6 ms·

This is a surprisingly coherent. I live in San Mateo County. One thing I've noticed is that the cases are not evenly distributed. California has 600/1M new

This is a surprisingly coherent. I live in San Mateo County. One thing I've noticed is that the cases are not evenly distributed. California has 600/1M new cases, vs 1000/M in South Dakota. LA county has 740/1M. San Mateo County has 313/1M. Within San Mateo County, San Carlos is 119/1M, and East Palo Alto is 675/1M. It's incredibly hard to set policy when everything is so different, down to towns with 30K people a few miles apart. Links: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/south-dakota https://covidtracking.com/data/state/south-dakota https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19CasesDashboard_15931020425010/Cases?%3Aembed=y&%3AshowVizHome=no https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19CasesDashboard_1593... https://www.smchealth.org/data-dashboard/cases-city https://www.smchealth.org/data-dashboard/cases-city

cromwellian 6y ago
East Palo Alto and San Jose could be either from pop-density, or from relative # of poor people.
- ivankirigin 6y ago
  And age, race, types of jobs, family structure, trust in authority, education, and probably more. San Carlos is white, rich, and old. East Palo Alto it not.
  - an_opabinia 6y ago
    Of course. The real scandal is how bean counting has failed millions of Californians. Are that many people really eking out an existence so marginal, it has no impact on prices for homes, equities, goods and services? Or is there something wrong with what we’re measuring?
  - babesh 6y ago
    It is dense, multi family housing and having to work at jobs that expose you to other people. It isn’t directly race or age.
    - ketzo 6y ago
      Well, yeah, those are the factors for which race and age (and wealth) serve a pretty direct proxy in the U.S.
      - babesh 6y ago
        It is flawed lens. For instance there are poor Asian subgroups and there are poor in otherwise rich groups.
- sujinge9 6y ago
  Probably both
  - spikels 6y ago
    Nine months into this it would be nice if we had good data on the risk factors of transmission. I know it’s a tricky virus to trace but shouldn’t we have better info on which activities demographics, etc are the most risky by now?
    - jeffbee 6y ago
      We do know the risk factors. It's a respiratory disease that spreads when people who are breathing are near each other. We don't need a random control trial to tell us that practicing with your brass band can spread it. The solution is to stay very far from everyone until the disease is wiped out. Only very intelligent libertarian contrary Americans think we don't have the information we need.
      - s1artibartfast 6y ago
        That is not very helpful advice when you have to manage risk while trying to eat, work, live, and stay healthy. Stats certainly exist on where some of the 16,000+ cases in San Mateo were transmitted.
        jeffbee 6y ago
        Exactly what information do you lack? If you are hungry eat at home. Work at home if possible. Exercise at home. "Live" is too vague to address.
        s1artibartfast 6y ago
        You are substituting instructions for information. I lack information. For example: Has anyone in San Mateo caught covid eating at a restaurant? How many? Has anyone in San Mateo caught covid grocery shopping? How Many? Has anyone in San Mateo Caught covid exercising outside? How many? Has anyone in San Mateo Caught covid at school? How many?
- jacobolus 6y ago
  Depends substantially on how many people have to work face to face with strangers, and how large households are. Everyone living in a multi-generational household with e.g. grocery store clerks is at significantly higher risk than a couple of childless yuppies working from home.
wwweston 6y ago
Aren't the latest California directives attempting to adapt to this at least at the county level by tying restrictions to hospital capacity in each county? https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/12/03/california-health-officials-announce-a-regional-stay-at-home-order-triggered-by-icu-capacity/ https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/12/03/california-health-official...
- teej 6y ago
  Yes, but the other Bay Area counties have chosen to shut down way in advance of that.
  - jacobolus 6y ago
    Other Bay Area counties are seeing numbers skyrocket over the past 6 weeks, and want to act decisively now while they have the best chance to prevent a catastrophic outcome. In SF case counts have been doubling about every 2 weeks; we started from a low baseline (relative to most of the rest of the USA) but another few doublings and we’ll be in huge trouble. The state-level mandates are timed to be reactive instead of proactive; if we assume the restrictions are successful at curbing spread, we should enact them ASAP, before our hospitals are on track to be completely overwhelmed. (For that matter we should have taken strong steps before Thanksgiving weekend.) It is extremely unfortunate that this is hammering small businesses; if the US had responsible federal leadership (if the Senate & White House hadn’t just sat on their hands for 7 months) we could do something about this (fingers crossed for January), but counties and even states have limited ability to provide large-scale relief of the type required. But waiting to impose the same restrictions until the state mandates kick in, if inaction results in cases continuing to rise along their current trajectory, will lead to even larger economic devastation than decisive action a few weeks sooner.
    - jeffbee 6y ago
      If doubling every 2 weeks is your standard, everyone in San Mateo County should stay home. Their case count has more than doubled in the last 1 week, from 137 a week ago to 343 most recently. It was their second-highest case count on record, second to yesterday which was 400 cases.
shostack 6y ago
I wonder how much those differences in close areas matter because of people traveling locally for work, coming into contact with people from other areas, etc.

cromwellian 6y ago

East Palo Alto and San Jose could be either from pop-density, or from relative # of poor people.

ivankirigin 6y ago
And age, race, types of jobs, family structure, trust in authority, education, and probably more. San Carlos is white, rich, and old. East Palo Alto it not.
- an_opabinia 6y ago
  Of course. The real scandal is how bean counting has failed millions of Californians. Are that many people really eking out an existence so marginal, it has no impact on prices for homes, equities, goods and services? Or is there something wrong with what we’re measuring?
- babesh 6y ago
  It is dense, multi family housing and having to work at jobs that expose you to other people. It isn’t directly race or age.
  - ketzo 6y ago
    Well, yeah, those are the factors for which race and age (and wealth) serve a pretty direct proxy in the U.S.
    - babesh 6y ago
      It is flawed lens. For instance there are poor Asian subgroups and there are poor in otherwise rich groups.
sujinge9 6y ago
Probably both
- spikels 6y ago
  Nine months into this it would be nice if we had good data on the risk factors of transmission. I know it’s a tricky virus to trace but shouldn’t we have better info on which activities demographics, etc are the most risky by now?
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    We do know the risk factors. It's a respiratory disease that spreads when people who are breathing are near each other. We don't need a random control trial to tell us that practicing with your brass band can spread it. The solution is to stay very far from everyone until the disease is wiped out. Only very intelligent libertarian contrary Americans think we don't have the information we need.
    - s1artibartfast 6y ago
      That is not very helpful advice when you have to manage risk while trying to eat, work, live, and stay healthy. Stats certainly exist on where some of the 16,000+ cases in San Mateo were transmitted.
      - jeffbee 6y ago
        Exactly what information do you lack? If you are hungry eat at home. Work at home if possible. Exercise at home. "Live" is too vague to address.
        s1artibartfast 6y ago
        You are substituting instructions for information. I lack information. For example: Has anyone in San Mateo caught covid eating at a restaurant? How many? Has anyone in San Mateo caught covid grocery shopping? How Many? Has anyone in San Mateo Caught covid exercising outside? How many? Has anyone in San Mateo Caught covid at school? How many?
jacobolus 6y ago
Depends substantially on how many people have to work face to face with strangers, and how large households are. Everyone living in a multi-generational household with e.g. grocery store clerks is at significantly higher risk than a couple of childless yuppies working from home.

wwweston 6y ago

Aren't the latest California directives attempting to adapt to this at least at the county level by tying restrictions to hospital capacity in each county? https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/12/03/california-health-officials-announce-a-regional-stay-at-home-order-triggered-by-icu-capacity/ https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/12/03/california-health-official...

teej 6y ago
Yes, but the other Bay Area counties have chosen to shut down way in advance of that.
- jacobolus 6y ago
  Other Bay Area counties are seeing numbers skyrocket over the past 6 weeks, and want to act decisively now while they have the best chance to prevent a catastrophic outcome. In SF case counts have been doubling about every 2 weeks; we started from a low baseline (relative to most of the rest of the USA) but another few doublings and we’ll be in huge trouble. The state-level mandates are timed to be reactive instead of proactive; if we assume the restrictions are successful at curbing spread, we should enact them ASAP, before our hospitals are on track to be completely overwhelmed. (For that matter we should have taken strong steps before Thanksgiving weekend.) It is extremely unfortunate that this is hammering small businesses; if the US had responsible federal leadership (if the Senate & White House hadn’t just sat on their hands for 7 months) we could do something about this (fingers crossed for January), but counties and even states have limited ability to provide large-scale relief of the type required. But waiting to impose the same restrictions until the state mandates kick in, if inaction results in cases continuing to rise along their current trajectory, will lead to even larger economic devastation than decisive action a few weeks sooner.
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    If doubling every 2 weeks is your standard, everyone in San Mateo County should stay home. Their case count has more than doubled in the last 1 week, from 137 a week ago to 343 most recently. It was their second-highest case count on record, second to yesterday which was 400 cases.

shostack 6y ago

I wonder how much those differences in close areas matter because of people traveling locally for work, coming into contact with people from other areas, etc.