3 ms·

I'm convinced too - somewhere in the near-infinity of space, sometime in the near-infinity of time. But the chances of intersection just seem so staggeringly lo

I'm convinced too - somewhere in the near-infinity of space, sometime in the near-infinity of time. But the chances of intersection just seem so staggeringly low... even if both parties were actively looking! As for evidence: I just needs something as tangible as the covid vaccines... some proof that makes it believable it's not just some company trying to get research dollars. I remember being really excited 25 (25!) years ago when a very intelligent professor I knew convinced me that evidence was plentiful (verified by high-ranking military) but it had to be kept under wraps as not to cause a public panic: they'd dole the information out slowly. That's a tired story now. So I'd just need evidence more than just "trust us, we're high-ranking".

OJFord 6y ago
The denominator is certainly staggeringly large, but to conclude the chance is staggeringly low, don't we need also to know that incidence is relatively-staggeringly low? I don't know if that's (known to be) the case? i.e. time and space can be as large as you like if life's everywhere you look.
postalrat 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox What explanation do you think is most likely to explain the fermi paradox? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#Hypothetical_explanations_for_the_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#Hypothetical_exp...
- andreareina 6y ago
  My guess is that radiated transmissions are to weak to pick up. If I'm reading [1] right it would take 10^21 Watts for a transmission from proxima centauri to reach us with the same rx power as gps signals[2], which are already way below the noise floor. [1] http://gpsinformation.net/main/gpspower.htm http://gpsinformation.net/main/gpspower.htm [2] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=500W+*+%28distance+to+proxima+centauri+%2F+21000km%29%5E2 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=500W+*+%28distance+to+...
- imtringued 6y ago
  Interstellar travel is extremely difficult.
  - postalrat 6y ago
    How long do you think it will be until people get a probe to a nearby star system? 1000 years? 10000 years? Never? I think we will sooner than most people expect. And once we can do that we may also be able to start building a remote factory to build other probes and expand farther. Then it's only a matter of a few million years and we will have expanded to most stars in the Milky Way.
factorialboy 6y ago
Before I can suggest required proof for intersection, let's define what we mean by intersection. Is it: 1. Us finding relics on earth or else where of a long dead alien civilization? 2. Us being monitored by an advanced race of ET? 3. Them living amongst us? 4. Them influencing us, dealing with world governments? I guess each scenario will require different types of proof. I'm not sure how to proceed without defining scope.

OJFord 6y ago

The denominator is certainly staggeringly large, but to conclude the chance is staggeringly low, don't we need also to know that incidence is relatively-staggeringly low? I don't know if that's (known to be) the case? i.e. time and space can be as large as you like if life's everywhere you look.

postalrat 6y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox What explanation do you think is most likely to explain the fermi paradox? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#Hypothetical_explanations_for_the_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#Hypothetical_exp...

andreareina 6y ago
My guess is that radiated transmissions are to weak to pick up. If I'm reading [1] right it would take 10^21 Watts for a transmission from proxima centauri to reach us with the same rx power as gps signals[2], which are already way below the noise floor. [1] http://gpsinformation.net/main/gpspower.htm http://gpsinformation.net/main/gpspower.htm [2] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=500W+*+%28distance+to+proxima+centauri+%2F+21000km%29%5E2 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=500W+*+%28distance+to+...
imtringued 6y ago
Interstellar travel is extremely difficult.
- postalrat 6y ago
  How long do you think it will be until people get a probe to a nearby star system? 1000 years? 10000 years? Never? I think we will sooner than most people expect. And once we can do that we may also be able to start building a remote factory to build other probes and expand farther. Then it's only a matter of a few million years and we will have expanded to most stars in the Milky Way.

factorialboy 6y ago

Before I can suggest required proof for intersection, let's define what we mean by intersection. Is it: 1. Us finding relics on earth or else where of a long dead alien civilization? 2. Us being monitored by an advanced race of ET? 3. Them living amongst us? 4. Them influencing us, dealing with world governments? I guess each scenario will require different types of proof. I'm not sure how to proceed without defining scope.