6 ms·

When can we expect vaccination to combat these numbers

throwaway4good 6y ago
Maybe after summer 2021.
vorpalhex 6y ago
From what I've read in financial news, optimists place the vaccine rolling out in December, but more conservative guesses are towards Q1/Q2. Note that in the US and most countries, it'll be folks working in hospitals and other healthcare settings that get it first, then likely high risk elderly (nursing home patients, etc). The UK has a very extensive set of guidelines on who gets it, the US does not yet but those policies will happen at the state level.
- bluGill 6y ago
  It is reasonable to think that the first vaccine will be approved next week and a few million people will have their first dose. The second dose (3 weeks latter) will be next year, and it is a week after that before full protection arrives.
  - vorpalhex 6y ago
    The FDA has not yet approved it, and that approval may be as late as the 17th. I do not believe the vaccine can be shipped to doctors until it has been approved, and logistics of a cold vaccine takes time.
    - bluGill 6y ago
      The 17th when the advisory board meets for the second vaccine. For this the board meets on the 10th. Though you are right that we don't know when (or if) it will be approved, it seems unlikely they will wait that long after the board meets.
gerbal 6y ago
It really depends on vaccination rates and the transmission rates of vaccinated people. Vaccines aren't going to reach mass distribution until February or March at the earliest. It's an open question just how much vaccination reduces low-level infection and retransmission. The published vaccine trials have been focused on incidence of symptoms and reduction in mortality in the vaccinated group. It remains possible that the death rate may climb among the unvaccinated if others' vaccinations is used as an excuse for risky behavior.
- 0xffff2 6y ago
  >Also vaccinated people can still catch and transmit covid, though they are not going to experience severe symptoms. This is stated with far too much confidence. It may be true that vaccinated individuals can still transmit COVID. It may also be true that they can't. We don't know yet.
  - gerbal 6y ago
    You are correct, I've edited my comment to be appropriately hedged
  - MaxDPS 6y ago
    Isn’t this a fact though (just not in the way OP meant)? The current vaccines have a ~90% success rate. That means that 1/10 people might still get COVID-19 and possibly transmit it.
    - ghaff 6y ago
      The vaccine trials did not test whether people who did not get COVID-19 might nonetheless have been infectious. The assumption is that it reduces or even eliminates infectiousness but that hasn't actually been tested for AFAIK.
    - 0xffff2 6y ago
      The statement as originally written implies that all people who are vaccinated can still transmit the disease. That may be true, but it's unlikely and we don't have enough data to say one way or the other yet.
hnrodey 6y ago
In the US we have pinned 1000% of our hopes on a vaccine. What if the vaccine does not deliver the expected results? What does the average layperson expect the results to be?
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  It's unlikely the US will maintain strict social distancing restrictions after a vaccine rollout. There's every reason to believe that the vaccine will stop the spread, but if somehow it doesn't, I expect most laypeople will just accept the world's become a deadlier place.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    That sounds about right. I expect the holidays will see people relaxing in any case. And once individuals are vaccinated, they may maintain some masking etc. for a while just because it's easier to comply with rules than get into confrontations. But I see people getting more casual in general already and when they're vaccinated I expect it will be pretty much flipping a switching as far as activities are concerned.
    - hnrodey 6y ago
      If the “protect thy neighbor” narrative falls apart after a vaccine is narrowly available then much of that was shenanigans and/or virtue signaling all along.
  - hnrodey 6y ago
    Looks like no one knows for certain if the vaccine will prevent the spread. What if the vaccine does not have a significant impact on the spread? I wonder how the “protect thy neighbor” group will change once people feel genuinely comfortable their personal risk is lowered. https://thehill.com/news-by-subject/healthcare/528619-pfizer-chairman-were-not-sure-if-someone-can-transmit-virus-after https://thehill.com/news-by-subject/healthcare/528619-pfizer... https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037
SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
For the death toll, very soon - vaccinations are expected to start in the US next week, and nursing homes which drive almost half of the deaths in the pandemic are very high on the priority list. Hospitalization and case numbers won't be affected by vaccination so quickly, but most sources I've read expect that general vaccination will start by springtime and end the crisis by summer.

Maybe after summer 2021.

From what I've read in financial news, optimists place the vaccine rolling out in December, but more conservative guesses are towards Q1/Q2. Note that in the US and most countries, it'll be folks working in hospitals and other healthcare settings that get it first, then likely high risk elderly (nursing home patients, etc). The UK has a very extensive set of guidelines on who gets it, the US does not yet but those policies will happen at the state level.

bluGill 6y ago
It is reasonable to think that the first vaccine will be approved next week and a few million people will have their first dose. The second dose (3 weeks latter) will be next year, and it is a week after that before full protection arrives.
- vorpalhex 6y ago
  The FDA has not yet approved it, and that approval may be as late as the 17th. I do not believe the vaccine can be shipped to doctors until it has been approved, and logistics of a cold vaccine takes time.
  - bluGill 6y ago
    The 17th when the advisory board meets for the second vaccine. For this the board meets on the 10th. Though you are right that we don't know when (or if) it will be approved, it seems unlikely they will wait that long after the board meets.

gerbal 6y ago

It really depends on vaccination rates and the transmission rates of vaccinated people. Vaccines aren't going to reach mass distribution until February or March at the earliest. It's an open question just how much vaccination reduces low-level infection and retransmission. The published vaccine trials have been focused on incidence of symptoms and reduction in mortality in the vaccinated group. It remains possible that the death rate may climb among the unvaccinated if others' vaccinations is used as an excuse for risky behavior.

0xffff2 6y ago
>Also vaccinated people can still catch and transmit covid, though they are not going to experience severe symptoms. This is stated with far too much confidence. It may be true that vaccinated individuals can still transmit COVID. It may also be true that they can't. We don't know yet.
- gerbal 6y ago
  You are correct, I've edited my comment to be appropriately hedged
- MaxDPS 6y ago
  Isn’t this a fact though (just not in the way OP meant)? The current vaccines have a ~90% success rate. That means that 1/10 people might still get COVID-19 and possibly transmit it.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    The vaccine trials did not test whether people who did not get COVID-19 might nonetheless have been infectious. The assumption is that it reduces or even eliminates infectiousness but that hasn't actually been tested for AFAIK.
  - 0xffff2 6y ago
    The statement as originally written implies that all people who are vaccinated can still transmit the disease. That may be true, but it's unlikely and we don't have enough data to say one way or the other yet.

hnrodey 6y ago

In the US we have pinned 1000% of our hopes on a vaccine. What if the vaccine does not deliver the expected results? What does the average layperson expect the results to be?

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
It's unlikely the US will maintain strict social distancing restrictions after a vaccine rollout. There's every reason to believe that the vaccine will stop the spread, but if somehow it doesn't, I expect most laypeople will just accept the world's become a deadlier place.
- ghaff 6y ago
  That sounds about right. I expect the holidays will see people relaxing in any case. And once individuals are vaccinated, they may maintain some masking etc. for a while just because it's easier to comply with rules than get into confrontations. But I see people getting more casual in general already and when they're vaccinated I expect it will be pretty much flipping a switching as far as activities are concerned.
  - hnrodey 6y ago
    If the “protect thy neighbor” narrative falls apart after a vaccine is narrowly available then much of that was shenanigans and/or virtue signaling all along.
- hnrodey 6y ago
  Looks like no one knows for certain if the vaccine will prevent the spread. What if the vaccine does not have a significant impact on the spread? I wonder how the “protect thy neighbor” group will change once people feel genuinely comfortable their personal risk is lowered. https://thehill.com/news-by-subject/healthcare/528619-pfizer-chairman-were-not-sure-if-someone-can-transmit-virus-after https://thehill.com/news-by-subject/healthcare/528619-pfizer... https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

For the death toll, very soon - vaccinations are expected to start in the US next week, and nursing homes which drive almost half of the deaths in the pandemic are very high on the priority list. Hospitalization and case numbers won't be affected by vaccination so quickly, but most sources I've read expect that general vaccination will start by springtime and end the crisis by summer.