6 ms·

What happens to Tesla if this works as promised?

by sien 6y ago

refulgentis 6y ago
TL;DR: Tesla has no IP or differentiation available _currently_, and has a billion dollar plant in Buffalo idling with Panasonic completely pulling out, and in 2020, just hitting the demand Musk predicted for 2018, 500K/year. The advantage they have is _at least they're on the road_, but, it's going to be tough even going in as the incumbent against a breakthrough and true differentiator like this - if Elon was 100% sober and on point on Battery Day, they still have a shot of not getting _too_ far behind for 3-5 years. But they'll need to figure out how to get to solid state long term without the associated IP or research. :/ nostradamus at this point, don't take it literally, but seriously: You can imagine they'd start looking like Blackberry - niche success among affluent users, ultimately, a stepping stone to the iPhone that'll revolutionize the industry wide, and hopefully Waymo decides to build 1P cars by 2030 and buys out Tesla for $80 billion.
XorNot 6y ago
Tesla's current insane valuation crashes, and the company probably folds too. They're heavily invested in Li-Ion's production chain, and this would essentially go right around that. It's always seemed clear to me that what would kill Tesla dead is Toyota moving into EVs in a big way - the reputation alone would carry them for a good long while.
- pfarnsworth 6y ago
  Tesla has $20B warchest, I think they'll be fine.
- dhnajsjdnd 6y ago
  Tesla’s valuation, while insane, has allowed them to raise a ton of cash. So even if the stock tanks, the company is unlikely to go anywhere.
acomjean 6y ago
It would be bad. But honestly Battery Tech to me is "I'll believe it when I see it". Lots of tech isn't a durable or as manufacturable as companies hope. Lab->product is difficult.
- Melting_Harps 6y ago
  > What happens to Tesla if this works as promised? That they finally fulfilled a big part of their mission statement and got the biggest (single) Auto Manufacture to develop the battery tech to pivot their entire lineup to EV. > It would be bad. But honestly Battery Tech to me is "I'll believe it when I see it". Agreed. GM invested in the Badger to compete with the Cybertruck only for everything to fall apart at the last minute, I want to see this tech proven and on the road in the 100s of thousand of Camrys and Corollas they sell a year before I think it can pose a threat to Tesla. But maybe a merger happens? The factory in Fremont used to be a Toyota factory after all. And Toyota's CEO has a 'real chef and kitchen' [0] and has its sight on them. 0: https://electrek.co/2020/11/06/toyota-ceo-goes-after-tesla-elon-musk-strange-cooking-analogy/ https://electrek.co/2020/11/06/toyota-ceo-goes-after-tesla-e...
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    > That they finally fulfilled a big part of their mission statement and got the biggest (single) Auto Manufacture to develop the battery tech to pivot their entire lineup to EV. Toyota has shipped fifteen million battery-powered cars and they started two decades before Tesla. I seriously doubt they were adrift until Tesla finally inspired them.
    - kjksf 6y ago
      Toyota shipped "ICE engine powered cars, supplemented by a tiny electric battery". When they did fully electric RAV4 EV, they got the batteries from, wait for it, Tesla. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV Per Musk, when original RAV4 EV contract expired, Toyota wanted more batteries but Tesla refused because at the time they were battery limited even for their own cars and the planned Model 3. Toyota apparently was incapable of doing the battery themselves so they terminated RAV4 EV production.
clouddrover 6y ago
They will have to buy solid-state batteries from someone else. Volkswagen will be getting their solid-state batteries from QuantumScape: https://electrek.co/2020/12/08/tesla-co-founder-jb-straubel-quantumscape-new-fast-charging-battery-major-breakthrough/ https://electrek.co/2020/12/08/tesla-co-founder-jb-straubel-... BMW will be getting their solid-state batteries from Solid Power: https://insideevs.com/news/438664/solid-power-all-solid-state-batteries-2021/ https://insideevs.com/news/438664/solid-power-all-solid-stat...
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  QuantumScape doesn’t go into mass production for VW for another 3-4 years, SolidPower and BMW 5-6 years (from your links). That’s a long time to catch up to Tesla, who can pull billions from capital markets on a whim.
  - clouddrover 6y ago
    Yes, neither do Toyota's. Toyota is just showing them next year in conjunction with the Olympics.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
remontoire 6y ago
Not much if Toyota can't compete on price. Range has not been an issue since 2015, and the marginal increase in consumer demand won't go up much if a $150k 500 mile electric hits the market. The real issue for electric is that a 300 mile electric costs more than $35k because the world wide battery production capacity is limited. If solid state batteries are easier to produce and the price comes down faster than lithium ion then there might be a crossover point by 2030. Until then, this probably means cooler high end sports cars (formula E?)
S_A_P 6y ago
No word on energy density or other metrics other than charge time. Tesla is also working on solid state batteries as well.
natch 6y ago
Vaporware often claims to work better than shipping products. This is just the vaporware of the week. Next week there will be another “Tesla killer.” Even if true, Toyota would still have to up its game on a number of other fronts.
elihu 6y ago
Probably they'll keep making cars, and people will keep buying them. In the long run, maybe they stop being relevant and turn into just another car company. In the short run, there just isn't enough battery manufacturing capacity for everyone who wants one to buy an electric car with two or three hundred plus miles of range. Toyota can fill some of that demand but probably not all of it.

What happens to Tesla if this works as promised?

by sien 6y ago

What happens to Tesla if this works as promised?

TL;DR: Tesla has no IP or differentiation available _currently_, and has a billion dollar plant in Buffalo idling with Panasonic completely pulling out, and in 2020, just hitting the demand Musk predicted for 2018, 500K/year. The advantage they have is _at least they're on the road_, but, it's going to be tough even going in as the incumbent against a breakthrough and true differentiator like this - if Elon was 100% sober and on point on Battery Day, they still have a shot of not getting _too_ far behind for 3-5 years. But they'll need to figure out how to get to solid state long term without the associated IP or research. :/ nostradamus at this point, don't take it literally, but seriously: You can imagine they'd start looking like Blackberry - niche success among affluent users, ultimately, a stepping stone to the iPhone that'll revolutionize the industry wide, and hopefully Waymo decides to build 1P cars by 2030 and buys out Tesla for $80 billion.

XorNot 6y ago

Tesla's current insane valuation crashes, and the company probably folds too. They're heavily invested in Li-Ion's production chain, and this would essentially go right around that. It's always seemed clear to me that what would kill Tesla dead is Toyota moving into EVs in a big way - the reputation alone would carry them for a good long while.

pfarnsworth 6y ago
Tesla has $20B warchest, I think they'll be fine.
dhnajsjdnd 6y ago
Tesla’s valuation, while insane, has allowed them to raise a ton of cash. So even if the stock tanks, the company is unlikely to go anywhere.

acomjean 6y ago

It would be bad. But honestly Battery Tech to me is "I'll believe it when I see it". Lots of tech isn't a durable or as manufacturable as companies hope. Lab->product is difficult.

Melting_Harps 6y ago
> What happens to Tesla if this works as promised? That they finally fulfilled a big part of their mission statement and got the biggest (single) Auto Manufacture to develop the battery tech to pivot their entire lineup to EV. > It would be bad. But honestly Battery Tech to me is "I'll believe it when I see it". Agreed. GM invested in the Badger to compete with the Cybertruck only for everything to fall apart at the last minute, I want to see this tech proven and on the road in the 100s of thousand of Camrys and Corollas they sell a year before I think it can pose a threat to Tesla. But maybe a merger happens? The factory in Fremont used to be a Toyota factory after all. And Toyota's CEO has a 'real chef and kitchen' [0] and has its sight on them. 0: https://electrek.co/2020/11/06/toyota-ceo-goes-after-tesla-elon-musk-strange-cooking-analogy/ https://electrek.co/2020/11/06/toyota-ceo-goes-after-tesla-e...
- jeffbee 6y ago
  > That they finally fulfilled a big part of their mission statement and got the biggest (single) Auto Manufacture to develop the battery tech to pivot their entire lineup to EV. Toyota has shipped fifteen million battery-powered cars and they started two decades before Tesla. I seriously doubt they were adrift until Tesla finally inspired them.
  - kjksf 6y ago
    Toyota shipped "ICE engine powered cars, supplemented by a tiny electric battery". When they did fully electric RAV4 EV, they got the batteries from, wait for it, Tesla. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV Per Musk, when original RAV4 EV contract expired, Toyota wanted more batteries but Tesla refused because at the time they were battery limited even for their own cars and the planned Model 3. Toyota apparently was incapable of doing the battery themselves so they terminated RAV4 EV production.

clouddrover 6y ago

They will have to buy solid-state batteries from someone else. Volkswagen will be getting their solid-state batteries from QuantumScape: https://electrek.co/2020/12/08/tesla-co-founder-jb-straubel-quantumscape-new-fast-charging-battery-major-breakthrough/ https://electrek.co/2020/12/08/tesla-co-founder-jb-straubel-... BMW will be getting their solid-state batteries from Solid Power: https://insideevs.com/news/438664/solid-power-all-solid-state-batteries-2021/ https://insideevs.com/news/438664/solid-power-all-solid-stat...

toomuchtodo 6y ago
QuantumScape doesn’t go into mass production for VW for another 3-4 years, SolidPower and BMW 5-6 years (from your links). That’s a long time to catch up to Tesla, who can pull billions from capital markets on a whim.
- clouddrover 6y ago
  Yes, neither do Toyota's. Toyota is just showing them next year in conjunction with the Olympics.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]

remontoire 6y ago

Not much if Toyota can't compete on price. Range has not been an issue since 2015, and the marginal increase in consumer demand won't go up much if a $150k 500 mile electric hits the market. The real issue for electric is that a 300 mile electric costs more than $35k because the world wide battery production capacity is limited. If solid state batteries are easier to produce and the price comes down faster than lithium ion then there might be a crossover point by 2030. Until then, this probably means cooler high end sports cars (formula E?)

S_A_P 6y ago

No word on energy density or other metrics other than charge time. Tesla is also working on solid state batteries as well.

natch 6y ago

Vaporware often claims to work better than shipping products. This is just the vaporware of the week. Next week there will be another “Tesla killer.” Even if true, Toyota would still have to up its game on a number of other fronts.

elihu 6y ago

Probably they'll keep making cars, and people will keep buying them. In the long run, maybe they stop being relevant and turn into just another car company. In the short run, there just isn't enough battery manufacturing capacity for everyone who wants one to buy an electric car with two or three hundred plus miles of range. Toyota can fill some of that demand but probably not all of it.