA was at 10 years ago. - Tesla has the most extensive charging infrastructure of anyone, period.
    - vel0city 6y ago
      Tesla might have one of the largest single charging network, but by default in the US they only support their own proprietary chargers. I see far more non-Tesla chargers around in my area. They're different brands, but they all use the same standardized plug. Just go to any site showing chargers in your area. Turn on just the Tesla and Supercharger plugs. Then turn on just the J1772 and CCS plugs. See which one looks to be the bigger network. https://www.plugshare.com/ https://www.plugshare.com/
      - fastball 6y ago
        Yes, but you can plug your Tesla into non-Tesla chargers if you buy an adapter. Doesn't work the other way around (and for many of those 3rd party networks they have the Tesla connector anyway AFAIK).
        vel0city 6y ago
        True, Teslas these days come with a J1772 to Tesla AC adapter. IIRC they're not compatible with CCS but CCS chargers are more rare than J1772 at the moment. However I often see only J1772 plugs or only Tesla plugs around me. It's rare for places to have both options. Tesla was forced to make CCS compatible versions in Germany IIRC, so they could adopt the industry standard globally but instead choose to continue pushing vendor lock-in instead of open standards. Either way that doesn't change the fact Tesla might be the single biggest network of chargers out there, but they're not the most common chargers out there. The majority of chargers out there will not work on a Tesla without an adapter. If having the largest network of charging systems was really a long term play of theirs, you'd think they'd move to actually supporting the plugs which will probably be on ultimately the majority of cars on the road and take money from everyone instead of only customers of their cars. I question the long term importance of their charging network as more and more J1772/CCS cars get on the market and more J1772/CCS continue coming online. Imagine of Ford and Exxon had some exclusive pump and port agreement where Exxon stations could only sell gas to Ford cars but Ford gave adapters to allow Ford owners to fill anywhere, albeit with a bit more work. Sounds pretty dumb, right?
- marticode 6y ago
  The Renault Zoe has been out since 2012 and still frequently tops the European EV sales chart, ahead of the Model 3.
- jariel 6y ago
  "And yet not a single one of them was able to make electric cars attractive enough to buy until Tesla showed them the way." First, that's only partly true i.e. a matter of timing. Second, it doesn't really matter though. They will sell cars and trucks that are much the same as today, that people want, but are electric.
nickik 6y ago
Go look up how the global battery supply chain works.

The other auto makers will make electrics cars and people will buy them. The magic ingredients at Tesla are just not that magic.

by jariel 6y ago

The other auto makers will make electrics cars and people will buy them. The magic ingredients at Tesla are just not that magic.

fastball 6y ago

And yet not a single one of them was able to make electric cars attractive enough to buy until Tesla showed them the way.

brandonmenc 6y ago
Just like Apple once showed everyone how to mass market a graphical OS, and then...
- fastball 6y ago
  Apple became one of the largest companies on earth, with a mkt cap of 2T.
  - brandonmenc 6y ago
    Microsoft still exists and has a market cap of over $1.5T, which proves my point. The belief that all the other established automakers won't catch up is absurd.
    - fastball 6y ago
      Tesla has a proven track record of innovation and investing heavily in the future. Most other automakers... not so much.
Xixi 6y ago
Being first is great if you are building a social network. But why would it matter when buying a car? Sure, Tesla showed that it was possible (and Nissan with the Leaf), but being affordable matters more than being first. In any case, infrastructure matters even more for EVs. I was in the market for an EV car in Japan, and ended up buying an ICE car, with the intent to switch in 5~10 years when the infrastructure catches up. I live in a brand new building and it's not even equipped for EVs! Crazy. The only EV owners I know have houses. I hope things will change thanks to the new Suga administration that seems somewhat more forward thinking than the Abe one in these matters... We will see.
- fastball 6y ago
  All of your points just seem to support Tesla. It's not that Tesla was first, it's that they are seriously ahead, and it takes a lot to catch up, and by the time others do, their market share will have been cannibalized. - Tesla battery production is overtaking the rest of the world combined. For electric cars you need batteries, and Tesla has them. Everyone else is at a minimum years behind in this regard. - Tesla's prices keep going down, while some of the most competitive electric cars being released besides Teslas (Porsche Taycan for instance) are more than the price point TSLA was at 10 years ago. - Tesla has the most extensive charging infrastructure of anyone, period.
  - vel0city 6y ago
    Tesla might have one of the largest single charging network, but by default in the US they only support their own proprietary chargers. I see far more non-Tesla chargers around in my area. They're different brands, but they all use the same standardized plug. Just go to any site showing chargers in your area. Turn on just the Tesla and Supercharger plugs. Then turn on just the J1772 and CCS plugs. See which one looks to be the bigger network. https://www.plugshare.com/ https://www.plugshare.com/
    - fastball 6y ago
      Yes, but you can plug your Tesla into non-Tesla chargers if you buy an adapter. Doesn't work the other way around (and for many of those 3rd party networks they have the Tesla connector anyway AFAIK).
      - vel0city 6y ago
        True, Teslas these days come with a J1772 to Tesla AC adapter. IIRC they're not compatible with CCS but CCS chargers are more rare than J1772 at the moment. However I often see only J1772 plugs or only Tesla plugs around me. It's rare for places to have both options. Tesla was forced to make CCS compatible versions in Germany IIRC, so they could adopt the industry standard globally but instead choose to continue pushing vendor lock-in instead of open standards. Either way that doesn't change the fact Tesla might be the single biggest network of chargers out there, but they're not the most common chargers out there. The majority of chargers out there will not work on a Tesla without an adapter. If having the largest network of charging systems was really a long term play of theirs, you'd think they'd move to actually supporting the plugs which will probably be on ultimately the majority of cars on the road and take money from everyone instead of only customers of their cars. I question the long term importance of their charging network as more and more J1772/CCS cars get on the market and more J1772/CCS continue coming online. Imagine of Ford and Exxon had some exclusive pump and port agreement where Exxon stations could only sell gas to Ford cars but Ford gave adapters to allow Ford owners to fill anywhere, albeit with a bit more work. Sounds pretty dumb, right?
marticode 6y ago
The Renault Zoe has been out since 2012 and still frequently tops the European EV sales chart, ahead of the Model 3.
jariel 6y ago
"And yet not a single one of them was able to make electric cars attractive enough to buy until Tesla showed them the way." First, that's only partly true i.e. a matter of timing. Second, it doesn't really matter though. They will sell cars and trucks that are much the same as today, that people want, but are electric.

nickik 6y ago

Go look up how the global battery supply chain works.