5 ms·

When this was big in the 2000s, maximum extraction is reached because supply is maximized, not because demand has entered terminal decline.

tharkun__ 6y ago
So are you saying that if you set a target for someone to reach, if he doesn't reach it in exactly the way that you predicted he would, he didn't actually reach the target?
- Supermancho 6y ago
  > So are you saying that if you set a target for someone to reach No > "Peak oil is the year when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline." The maximum rate possible, was not reached. There has been a voluntary reduction in rate. This is not in dispute. The graph suggests a terminal decline in demand, for which you could say there is some form of an expectation (for the most optimistic? viewer), but the prefix condition was not met. Peak oil is not an statement about economics, but about practical conditions that have an economic effect. Re-interpretations withstanding, as mentioned, history has an inherent possibility of increased production in the future which also fails both conditions. There is no coherent interpretation that fits, at this time.
  - tharkun__ 6y ago
    I would kindly suggest that yes you are then. The above is "how you predicted it would be reached". And to be fair how many others probably did and it might have been the original intention of the phrase even. I definitely thought of "peak oil" as the point after which there's just no more deposits we can tap to increase production. History will tell if this was really the "maximum rate" that humanity ever reached. As it will the terminal part of the decline. And maybe this was a local maximum. The article seems to want to predict that this was the global maximum. For now we can't prove either. Even if someone else in another article (like has happened before) predicts peak oil because there are no more known deposits to tap, it doesn't mean it's a global max. New deposits have been found after and were tapped while others hadn't run out yet and it turned out to be a local max. Why we reached the max is left open though. Maybe we reached the max now because this is the point at which demand never goes back up to previous levels, who knows. Still meats the definition. Edited for spelling.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
- pc86 6y ago
  "Peak oil" is a term of art (sort of). It has a precise meaning, which is that as demand continues to increase, supply decreases sharply and suddenly, with very little or almost no warning at all. Price explodes by several multiples more-or-less overnight. Demand hasn't increased, it's decreased. Supply hasn't decreased sharply. Neither condition was met. "We don't need as much oil anymore because of a worldwide pandemic" is certainly an interesting development but we don't just get to call it "peak oil" so that people who were wrong 15 years ago can suddenly feel vindicated.
  - undersuit 6y ago
    I don't know how you can say it has a precise meaning and then you define a meaning different than Wikipedia. Is it precise for you? "It is often confused with oil depletion; however, whereas depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply, peak oil refers to the point of maximum production."
    - ben_w 6y ago
      Sounds to me like one follows the other?
  - mindslight 6y ago
    I agree this is how it was originally defined 15 years ago. But I feel sometime more recently (5-7?) it morphed into the idea that the price of renewables sets a cap on the price of extraction. So rather than the price of oil exploding, demand for it at its regular price point would fall. Now does a year of pandemic slowdown indicate an overarching trend? The article tries to make that point, but crises always bring out the prognosticators.
    - undersuit 6y ago
      Gotta disagree before Peak Oil was the buzzword it was Hubbert Peak Theory and his curves from the 1950s. And while it may not be 15 years ago, some of earliest edits to Peak Oil on Wikipedia from 2007 state: >the core of peak oil theory: peak oil does not mean that we will run out of oil, or even that we will cease to make major oil discoveries, but rather that we will be unable to maintain current levels of oil production. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Peak_oil&diff=992634609&oldid=127757546 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Peak_oil&diff=992...
- jcranmer 6y ago
  The notion of Peak Oil is that it is a situation where crude oil supply is permanently unable to meet demand, and all of the thinking and discussion around it is about how you handle that situation, in terms of ramifications for both suppliers and consumers of oil. What is instead happening is that demand for oil has peaked before supply for oil has peaked. This is the completely opposite situation as the scenario envisioned by Peak Oil. All of those plans you would have been making for Peak Oil are now useless, especially if you are an oil supplier.
  - pmoriarty 6y ago
    "What is instead happening is that demand for oil has peaked before supply for oil has peaked." Demand for oil at the old price level peaked, but I bet if you sold oil for 1/10th or 1/100th of the price, there'd be plenty of demand for it. So what's really changed is the price that people were willing to pay for oil. The demand is still high, but the price people are willing to pay for it is lower than before.
    - mlyle 6y ago
      Yah, that's exactly it. Supply and demand curves describe the supply and demand at given prices. We thought the number of units of oil supplied was going to eventually permanently fall primarily from the supply curve shifting up and to the left. But then the fracking revolution happened, and it looked like maybe introduction of artificial measures to shift the supply curve upwards (carbon taxes) might be required-- to purposely reach peak oil. But now we have this situation where instead the demand curve has shifted rightwards instead... Permanently? Temporarily? Who knows.

tharkun__ 6y ago

So are you saying that if you set a target for someone to reach, if he doesn't reach it in exactly the way that you predicted he would, he didn't actually reach the target?

Supermancho 6y ago
> So are you saying that if you set a target for someone to reach No > "Peak oil is the year when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline." The maximum rate possible, was not reached. There has been a voluntary reduction in rate. This is not in dispute. The graph suggests a terminal decline in demand, for which you could say there is some form of an expectation (for the most optimistic? viewer), but the prefix condition was not met. Peak oil is not an statement about economics, but about practical conditions that have an economic effect. Re-interpretations withstanding, as mentioned, history has an inherent possibility of increased production in the future which also fails both conditions. There is no coherent interpretation that fits, at this time.
- tharkun__ 6y ago
  I would kindly suggest that yes you are then. The above is "how you predicted it would be reached". And to be fair how many others probably did and it might have been the original intention of the phrase even. I definitely thought of "peak oil" as the point after which there's just no more deposits we can tap to increase production. History will tell if this was really the "maximum rate" that humanity ever reached. As it will the terminal part of the decline. And maybe this was a local maximum. The article seems to want to predict that this was the global maximum. For now we can't prove either. Even if someone else in another article (like has happened before) predicts peak oil because there are no more known deposits to tap, it doesn't mean it's a global max. New deposits have been found after and were tapped while others hadn't run out yet and it turned out to be a local max. Why we reached the max is left open though. Maybe we reached the max now because this is the point at which demand never goes back up to previous levels, who knows. Still meats the definition. Edited for spelling.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
pc86 6y ago
"Peak oil" is a term of art (sort of). It has a precise meaning, which is that as demand continues to increase, supply decreases sharply and suddenly, with very little or almost no warning at all. Price explodes by several multiples more-or-less overnight. Demand hasn't increased, it's decreased. Supply hasn't decreased sharply. Neither condition was met. "We don't need as much oil anymore because of a worldwide pandemic" is certainly an interesting development but we don't just get to call it "peak oil" so that people who were wrong 15 years ago can suddenly feel vindicated.
- undersuit 6y ago
  I don't know how you can say it has a precise meaning and then you define a meaning different than Wikipedia. Is it precise for you? "It is often confused with oil depletion; however, whereas depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply, peak oil refers to the point of maximum production."
  - ben_w 6y ago
    Sounds to me like one follows the other?
- mindslight 6y ago
  I agree this is how it was originally defined 15 years ago. But I feel sometime more recently (5-7?) it morphed into the idea that the price of renewables sets a cap on the price of extraction. So rather than the price of oil exploding, demand for it at its regular price point would fall. Now does a year of pandemic slowdown indicate an overarching trend? The article tries to make that point, but crises always bring out the prognosticators.
  - undersuit 6y ago
    Gotta disagree before Peak Oil was the buzzword it was Hubbert Peak Theory and his curves from the 1950s. And while it may not be 15 years ago, some of earliest edits to Peak Oil on Wikipedia from 2007 state: >the core of peak oil theory: peak oil does not mean that we will run out of oil, or even that we will cease to make major oil discoveries, but rather that we will be unable to maintain current levels of oil production. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Peak_oil&diff=992634609&oldid=127757546 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Peak_oil&diff=992...
jcranmer 6y ago
The notion of Peak Oil is that it is a situation where crude oil supply is permanently unable to meet demand, and all of the thinking and discussion around it is about how you handle that situation, in terms of ramifications for both suppliers and consumers of oil. What is instead happening is that demand for oil has peaked before supply for oil has peaked. This is the completely opposite situation as the scenario envisioned by Peak Oil. All of those plans you would have been making for Peak Oil are now useless, especially if you are an oil supplier.
- pmoriarty 6y ago
  "What is instead happening is that demand for oil has peaked before supply for oil has peaked." Demand for oil at the old price level peaked, but I bet if you sold oil for 1/10th or 1/100th of the price, there'd be plenty of demand for it. So what's really changed is the price that people were willing to pay for oil. The demand is still high, but the price people are willing to pay for it is lower than before.
  - mlyle 6y ago
    Yah, that's exactly it. Supply and demand curves describe the supply and demand at given prices. We thought the number of units of oil supplied was going to eventually permanently fall primarily from the supply curve shifting up and to the left. But then the fracking revolution happened, and it looked like maybe introduction of artificial measures to shift the supply curve upwards (carbon taxes) might be required-- to purposely reach peak oil. But now we have this situation where instead the demand curve has shifted rightwards instead... Permanently? Temporarily? Who knows.