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At this point it seems demand for oil will run out before supply

by freewilly1040 6y ago

ako 6y ago
We'll still need oil, not for energy, but as a raw material for production of plastics and many other products.
- hollerith 6y ago
  And plastic does not turn into CO2.
  - pmiller2 6y ago
    Plastic has its own issues, as does the production of plastic.
- stale2002 6y ago
  > We'll still need oil Sure, but not nearly in as large of quantities. If the value of saudi arabian oil plummets to 1/4th its value, then they are still screwed, even though "oil is still used as raw materials" and it has non-zero value. Owning something that is almost worthless isn't really much better than owning something that is literally worthless.
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  Perhaps, but that won’t save KSA. First, most plastics are now made from natural gas, something KSA doesn’t produce a huge amount of. They’ve got decent reserves, but their production lags. Qatar produced 70% more LNG last year than KSA. LNG is also kind of a pain to transit by sea, which advantages countries that can produce natural gas closer to the factories (e.g. The United States and Russia, among others). And second, plastic production consumes a relatively small part of the world petroleum production. Here in the US it’s estimated that about 2.7% of our yearly petroleum consumption. World wide only 4% of world petroleum went into plastics (2012 figure). So even if plastics continue to be made of oil, plastic consumption remains constant, and there is no major shift in who produces the feedstocks for plastic (all wildly optimistic assumptions), then KSA can expect to keep about 2.7-4% of their current oil export budgets. That is catastrophic for a country like KSA, who needs all the oil money they can get.
pmiller2 6y ago
I hope so, but then I look around at all the less developed countries out there and all I see is a massive demand for oil. :/
- yazaddaruvala 6y ago
  As per the article, renewables will be significantly cheaper than oil. Why would a poor country not purchase the cheaper option?
  - pmiller2 6y ago
    You tell me why poor countries wouldn’t invest in solar, wind, hydro, or geothermal. (Hint: you have to build the infrastructure first, and not all of these are even practical everywhere.) Hydrogen isn’t all that practical as a fuel, and biomass just puts CO2 back into the atmosphere. Can you think of a renewable source of energy that’s both attractive to poor and developing countries, and also practical? Oil is easy. You put it in a tank, then pump it through an atomizer, and set it on fire. You can transport it easily, it works anywhere, and you can run a car on it. I know, electric cars are a thing, but not in the places I’m talking about here. Electrical transmission across long distances, and, especially between different countries with different power grids is a nightmare. What am I missing here?
    - relaxing 6y ago
      You’re massively underestimating the infrastructure needed to take oil and put it in the consumers’ hands. Biomass puts CO2 back in the atmosphere, but at least it’s not increasing the total CO2 in the biosphere.
      - pmiller2 6y ago
        Most of that infrastructure is in the extraction and transport to the destination country. Once the oil is there, all you really need is a storage system, and a way for consumers to buy it. There's no need to pump it around, at all. You can transport it by truck. Growing up, my family had a fuel oil heater. We'd have the tank filled periodically, and that was all there was. Likewise, gas pumps are just storage tanks hooked up to pumps. There's practically nothing to it; it's all basically 19th century technology that's easy to build, and doesn't require any sophisticated engineering.

At this point it seems demand for oil will run out before supply

ako 6y ago

We'll still need oil, not for energy, but as a raw material for production of plastics and many other products.

hollerith 6y ago
And plastic does not turn into CO2.
- pmiller2 6y ago
  Plastic has its own issues, as does the production of plastic.
stale2002 6y ago
> We'll still need oil Sure, but not nearly in as large of quantities. If the value of saudi arabian oil plummets to 1/4th its value, then they are still screwed, even though "oil is still used as raw materials" and it has non-zero value. Owning something that is almost worthless isn't really much better than owning something that is literally worthless.
ashtonkem 6y ago
Perhaps, but that won’t save KSA. First, most plastics are now made from natural gas, something KSA doesn’t produce a huge amount of. They’ve got decent reserves, but their production lags. Qatar produced 70% more LNG last year than KSA. LNG is also kind of a pain to transit by sea, which advantages countries that can produce natural gas closer to the factories (e.g. The United States and Russia, among others). And second, plastic production consumes a relatively small part of the world petroleum production. Here in the US it’s estimated that about 2.7% of our yearly petroleum consumption. World wide only 4% of world petroleum went into plastics (2012 figure). So even if plastics continue to be made of oil, plastic consumption remains constant, and there is no major shift in who produces the feedstocks for plastic (all wildly optimistic assumptions), then KSA can expect to keep about 2.7-4% of their current oil export budgets. That is catastrophic for a country like KSA, who needs all the oil money they can get.

pmiller2 6y ago

I hope so, but then I look around at all the less developed countries out there and all I see is a massive demand for oil. :/

yazaddaruvala 6y ago
As per the article, renewables will be significantly cheaper than oil. Why would a poor country not purchase the cheaper option?
- pmiller2 6y ago
  You tell me why poor countries wouldn’t invest in solar, wind, hydro, or geothermal. (Hint: you have to build the infrastructure first, and not all of these are even practical everywhere.) Hydrogen isn’t all that practical as a fuel, and biomass just puts CO2 back into the atmosphere. Can you think of a renewable source of energy that’s both attractive to poor and developing countries, and also practical? Oil is easy. You put it in a tank, then pump it through an atomizer, and set it on fire. You can transport it easily, it works anywhere, and you can run a car on it. I know, electric cars are a thing, but not in the places I’m talking about here. Electrical transmission across long distances, and, especially between different countries with different power grids is a nightmare. What am I missing here?
  - relaxing 6y ago
    You’re massively underestimating the infrastructure needed to take oil and put it in the consumers’ hands. Biomass puts CO2 back in the atmosphere, but at least it’s not increasing the total CO2 in the biosphere.
    - pmiller2 6y ago
      Most of that infrastructure is in the extraction and transport to the destination country. Once the oil is there, all you really need is a storage system, and a way for consumers to buy it. There's no need to pump it around, at all. You can transport it by truck. Growing up, my family had a fuel oil heater. We'd have the tank filled periodically, and that was all there was. Likewise, gas pumps are just storage tanks hooked up to pumps. There's practically nothing to it; it's all basically 19th century technology that's easy to build, and doesn't require any sophisticated engineering.