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Every single paper on IFR estimation seems to mostly ignore that poorer countries without infrastructure aren't capable of and are not capturing a large fractio

Every single paper on IFR estimation seems to mostly ignore that poorer countries without infrastructure aren't capable of and are not capturing a large fraction of the covid-19 caused deaths. They all show a clear trend of lower IFR in places like Kenya, Peru, etc and significantly higher IFR in places like Switzerland, England, France, Germany, etc. It's not hard to figure out which is closer to reality. The only odd-man out is China, and that's obviously because China kicked out all journalists and started faking numbers back in March and have continued to report falsehoods since.

s1artibartfast 6y ago
I’m not sure that they ignore anything. Most poorer countries have a younger population, and we know that mortality goes up exponentially with age. This is why the IFR is 1/10,000 for someone in their 30s and 1/10 for someone in their 80s
- nradov 6y ago
  Yes that's a factor. On average poorer countries also tend to have lower rates of the co-morbid conditions which increase COVID-19 risk such as obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and vitamin D deficiency.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
rectang 6y ago
IFR = "Infection Fatality Ratio" (for those who were unfamiliar with the acronym like me).
- tartoran 6y ago
  I could guess form the text but was about to look it up so thanks for disambiguating the term here. Wish people would add in parens the meaning of the acronym they use at the first occurence in the text then refer to the acronym only.
  - guenthert 6y ago
    > Wish people would add in parens the meaning of the acronym they use at the first occurence I find that style utterly patronizing. For uncommon abbreviations it would be better to introduce them in parenthesis after their meaning is spelled out on first use. The reader gains by looking-up common abbreviations. nature publishes research papers. Those tend to address primarily fellow researchers familiar with the terms.
    - rectang 6y ago
      HN is a generalist forum. People who use specialized acronyms in threads here inconvenience the generalist HN user base. Just as we would expect researchers writing for specialist journals to write for their specialist audience, we should expect HN posters to write for the generalist HN audience.
asadkn 6y ago
It might not entirely be incorrect either. Very few deaths are officially reported but the deaths which weren't going to be reported, were of the same subset of people who never tested either, despite symptoms. So it would be safe to assume while both the infected and fatality numbers are way off, they are at least representative. Hence, I believe the IFR isn't incorrect.
aantix 6y ago
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-china-back-to-normal-us-europe-struggle-2020-10 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-china-back-to-no... I thought it was because of the aggressive response in the beginning that China is back to normal?
- hcknwscommenter 6y ago
  You are correct. OP is spreading conspiracy theories.
  - whimsicalism 6y ago
    People are having a hard time swallowing it. There is still a lot of Western hubris in the world, and I say that as a westerner.
bhickey 6y ago
> They all show a clear trend of lower IFR in places like Kenya, Peru, etc and significantly higher IFR in places like Switzerland, England, France, Germany, etc. It's not hard to figure out which is closer to reality. Of course it's hard to figure out! The life expectancy in Kenya is 65 and 83 in Switzerland. It could be that there aren't many octogenarians in Kenya to kill.
screye 6y ago
fatality numbers in general is captured quite well by many countries. The infection numbers are admittedly unreliable. This means that we still get a very valuable signal of deaths per million population and deaths per million in hospitals (weaker for the 2nd one). Testing coverage has the biggest variance accross countries.
vkou 6y ago
Given how quickly the virus spreads, given that China stopped all of its lockdowns in May, and given the nature of exponential growth, if China were lying about its numbers, by this point, they would have tens or hundreds of millions of cases. If that were the case, your Chinese coworker with family back home would have known about their entire extended family getting sick. ... Yet, their extended family is not sick, and life in China goes on as normal. What is the most plausible explanation for this? PS. China's self-reported IFR was ~6%. If they are making up all the numbers, do you think they might have fabricated a lower number?
- whimsicalism 6y ago
  You’re downvoted for the obvious truth, which is that China’s numbers are almost certainly real. People who still don’t get it can’t accept that China has beat us here. If you’ve been there in the last 5 years, I think it is entirely unsurprising that they did.
thebruce87m 6y ago
For Peru at least we have some data that shows their excess mortality is far greater than their official numbers: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking... Data as of Apr 1-Oct 31 Covid 19 Deaths: 34,446 Excess Deaths: 82,076

s1artibartfast 6y ago

I’m not sure that they ignore anything. Most poorer countries have a younger population, and we know that mortality goes up exponentially with age. This is why the IFR is 1/10,000 for someone in their 30s and 1/10 for someone in their 80s

nradov 6y ago
Yes that's a factor. On average poorer countries also tend to have lower rates of the co-morbid conditions which increase COVID-19 risk such as obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and vitamin D deficiency.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

rectang 6y ago

IFR = "Infection Fatality Ratio" (for those who were unfamiliar with the acronym like me).

tartoran 6y ago
I could guess form the text but was about to look it up so thanks for disambiguating the term here. Wish people would add in parens the meaning of the acronym they use at the first occurence in the text then refer to the acronym only.
- guenthert 6y ago
  > Wish people would add in parens the meaning of the acronym they use at the first occurence I find that style utterly patronizing. For uncommon abbreviations it would be better to introduce them in parenthesis after their meaning is spelled out on first use. The reader gains by looking-up common abbreviations. nature publishes research papers. Those tend to address primarily fellow researchers familiar with the terms.
  - rectang 6y ago
    HN is a generalist forum. People who use specialized acronyms in threads here inconvenience the generalist HN user base. Just as we would expect researchers writing for specialist journals to write for their specialist audience, we should expect HN posters to write for the generalist HN audience.

asadkn 6y ago

It might not entirely be incorrect either. Very few deaths are officially reported but the deaths which weren't going to be reported, were of the same subset of people who never tested either, despite symptoms. So it would be safe to assume while both the infected and fatality numbers are way off, they are at least representative. Hence, I believe the IFR isn't incorrect.

aantix 6y ago

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-china-back-to-normal-us-europe-struggle-2020-10 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-china-back-to-no... I thought it was because of the aggressive response in the beginning that China is back to normal?

hcknwscommenter 6y ago
You are correct. OP is spreading conspiracy theories.
- whimsicalism 6y ago
  People are having a hard time swallowing it. There is still a lot of Western hubris in the world, and I say that as a westerner.

bhickey 6y ago

> They all show a clear trend of lower IFR in places like Kenya, Peru, etc and significantly higher IFR in places like Switzerland, England, France, Germany, etc. It's not hard to figure out which is closer to reality. Of course it's hard to figure out! The life expectancy in Kenya is 65 and 83 in Switzerland. It could be that there aren't many octogenarians in Kenya to kill.

screye 6y ago

fatality numbers in general is captured quite well by many countries. The infection numbers are admittedly unreliable. This means that we still get a very valuable signal of deaths per million population and deaths per million in hospitals (weaker for the 2nd one). Testing coverage has the biggest variance accross countries.

vkou 6y ago

Given how quickly the virus spreads, given that China stopped all of its lockdowns in May, and given the nature of exponential growth, if China were lying about its numbers, by this point, they would have tens or hundreds of millions of cases. If that were the case, your Chinese coworker with family back home would have known about their entire extended family getting sick. ... Yet, their extended family is not sick, and life in China goes on as normal. What is the most plausible explanation for this? PS. China's self-reported IFR was ~6%. If they are making up all the numbers, do you think they might have fabricated a lower number?

whimsicalism 6y ago
You’re downvoted for the obvious truth, which is that China’s numbers are almost certainly real. People who still don’t get it can’t accept that China has beat us here. If you’ve been there in the last 5 years, I think it is entirely unsurprising that they did.

thebruce87m 6y ago

For Peru at least we have some data that shows their excess mortality is far greater than their official numbers: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking... Data as of Apr 1-Oct 31 Covid 19 Deaths: 34,446 Excess Deaths: 82,076