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> The world is not as simple as that one liner suggests. Everyone who sat out of the market since 2011 loudly shouting about a bubble. And the world is not as
by pjmorris 6y ago
> The world is not as simple as that one liner suggests. Everyone who sat out of the market since 2011 loudly shouting about a bubble.
And the world is not as simple as your rejoinder. 2011 came after a crisis unlike anything seen since the 1930's. And the 'fixes' to the economy since then have patched over rather than resolved the debt overhangs that led to the 2008 crisis. The great 'patch' was to print money. But the real economy (the physical universe that the financial universe simulates) still has constraints. Figuring out which one we trip over next is entrail-reading, but to think that constraints are no longer an issue is dangerous.
- woah 6y agoSeems like whatever kind of crisis is in store, the dollar value of shares is probably going to go up either way
- rorykoehler 6y agoThis is my thesis too. If you aren't making great returns when they're printing money like crazy then you are losing money. Real world value of the stock market could be stagnant or even down despite the numbers going up.
- lotsofpulp 6y agoI consider VOO or VTI to be a risk free return for a sufficiently long term horizon since I’m confident the US government will do whatever it takes to prop up those equity values. And if it can’t, then we probably are dealing with bigger problems like societal collapse.
- imtringued 6y ago>but to think that constraints are no longer an issue is dangerous. The fundamental problem is that we are not hitting those constraints. Lots of unemployed or underemployed people mean that inflation won't bit in the short term. Effective policies that put these people to work will cause inflation as usual. Inflation is a good thing in moderation.