3 ms·

If it's not cheaper than overseas shipping or cargo aircraft, it won't work. It's basic economics.

Octoth0rpe 6y ago
That doesn't take into account the speed of delivery. There may be some customer out there that doesn't know when they need something delivered, but once they know, they'd be willing to pay an extravagant amount of money to have whatever it is there in 30 minutes. The most immediate thing I can think of is a bomb, which is pretty much exactly that need :) But there may be other use cases with similar required delivery times.
- kolinko 6y ago
  Amazon Prime Now, but for shipping cars and anywhere on the planet? :)
  - Octoth0rpe 6y ago
    This is SpaceX, they have literally shipped cars _off_ of the planet as well :P
betwixthewires 6y ago
Man, people have been citing "basic economics" at musk for over a decade. You can't break into the US automotive industry with an independent startup, you can't cut launch costs by an order of magnitude, there's no market for a global constellation of LEO networking satellites, you can't double the number of sattelites in orbit in 5 years, the list goes on. I don't bet against Elon Musk anymore. If you've ever paid more for quicker shipping, there's a market for this.
- lukeify 6y ago
  To be fair, SpaceX hasn't cut costs by an order of magnitude. They've made things significantly cheaper, but the list price for a barebones Falcon 9 is about $50-60m, while an Atlas V is around $100-120m.
  - ericd 6y ago
    Well, they’re targeting launching much more mass than F9 for a much lower cost with Starship (<$10M). So not done yet, but it seems like they have a good shot at it. And if they pull off orbital refueling, then they can take those huge amounts of mass to geo and beyond.
    - lukeify 6y ago
      Correct, but that's a forward-looking statement. The comment I was replying to was written in the past-tense.
      - betwixthewires 6y ago
        Yeah, you're right, I put some "haven't quite happened yet" stuff in there, but the point I was making was that there was a time when discounting the man was the rational thing to do, at this point I think he's proven his ability to do what he says he's going to do, and the ones I stretched a little are well on their way to happening.

That doesn't take into account the speed of delivery. There may be some customer out there that doesn't know when they need something delivered, but once they know, they'd be willing to pay an extravagant amount of money to have whatever it is there in 30 minutes. The most immediate thing I can think of is a bomb, which is pretty much exactly that need :) But there may be other use cases with similar required delivery times.

kolinko 6y ago
Amazon Prime Now, but for shipping cars and anywhere on the planet? :)
- Octoth0rpe 6y ago
  This is SpaceX, they have literally shipped cars _off_ of the planet as well :P

betwixthewires 6y ago

Man, people have been citing "basic economics" at musk for over a decade. You can't break into the US automotive industry with an independent startup, you can't cut launch costs by an order of magnitude, there's no market for a global constellation of LEO networking satellites, you can't double the number of sattelites in orbit in 5 years, the list goes on. I don't bet against Elon Musk anymore. If you've ever paid more for quicker shipping, there's a market for this.

lukeify 6y ago
To be fair, SpaceX hasn't cut costs by an order of magnitude. They've made things significantly cheaper, but the list price for a barebones Falcon 9 is about $50-60m, while an Atlas V is around $100-120m.
- ericd 6y ago
  Well, they’re targeting launching much more mass than F9 for a much lower cost with Starship (<$10M). So not done yet, but it seems like they have a good shot at it. And if they pull off orbital refueling, then they can take those huge amounts of mass to geo and beyond.
  - lukeify 6y ago
    Correct, but that's a forward-looking statement. The comment I was replying to was written in the past-tense.
    - betwixthewires 6y ago
      Yeah, you're right, I put some "haven't quite happened yet" stuff in there, but the point I was making was that there was a time when discounting the man was the rational thing to do, at this point I think he's proven his ability to do what he says he's going to do, and the ones I stretched a little are well on their way to happening.