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I was having a discussion recently in another forum where I argued that success at a Math Olympiad is a good indicator of future success. I'm not surprised to s

I was having a discussion recently in another forum where I argued that success at a Math Olympiad is a good indicator of future success. I'm not surprised to see in the slightest he won a gold medal at 16.

munchbunny 6y ago
That doesn’t seem like a hot take to me. Success at a Math Olympiad (at the international level) is almost certainly a good indicator because you have to be an outlier in both talent and willingness to grind in order to get that far, and that level of achievement is the type of success that snowballs because people respect the achievement.
- MaximumYComb 6y ago
  You'd think it would be a hot take but I had someone arguing against me that it's not a good indicator since only approx 20% of competitors get a PhD in Math. I felt that he was emotionally invested in his argument, likely due to wanting to do a math PhD and not being food at the competitions. I even agreed that you don't need to be good at competitions to get a PhD but he still kept to his argument that being good doesn't help at all
  - lordnacho 6y ago
    What's a "hot take"? I agree with the answer above. You need to pour a fair bit of effort into getting on an Olympiad team. Whether you get a PhD is more a question of economics, IMO. If you're showing that much promise there will be many other temptations, and bear in mind it's not just rich countries that have math kids, there's plenty of olympiad kids who need to get out and make money when they've done their degrees. The kind of work you do in a PhD is also quite different. A math contest is a few questions with definite answers and a time limit.
    - benrbray 6y ago
      > What's a "hot take"? It's slang for "unsubstantiated opinion likely to incite controversy". Weird how this word started appearing everywhere suddenly in the last few months.
      - SuoDuanDao 6y ago
        It's an easy form of self-effacement. If I state my opinion and someone proves me wrong, I'd look silly at best, or risk cancellation at worst. If I preface by saying it's a hot take, I can easily distance myself from what I said if it's received badly.
    - monktastic1 6y ago
      Also think they meant "you wouldn't think it would be a hot take, but..."
      - MaximumYComb 6y ago
        That's 100% what I meant.
    - munchbunny 6y ago
      I use "hot take" to mean someone is stating an opinion (there is not enough evidence so this is an opinion at best), that they're stating it with probably more intensity/confidence than it deserves, and that you'd expect the opinion to be controversial. In this case, by "that doesn't seem like a hot take to me" I mean that as far as opinions go this seems pretty uncontroversial.
  - MaxBarraclough 6y ago
    > I had someone arguing against me that it's not a good indicator since only approx 20% of competitors get a PhD in Math As lordnacho says, that argument doesn't hold up at all. 20% seems really high, to me. A PhD in math isn't like scoring highly on an IQ test, it's not purely the result of being mathematically capable, it's also the result of undertaking a PhD in math. Plenty of smart people apply their abilities elsewhere. Perhaps in finance, for instance. Also, I'd guess that the Olympiad winners who started a math PhD were more likely to succeed than the average math PhD student, and more likely than average to eventually get tenure. > not being food at the competitions I rather like this typo ;-P
    - MaximumYComb 6y ago
      I had multiple typos. When I made these comments I was coming off a 40.1 degree fever and was laying in bed with my phone when I saw this post. I wrote some hand notes too and they're even worse. The same word is spelled incorrectly in two different ways.
- captain_price7 6y ago
  In computer science world, I've personally noticed there is a dismissive attitude towards programming competitions among many, including some of my teachers. Here, it is a hot take. I never understood this sentiment though. Competitions like ICPC aren't like silly quizzes, you need to have incredibly good understanding of algorithms and data structures. Now I understand that the breadth required here is of course broader than anything a programmer likely to use in an "average" programming task, but then again you shouldn't compare a ICPC finalist with an average programmer either.
  - munchbunny 6y ago
    It really depends on what you're trying to correlate. When it comes to trying to read anything out of how someone does in something like ICPC, I compare it to doing well as an athlete: there's definitely something transferrable in there, but it's hard to claim that it's any specific technical skills. If you're good at competition programming, you can probably sling code pretty well, but that doesn't mean you're good at writing maintainable code in team contexts. But if there aren't other red flags I'd take it as positive signal that you're smart enough and hard-working enough to learn to do it quickly.
  - MauranKilom 6y ago
    I think this difference stems from how easy it is to apply and display your skills to projects outside of competitions. I mean, how are you going to demonstrate your mathematical problem solving skills to an employer in a side project? "I research the Collatz conjecture in my free time?" Contrast that with programming, where there are practical challenges abound whichever way you look. So those choosing to participate in competitions instead presumably have a much more narrow range of motivations. I can't tell you why this should translate into dismissing these people, but there is certainly a difference.
temp_imo 6y ago
The math olympiad success underestimates him. I would say that in terms of mathematical abilities, Gold on the IMO <---> tenure at a top-100 university. Aswhin will maybe be a Fields medal candidate.
- skj 6y ago
  Hopefully he doesn't read this and develop a complex :)
- darkwizard42 6y ago
  I think the level of productivity he has shown in just his undergrad is crazy! I think you are right that if he holds this up it will be exciting to see what comes next.
- atq2119 6y ago
  He may be working in the wrong subfield of math to win a Fields medal.

munchbunny 6y ago

That doesn’t seem like a hot take to me. Success at a Math Olympiad (at the international level) is almost certainly a good indicator because you have to be an outlier in both talent and willingness to grind in order to get that far, and that level of achievement is the type of success that snowballs because people respect the achievement.

MaximumYComb 6y ago
You'd think it would be a hot take but I had someone arguing against me that it's not a good indicator since only approx 20% of competitors get a PhD in Math. I felt that he was emotionally invested in his argument, likely due to wanting to do a math PhD and not being food at the competitions. I even agreed that you don't need to be good at competitions to get a PhD but he still kept to his argument that being good doesn't help at all
- lordnacho 6y ago
  What's a "hot take"? I agree with the answer above. You need to pour a fair bit of effort into getting on an Olympiad team. Whether you get a PhD is more a question of economics, IMO. If you're showing that much promise there will be many other temptations, and bear in mind it's not just rich countries that have math kids, there's plenty of olympiad kids who need to get out and make money when they've done their degrees. The kind of work you do in a PhD is also quite different. A math contest is a few questions with definite answers and a time limit.
  - benrbray 6y ago
    > What's a "hot take"? It's slang for "unsubstantiated opinion likely to incite controversy". Weird how this word started appearing everywhere suddenly in the last few months.
    - SuoDuanDao 6y ago
      It's an easy form of self-effacement. If I state my opinion and someone proves me wrong, I'd look silly at best, or risk cancellation at worst. If I preface by saying it's a hot take, I can easily distance myself from what I said if it's received badly.
  - monktastic1 6y ago
    Also think they meant "you wouldn't think it would be a hot take, but..."
    - MaximumYComb 6y ago
      That's 100% what I meant.
  - munchbunny 6y ago
    I use "hot take" to mean someone is stating an opinion (there is not enough evidence so this is an opinion at best), that they're stating it with probably more intensity/confidence than it deserves, and that you'd expect the opinion to be controversial. In this case, by "that doesn't seem like a hot take to me" I mean that as far as opinions go this seems pretty uncontroversial.
- MaxBarraclough 6y ago
  > I had someone arguing against me that it's not a good indicator since only approx 20% of competitors get a PhD in Math As lordnacho says, that argument doesn't hold up at all. 20% seems really high, to me. A PhD in math isn't like scoring highly on an IQ test, it's not purely the result of being mathematically capable, it's also the result of undertaking a PhD in math. Plenty of smart people apply their abilities elsewhere. Perhaps in finance, for instance. Also, I'd guess that the Olympiad winners who started a math PhD were more likely to succeed than the average math PhD student, and more likely than average to eventually get tenure. > not being food at the competitions I rather like this typo ;-P
  - MaximumYComb 6y ago
    I had multiple typos. When I made these comments I was coming off a 40.1 degree fever and was laying in bed with my phone when I saw this post. I wrote some hand notes too and they're even worse. The same word is spelled incorrectly in two different ways.
captain_price7 6y ago
In computer science world, I've personally noticed there is a dismissive attitude towards programming competitions among many, including some of my teachers. Here, it is a hot take. I never understood this sentiment though. Competitions like ICPC aren't like silly quizzes, you need to have incredibly good understanding of algorithms and data structures. Now I understand that the breadth required here is of course broader than anything a programmer likely to use in an "average" programming task, but then again you shouldn't compare a ICPC finalist with an average programmer either.
- munchbunny 6y ago
  It really depends on what you're trying to correlate. When it comes to trying to read anything out of how someone does in something like ICPC, I compare it to doing well as an athlete: there's definitely something transferrable in there, but it's hard to claim that it's any specific technical skills. If you're good at competition programming, you can probably sling code pretty well, but that doesn't mean you're good at writing maintainable code in team contexts. But if there aren't other red flags I'd take it as positive signal that you're smart enough and hard-working enough to learn to do it quickly.
- MauranKilom 6y ago
  I think this difference stems from how easy it is to apply and display your skills to projects outside of competitions. I mean, how are you going to demonstrate your mathematical problem solving skills to an employer in a side project? "I research the Collatz conjecture in my free time?" Contrast that with programming, where there are practical challenges abound whichever way you look. So those choosing to participate in competitions instead presumably have a much more narrow range of motivations. I can't tell you why this should translate into dismissing these people, but there is certainly a difference.

temp_imo 6y ago

The math olympiad success underestimates him. I would say that in terms of mathematical abilities, Gold on the IMO <---> tenure at a top-100 university. Aswhin will maybe be a Fields medal candidate.

skj 6y ago
Hopefully he doesn't read this and develop a complex :)
darkwizard42 6y ago
I think the level of productivity he has shown in just his undergrad is crazy! I think you are right that if he holds this up it will be exciting to see what comes next.
atq2119 6y ago
He may be working in the wrong subfield of math to win a Fields medal.