40 ms·
> They're building models of the world, and testing and challenging a few of their beliefs at a time, to gradually come closer to the truth. Absolutely. Scienc
by DoctorOetker 6y ago
> They're building models of the world, and testing and challenging a few of their beliefs at a time, to gradually come closer to the truth.
Absolutely. Science is about using mathematics and logic to abductively reason about and tease out underlying facts. In fact I see provaility in science and causation as orthogonal issues:
Consider a stable supplied voltage and a variable voltage divider (potentiometer). Suppose measuring the voltage once has intrinsic RMS voltage noise associated with it. So while we can never prove experimentally the exact value of the voltage at the voltage divider with zero error, we can drive the error arbitrarily low by oversampling, which means repeating the experiment over and over. In the general case we never actually reach the true value, but that doesn't mean "voltage can not be measured". Trying to measure this voltage inappropriately (say outside the reference range of an ADC, or with an ADC with too low a resolution such that the noise is systematically rounded in the same direction doesn't mean it's impossible to measure voltage, just that the measurement attempt is flawed.
Similar with causation. Of course caution is always advised with naive correlation. The problem is not propagation of such caution, but the pretense that no techniques exist to gather evidence of causation, and the omission of such techniques when sharing such a rant.
- Geminidog 6y ago>we can drive the error arbitrarily low by oversampling, which means repeating the experiment over and over. Sure, this operates on the assumption that all potential subsequent experiments that you could have conducted after your final observation also falls within your expected parameters. You did 500 experiments that fit within your hypothesis but the next 10 trillion experiments you didn't do afterwords could have shown wildly different results rendering your 500 experiments as simply "noise." This is a possibility and illustrates the flaw within the scientific method itself, it is however the best that we have, so we use the scientific method and its associated assumptions. Keep in mind the formal result of science has this flaw embedded within the correlation or causation number. However the qualitative conclusion is littered with assumptions. Probably the best way to describe our different view points is optimism vs. pessimism. That's really it. I'm saying it's flawed but it's the best we have, you're saying it's been remarkably successful "so far."