7 ms·

I wonder if Apple will buy up all the capacity for the new process node again.

xiphias2 6y ago
Of course. M1 is a huge success and I see more friends of mine buying Apple devices with multiple months of their salaries at this point instead of getting an AMD laptop with more RAM and SSD for half the price.
- nevi-me 6y ago
  But would Apple be content with going from 5nm to 3nm nodes so "quickly"? Given that AMD has been able to squeeze out their Zen 2 and 3 IPC without the need to change nodes completely, it could make sense for Apple to do the same.
  - spacedcowboy 6y ago
    Yes. The answer to that is yes. And Apple almost certainly have had the designs in simulation and test/initial sampling already. CPU design isn't an overnight thing.
  - ogre_codes 6y ago
    Apple fundamentally has more units to spread their designs across. Also, for Apple performance per watt is king. Getting 5% better battery life for a phone is massive. For a desktop or even a laptop, it's nice, but maybe not worth paying the premium for TSMCs latest die shrink.
  - petra 6y ago
    Most Apple users aren't techies. So a macbook user can now feel he has the best computer and nobody else is even close. Nobody else is being manufactured using that magic. Maybe he'll even brag about that. How much is that worth to Apple ?
- Scarbutt 6y ago
  What AMD laptop costs $600 and has more than 16GB of RAM?
  - xiphias2 6y ago
    In Hungary you get a Macbook Air with 256GB SSD and 8GB RAM (cheapest M1) for $1440: https://www.alza.hu/macbook-air-m1/18884163.htm https://www.alza.hu/macbook-air-m1/18884163.htm 16GB with 1TB SSD is not available, but the official price is $2960: https://www.apple.com/hu/shop/buy-mac/macbook-pro/13-h%C3%BCvelykes-modell https://www.apple.com/hu/shop/buy-mac/macbook-pro/13-h%C3%BC... My girlfriend found a 14'' 16GB 1TB AMD 4000x laptop for $1050 there and loves it (ACER Swift 3)
    - ericpauley 6y ago
      Looks like VAT in Hungary is as high as 27% (is this the rate that applies in this case? VAT-inclusive pricing disguises this tax.), which accounts for much of the price difference.
      - xiphias2 6y ago
        Yes, 27% VAT + high tariffs are a toxic combination. At the same time for non Apple products there is maybe some dodging of taxes going on (like a company registered in Slovakia), you never know why a product is relatively cheap there, but you can guess.
        Olipro 6y ago
        I always used argep.hu for pricing computer bits. Dunno who's better
- r00fus 6y ago
  M1 is a good value - I am honestly amazed Apple didn't increase price points given the performance gains relative to the entire field, let alone their previous generation.
  - _ph_ 6y ago
    Apples pricing can be pretty funny from the outside. They certainly charge a ridiculous amount of money for memory and storage upgrades, on the other side some things are surprisingly cheap. Think of the entry level iPad for example. And now the Mini with the M1 getting cheaper than its predecessor. Short term, Apple could ask any price for the new M1 Macs. However, they have a longer term view with their pricing structure. For sure, they are having way less costs per device, as they don't have to pay the huge sums, Intel asks for their processors. The costs for Apple should be considerably down and they do relay that to the customer.
  - mekster 6y ago
    I suppose it was a wise movement to use that as a way to increase OS market share. I still see people not liking macOS without even trying it out which is funny but if more people start using it around them, those average joes might start giving them a try which in turn gives Apple profit.
- Ar-Curunir 6y ago
  But worse build quality and CPU and laptop power and... At this point it’s not clear if Apple machines are overpriced in any way; they beat all their competitors at their price point.
  - xiphias2 6y ago
    Sure, when she asked me about it, I told her to get it, try it for 2 weeks, and bring it back if she doesn't like it. The value depends on the usage. I wouldn't run photoshop +illustrator together with 256G of SSD and 8GB of RAM (which my girlfriend uses a lot), but M1 is amazing for web browsing, which my friend does mostly.
  - willtim 6y ago
    What exactly do you mean by "build quality"? Do you just mean built from glass and aluminium? (hardly obvious choices for a laptop). IMHO, Apple can hardly claim to be leading in "build quality", what with glued-in batteries, un-repairable designs and keyboard reliability issues that have been ongoing for years.
    - mschuster91 6y ago
      > Do you just mean built from glass and aluminium? (hardly obvious choices for a laptop). Aluminium bodies are way less prone to "oilification" (aka visibly shiny areas where one's palm rests), and I have yet to see any Windows laptop where the touchpad is comparable with MBPs in both size and quality (palm tracking, gestures). > what with glued-in batteries, un-repairable designs and keyboard reliability issues that have been ongoing for years. Battery replacements are possible even for someone with only moderate experience in hardware work, but I agree with you that the process is more complex than it used to be. Regarding the keyboard: get a 2019 16-inch MBP, it has a keyboard with real keys and a physical esc key.
    - mrtksn 6y ago
      > un-repairable designs Quality actually means no need to repair and use it till becomes obsolete. That's why Apple's stuff have drastically higher re-sell value than the competition. Only repair shops fancy to repair stuff, the rest of us prefer it not breaking down in first place.
- amelius 6y ago
  > AMD laptop with more RAM and SSD for half the price. So you're saying a hypothetical laptop with two AMD cpus inside is more powerful than a M1-based MacBook, yet still less expensive.
runeks 6y ago
If TSMC are smart they will reserve some capacity for AMD, in order to keep AMD as a customer. Apple has no alternative, so no reason to give Apple exclusive access (unless Apple pays a ton for it).
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  Or, use all that Apple money and build more capacity. Perhaps even try to get money out of the US federal government in exchange for an agreement to build new factories in the lower 48.
  - frakkingcylons 6y ago
    TSMC has announced they will build a 10nm fab in Arizona. But strategically speaking, Taiwan has an interest in keeping the latest and greatest fabs in Taiwan. It’s an incentive to keep the US invested in their defense.
    - szundi 6y ago
      And a good incentive now that Intel loses ground slowly.
    - baybal2 6y ago
      You don't need latest, and greatest process to make chips for missiles.
      - austinprete 6y ago
        Sure, but you might need it to keep several trillion dollars of GDP afloat and ensure economic stability, which is a precursor for national security.
- ogre_codes 6y ago
  > Apple has no alternative, so no reason to give Apple exclusive access Likely billions of reasons. It's likely Apple pays a significant premium to get that capacity. AMD might not even mind this arrangement. Apple is essentially funding these die shrinks and AMD benefits down the road.
manquer 6y ago
Apple has not really "bought up all the capacity" it was just PR spin. they had simply booked three months worth while TSMC is still ramping up the 5nm process. Apple market share is simply not large enough to do that. Yes their numbers are huge, but there are lot more people who cannot or will not buy laptops priced $ 1,000+ than there are ones who are ready to pay that globally.
- no_wizard 6y ago
  It’s not just the M1 though. I believe they are going to be if they aren’t already using TSMC for all their chips so iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch if I recall correctly. That’s a lot of capacity. Ultimately they’re in this huge success mode which is great! They just have to be careful Not to overbuild additional supply and end in a situation where demand tempers for some reason and they are now in a glut
  - ajross 6y ago
    To first approximation, it's not the M1 at all. In terms of silicon area, Apple ships iPhones, with a few other products mixed in. But mostly they just make iPhones.
  - hajile 6y ago
    Android devices outsell the iPhone almost 10 to 1. I'd wager that Qualcomm's 5nm orders will be very close to Apple's current order.
    - legulere 6y ago
      I think Android chips have less die area though (because they have less cache) and many android devices are rather cheap and have SoCs produced on older processes.
      - hajile 6y ago
        Snapdragon 865 is 83.54mm^2 (7nm) Apple A12 is 83.27mm^2 (7nm) Apple A13 is 98.48mm^2 (7nm+) Apple A14 is 88mm^2 (5nm) Not a very big difference. Remember, Qualcomm's chip includes a modem while Apple's does not (at present). Qualcomm has also been putting a lot of resources into other areas like neural processors. Their upcoming 888 claims 26 TOPS (vs 11 TOPS for Apple) Cache is a very common misnomer too. A14 has 8MB of shared L2. 888 has 4MB of shared L3 plus 1MB for the X1 core and 0.5MB per each A78 core. It also has 3MB of what they call DSU cache which serves as a kind of general cache for everything on the chip that needs to hit memory. That's actually 1.5MB more total cache than Apple offers.

Of course. M1 is a huge success and I see more friends of mine buying Apple devices with multiple months of their salaries at this point instead of getting an AMD laptop with more RAM and SSD for half the price.

nevi-me 6y ago
But would Apple be content with going from 5nm to 3nm nodes so "quickly"? Given that AMD has been able to squeeze out their Zen 2 and 3 IPC without the need to change nodes completely, it could make sense for Apple to do the same.
- spacedcowboy 6y ago
  Yes. The answer to that is yes. And Apple almost certainly have had the designs in simulation and test/initial sampling already. CPU design isn't an overnight thing.
- ogre_codes 6y ago
  Apple fundamentally has more units to spread their designs across. Also, for Apple performance per watt is king. Getting 5% better battery life for a phone is massive. For a desktop or even a laptop, it's nice, but maybe not worth paying the premium for TSMCs latest die shrink.
- petra 6y ago
  Most Apple users aren't techies. So a macbook user can now feel he has the best computer and nobody else is even close. Nobody else is being manufactured using that magic. Maybe he'll even brag about that. How much is that worth to Apple ?
Scarbutt 6y ago
What AMD laptop costs $600 and has more than 16GB of RAM?
- xiphias2 6y ago
  In Hungary you get a Macbook Air with 256GB SSD and 8GB RAM (cheapest M1) for $1440: https://www.alza.hu/macbook-air-m1/18884163.htm https://www.alza.hu/macbook-air-m1/18884163.htm 16GB with 1TB SSD is not available, but the official price is $2960: https://www.apple.com/hu/shop/buy-mac/macbook-pro/13-h%C3%BCvelykes-modell https://www.apple.com/hu/shop/buy-mac/macbook-pro/13-h%C3%BC... My girlfriend found a 14'' 16GB 1TB AMD 4000x laptop for $1050 there and loves it (ACER Swift 3)
  - ericpauley 6y ago
    Looks like VAT in Hungary is as high as 27% (is this the rate that applies in this case? VAT-inclusive pricing disguises this tax.), which accounts for much of the price difference.
    - xiphias2 6y ago
      Yes, 27% VAT + high tariffs are a toxic combination. At the same time for non Apple products there is maybe some dodging of taxes going on (like a company registered in Slovakia), you never know why a product is relatively cheap there, but you can guess.
      - Olipro 6y ago
        I always used argep.hu for pricing computer bits. Dunno who's better
r00fus 6y ago
M1 is a good value - I am honestly amazed Apple didn't increase price points given the performance gains relative to the entire field, let alone their previous generation.
- _ph_ 6y ago
  Apples pricing can be pretty funny from the outside. They certainly charge a ridiculous amount of money for memory and storage upgrades, on the other side some things are surprisingly cheap. Think of the entry level iPad for example. And now the Mini with the M1 getting cheaper than its predecessor. Short term, Apple could ask any price for the new M1 Macs. However, they have a longer term view with their pricing structure. For sure, they are having way less costs per device, as they don't have to pay the huge sums, Intel asks for their processors. The costs for Apple should be considerably down and they do relay that to the customer.
- mekster 6y ago
  I suppose it was a wise movement to use that as a way to increase OS market share. I still see people not liking macOS without even trying it out which is funny but if more people start using it around them, those average joes might start giving them a try which in turn gives Apple profit.
Ar-Curunir 6y ago
But worse build quality and CPU and laptop power and... At this point it’s not clear if Apple machines are overpriced in any way; they beat all their competitors at their price point.
- xiphias2 6y ago
  Sure, when she asked me about it, I told her to get it, try it for 2 weeks, and bring it back if she doesn't like it. The value depends on the usage. I wouldn't run photoshop +illustrator together with 256G of SSD and 8GB of RAM (which my girlfriend uses a lot), but M1 is amazing for web browsing, which my friend does mostly.
- willtim 6y ago
  What exactly do you mean by "build quality"? Do you just mean built from glass and aluminium? (hardly obvious choices for a laptop). IMHO, Apple can hardly claim to be leading in "build quality", what with glued-in batteries, un-repairable designs and keyboard reliability issues that have been ongoing for years.
  - mschuster91 6y ago
    > Do you just mean built from glass and aluminium? (hardly obvious choices for a laptop). Aluminium bodies are way less prone to "oilification" (aka visibly shiny areas where one's palm rests), and I have yet to see any Windows laptop where the touchpad is comparable with MBPs in both size and quality (palm tracking, gestures). > what with glued-in batteries, un-repairable designs and keyboard reliability issues that have been ongoing for years. Battery replacements are possible even for someone with only moderate experience in hardware work, but I agree with you that the process is more complex than it used to be. Regarding the keyboard: get a 2019 16-inch MBP, it has a keyboard with real keys and a physical esc key.
  - mrtksn 6y ago
    > un-repairable designs Quality actually means no need to repair and use it till becomes obsolete. That's why Apple's stuff have drastically higher re-sell value than the competition. Only repair shops fancy to repair stuff, the rest of us prefer it not breaking down in first place.
amelius 6y ago
> AMD laptop with more RAM and SSD for half the price. So you're saying a hypothetical laptop with two AMD cpus inside is more powerful than a M1-based MacBook, yet still less expensive.

runeks 6y ago

If TSMC are smart they will reserve some capacity for AMD, in order to keep AMD as a customer. Apple has no alternative, so no reason to give Apple exclusive access (unless Apple pays a ton for it).

ashtonkem 6y ago
Or, use all that Apple money and build more capacity. Perhaps even try to get money out of the US federal government in exchange for an agreement to build new factories in the lower 48.
- frakkingcylons 6y ago
  TSMC has announced they will build a 10nm fab in Arizona. But strategically speaking, Taiwan has an interest in keeping the latest and greatest fabs in Taiwan. It’s an incentive to keep the US invested in their defense.
  - szundi 6y ago
    And a good incentive now that Intel loses ground slowly.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    You don't need latest, and greatest process to make chips for missiles.
    - austinprete 6y ago
      Sure, but you might need it to keep several trillion dollars of GDP afloat and ensure economic stability, which is a precursor for national security.
ogre_codes 6y ago
> Apple has no alternative, so no reason to give Apple exclusive access Likely billions of reasons. It's likely Apple pays a significant premium to get that capacity. AMD might not even mind this arrangement. Apple is essentially funding these die shrinks and AMD benefits down the road.

manquer 6y ago

Apple has not really "bought up all the capacity" it was just PR spin. they had simply booked three months worth while TSMC is still ramping up the 5nm process. Apple market share is simply not large enough to do that. Yes their numbers are huge, but there are lot more people who cannot or will not buy laptops priced $ 1,000+ than there are ones who are ready to pay that globally.

no_wizard 6y ago
It’s not just the M1 though. I believe they are going to be if they aren’t already using TSMC for all their chips so iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch if I recall correctly. That’s a lot of capacity. Ultimately they’re in this huge success mode which is great! They just have to be careful Not to overbuild additional supply and end in a situation where demand tempers for some reason and they are now in a glut
- ajross 6y ago
  To first approximation, it's not the M1 at all. In terms of silicon area, Apple ships iPhones, with a few other products mixed in. But mostly they just make iPhones.
- hajile 6y ago
  Android devices outsell the iPhone almost 10 to 1. I'd wager that Qualcomm's 5nm orders will be very close to Apple's current order.
  - legulere 6y ago
    I think Android chips have less die area though (because they have less cache) and many android devices are rather cheap and have SoCs produced on older processes.
    - hajile 6y ago
      Snapdragon 865 is 83.54mm^2 (7nm) Apple A12 is 83.27mm^2 (7nm) Apple A13 is 98.48mm^2 (7nm+) Apple A14 is 88mm^2 (5nm) Not a very big difference. Remember, Qualcomm's chip includes a modem while Apple's does not (at present). Qualcomm has also been putting a lot of resources into other areas like neural processors. Their upcoming 888 claims 26 TOPS (vs 11 TOPS for Apple) Cache is a very common misnomer too. A14 has 8MB of shared L2. 888 has 4MB of shared L3 plus 1MB for the X1 core and 0.5MB per each A78 core. It also has 3MB of what they call DSU cache which serves as a kind of general cache for everything on the chip that needs to hit memory. That's actually 1.5MB more total cache than Apple offers.