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"A year ago, if anyone in the petroleum business had suggested that the moment of Peak Oil had already passed, they would have been laughed right off the drill

"A year ago, if anyone in the petroleum business had suggested that the moment of Peak Oil had already passed, they would have been laughed right off the drilling rig. Then 2020 happened. ... Humanity's thirst for oil may never again return to prior levels." That's not what peak oil means. Peak oil is exactly the opposite: when demand for cheap oil outstrips supply. In this article they're talking about there being more supply than demand: exactly the opposite of peak oil. But, yeah, I guess if they redefine peak oil to mean what they want it to mean, they have a point. Update: I've thought about it some more, and I realized that what they describe is peak oil. It's not that the definition of peak oil has changed, but what counts as "cheap" has changed. So there are really two ways to achieve peak oil. The first way is for the definition of "cheap oil" to stay the same, but the supply of oil at that price level to permanently drop below the demand for oil at that price level. The second way is for the definition of "cheap oil" to drop while supply at the previous price level stays the same. The fact that "cheap oil" may be redefined shows that "peak oil" is a flexible concept, not something etched in stone. When the price at which oil seems "cheap" rises, then the supply could still be there, and when that price falls then it's no surprise there's not as much of it any more. Or maybe I'm confused again? What do you think?

tonyedgecombe 6y ago
According to Wikipedia "Peak oil is the year when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline."
- notfromhere 6y ago
  When this was big in the 2000s, maximum extraction is reached because supply is maximized, not because demand has entered terminal decline.
  - tharkun__ 6y ago
    So are you saying that if you set a target for someone to reach, if he doesn't reach it in exactly the way that you predicted he would, he didn't actually reach the target?
    - Supermancho 6y ago
      > So are you saying that if you set a target for someone to reach No > "Peak oil is the year when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline." The maximum rate possible, was not reached. There has been a voluntary reduction in rate. This is not in dispute. The graph suggests a terminal decline in demand, for which you could say there is some form of an expectation (for the most optimistic? viewer), but the prefix condition was not met. Peak oil is not an statement about economics, but about practical conditions that have an economic effect. Re-interpretations withstanding, as mentioned, history has an inherent possibility of increased production in the future which also fails both conditions. There is no coherent interpretation that fits, at this time.
      - tharkun__ 6y ago
        I would kindly suggest that yes you are then. The above is "how you predicted it would be reached". And to be fair how many others probably did and it might have been the original intention of the phrase even. I definitely thought of "peak oil" as the point after which there's just no more deposits we can tap to increase production. History will tell if this was really the "maximum rate" that humanity ever reached. As it will the terminal part of the decline. And maybe this was a local maximum. The article seems to want to predict that this was the global maximum. For now we can't prove either. Even if someone else in another article (like has happened before) predicts peak oil because there are no more known deposits to tap, it doesn't mean it's a global max. New deposits have been found after and were tapped while others hadn't run out yet and it turned out to be a local max. Why we reached the max is left open though. Maybe we reached the max now because this is the point at which demand never goes back up to previous levels, who knows. Still meats the definition. Edited for spelling.
        deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
    - pc86 6y ago
      "Peak oil" is a term of art (sort of). It has a precise meaning, which is that as demand continues to increase, supply decreases sharply and suddenly, with very little or almost no warning at all. Price explodes by several multiples more-or-less overnight. Demand hasn't increased, it's decreased. Supply hasn't decreased sharply. Neither condition was met. "We don't need as much oil anymore because of a worldwide pandemic" is certainly an interesting development but we don't just get to call it "peak oil" so that people who were wrong 15 years ago can suddenly feel vindicated.
baxtr 6y ago
Yeah, maybe you are confused indeed. Because if peak oil is a flexible thing, then we have seen it AND will see it again. Like the Schrödinger thing, you know? Now, I’m confused too...

tonyedgecombe 6y ago

According to Wikipedia "Peak oil is the year when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline."

notfromhere 6y ago
When this was big in the 2000s, maximum extraction is reached because supply is maximized, not because demand has entered terminal decline.
- tharkun__ 6y ago
  So are you saying that if you set a target for someone to reach, if he doesn't reach it in exactly the way that you predicted he would, he didn't actually reach the target?
  - Supermancho 6y ago
    > So are you saying that if you set a target for someone to reach No > "Peak oil is the year when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline." The maximum rate possible, was not reached. There has been a voluntary reduction in rate. This is not in dispute. The graph suggests a terminal decline in demand, for which you could say there is some form of an expectation (for the most optimistic? viewer), but the prefix condition was not met. Peak oil is not an statement about economics, but about practical conditions that have an economic effect. Re-interpretations withstanding, as mentioned, history has an inherent possibility of increased production in the future which also fails both conditions. There is no coherent interpretation that fits, at this time.
    - tharkun__ 6y ago
      I would kindly suggest that yes you are then. The above is "how you predicted it would be reached". And to be fair how many others probably did and it might have been the original intention of the phrase even. I definitely thought of "peak oil" as the point after which there's just no more deposits we can tap to increase production. History will tell if this was really the "maximum rate" that humanity ever reached. As it will the terminal part of the decline. And maybe this was a local maximum. The article seems to want to predict that this was the global maximum. For now we can't prove either. Even if someone else in another article (like has happened before) predicts peak oil because there are no more known deposits to tap, it doesn't mean it's a global max. New deposits have been found after and were tapped while others hadn't run out yet and it turned out to be a local max. Why we reached the max is left open though. Maybe we reached the max now because this is the point at which demand never goes back up to previous levels, who knows. Still meats the definition. Edited for spelling.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
  - pc86 6y ago
    "Peak oil" is a term of art (sort of). It has a precise meaning, which is that as demand continues to increase, supply decreases sharply and suddenly, with very little or almost no warning at all. Price explodes by several multiples more-or-less overnight. Demand hasn't increased, it's decreased. Supply hasn't decreased sharply. Neither condition was met. "We don't need as much oil anymore because of a worldwide pandemic" is certainly an interesting development but we don't just get to call it "peak oil" so that people who were wrong 15 years ago can suddenly feel vindicated.

baxtr 6y ago

Yeah, maybe you are confused indeed. Because if peak oil is a flexible thing, then we have seen it AND will see it again. Like the Schrödinger thing, you know? Now, I’m confused too...