15 ms·

Vitamin D insufficiency may account for almost 90% of Covid-19 deaths

426 points by voisin 6y ago

beervirus 6y ago
The big question is whether taking vitamin D supplements would address this, or whether having low vitamin D just happens to correlate with the real risk factors (sedentary, indoor lifestyle; unhealthy diet; obesity; etc.).
- tertius 6y ago
  Any of these studies include your metrics of interest? I.e. BMI, blood pressure etc.?
- nucleardog 6y ago
  That’s the obvious question that’s specifically raised as unanswered in all of these studies. But given the risks of supplementing vitamin D are about as close to zero as you can get it seems likely it’s worth the gamble that it’s a causal link. If you’re right, various severely beneficial health effects and potentially protection from one cause of death. If you’re wrong... fewer beneficial health effects?
lukestateson 6y ago
Related study was published in October: "Vitamin D Status in Hospitalized Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection" https://academic.oup.com/jcem/advance-article/doi/10.1210/clinem/dgaa733/5934827 https://academic.oup.com/jcem/advance-article/doi/10.1210/cl...
Exmoor 6y ago
I must admit I was completely ignorant of the effects of Vitamin D deficiency on common illnesses such as the flu as well as how unbelievably common that deficiency is for people living in much of the northern hemisphere. Will it cure COVID19? No. But do I think there's a decent chance it will improve my outcome while simultaneously improving my ability to fight off other viruses. I am honestly completely shocked that we haven't seen governments and the media increasing people's awareness of this issue.
- Zenst 6y ago
  > I am honestly completely shocked that we haven't seen governments and the media increasing people's awareness of this issue. Same, and in the UK at least we got this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55108613 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55108613 I remember this back from April and lots of evidence back then: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCSXNGc7pfs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCSXNGc7pfs
- KLexpat 6y ago
  The problem is that vitamin D absorption is one of those things linked to ethnicity. It is very basic and undisputed science that lower melanin in skin = higher vitamin D absorption. No European educational institution or government wants to publicise research highlighting that ethnic groups indigenous to the northern hemisphere are more suited to the natural environment they are endemic too, and less likely to have vitamin D problems. Of course, the Vitamin D deficiency in people unsuited to non-indigenous European residents will naturally disadvantage them over time in nature. https://www.longdom.org/open-access/the-skin-melanin-an-inhibitor-of-vitamind3-biosynthesis-with-special-emphasis-with-structure-of-skin-a-mini-review.pdf https://www.longdom.org/open-access/the-skin-melanin-an-inhi... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4272394/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4272394/ To give balance to reinforce that i'm purely speaking from a scientific-rational viewpoint, in Australia the government is trying to discourage people from being in the sun at all due to Australia (primarily european ethnic) having one of the highest rates of skin cancer in the world, due to also not being suited to their natural environment. https://www.cancer.org.au/cancer-information/types-of-cancer/skin-cancer https://www.cancer.org.au/cancer-information/types-of-cancer... "the incidence of skin cancer is one of the highest in the world, two to three times the rates in Canada, the US and the UK." The USA approach is quite different though - pills for everyone! Buy your vitamin D plastic chips and watch the stock market go up!
  - Mountain_Skies 6y ago
    Wonder if there is also a connection with the declining popularity of cow's milk, which is typically fortified with vitamins A & D. In primary school, cow's milk have become less common due to increased awareness that different ethnic groups have different tolerances for lactose. Unfortunately, it appears the groups that would benefit the most from more vitamin D are also the ones most likely to be lactose intolerant, and thus not drinking the milk fortified with vitamin D.
fiblye 6y ago
Before the vitamin D link was so widely reported, I remember seeing a bunch of comments online (including HN) from people saying things along the lines of "We've been self-isolating at home since January, only bought things online, and STILL got sick!" I'm not a professional and this is just me spouting ideas, but I wonder if this is one reason why America is so hard hit compared to Asia. Americans generally commute by car, stay in a massive building complex all day for work, and go home and stay inside. In Asia, a huge proportion of people commute by foot, train (which involves walking to the station), or scooter. Then they walk to a grocery store or restaurant to get some food. I wonder if those minutes of continuous sun exposure add up and lighten the severity of it.
- the_cat_kittles 6y ago
  you can sanity-check your suspicion by looking at the data across countries. peru, spain, mexico and brazil should be enough to show that your idea is probably not correct
  - fiblye 6y ago
    Seems easy to rule out vitamin D if sunlight exposure isn't relevant at time of infection then.
- __oh_es 6y ago
  Unfortunately by this logic I don’t think Italy and the UK would’ve had the same affect
- nostromo 6y ago
  That wouldn't account for places like Spain and Italy that are both sunny and more pedestrian friendly that were hit harder than the US though. The theory that makes the most sense to me is that East Asia has had exposure to past viruses that were similar in nature but less lethal. > Tatsuhiko Kodama of the University of Tokyo said preliminary studies show that Japanese people’s immune systems tend to react to the novel coronavirus as though they had previous exposure, and notes that there are centuries of history of coronaviruses emerging from East Asia.[1] 1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/researchers-ponder-why-covid-appears-more-deadly-in-the-us-and-europe-than-in-asia/2020/05/26/81889d06-8a9f-11ea-9759-6d20ba0f2c0e_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/researchers-ponder-why-...
rgrieselhuber 6y ago
Getting sunlight in the morning, in particular, seems important. Even in winter months, I'll go outside for 30 minutes or so in nothing but shorts and do farmer walks, etc. and feel great throughout the day.
- dorfsmay 6y ago
  In winter, in the more northerly latitudes, being outside is not sufficient, because of the angle at which the sun ray hit, the skin cannot make vitamin D.
  - andi999 6y ago
    What is the correct angle?
    - dxdm 6y ago
      Closer to π/2 than not. ;)
    - jwilk 6y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effect_of_Sun_angle_on_climate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effect_of_Sun_angle_on_climate
  - bluthru 6y ago
    Yeah that's a good point. Going outside when the sun is high would probably allow that person to not resort to shorts.
  - stordoff 6y ago
    For instance in the UK: > At latitudes below 37ᵒN, UVB radiation is sufficient for year round vitamin D synthesis. At higher latitude, vitamin D is not synthesised during the winter months. In the UK, sunlight-induced vitamin D synthesis is only effective between late March/early April and September and not from October onwards throughout the winter months. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/537616/SACN_Vitamin_D_and_Health_report.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
meesterdude 6y ago
While I don't think Vitamin D is a covid cure - I think it's appalling that Youtube has banned anything that discusses vitamin D and covid. Especially when there is so much science behind it, and so much more that we need to do to understand it and covid better. I know there is rampant misinformation out there, but I fail to see how this censorship serves the public interest - and wonder what benefits google has to gain from this. People are dying from covid - we need to be firing on all cylinders, not trying to make a buck off a disaster.
- bmcahren 6y ago
  It's not always just public benefit. You have two choices: 1. Leave a video up published by a non-scientific person which has possibly harmful claims. 2. Take the video down, get decried for censorship, avoid spreading what we know is a problem right now: misinformation. I leave option 3, policing content out of the picture. People mistake what is happening now as policing but really it's avoiding policing what they are doing now. I am absolutely not on the side of just anyone with credentials being able to soapbox on platforms that don't want to spread misinformation whether it is or it isn't officially designated misinformation - better safe than sorry. I feel like I know the difference between band of fringe persons with Doctor in their name who have a controversial underdog belief and the official scientific sources for information.
  - tertius 6y ago
    > I feel like I know the difference between band of fringe persons with Doctor in their name who have a controversial underdog belief and the official scientific sources for information. Possibly true if you yourself had credentials. If not, don't be so sure. The funny problem with this one is that your local "official" memo is different from a local official memo 50, 500 and 5000 miles away. Do you believe you are at the locus of the best science? I have medical experts in my family all over the world... They disagree. They also agree though that the media is leading everyone (including politicians) around like puppets. I.e. they can see nonsense in the media being spouted, because they are experts.
  - newlikeice 6y ago
webwielder2 6y ago
I read an article a few years ago that postulated that Vitamin D itself (whatever it is) was only part of the Vitamin D story. Essentially, sunlight confers benefits that are associated with Vitamin D, but Vitamin D itself may not be the cause of those benefits. And so, supplements are not sufficient. Does anyone know enough to comment on that generally, and regarding COVID? Edit: here is the article https://www.outsideonline.com/2380751/sunscreen-sun-exposure-skin-cancer-science https://www.outsideonline.com/2380751/sunscreen-sun-exposure...
- nradov 6y ago
  Sunlight exposure stimulates nitric oxide production, which lowers blood pressure. High blood pressure is a significant risk factor for COVID-19. I suspect there might be a causative relationship.
- treis 6y ago
  Yes stories like this pop up all the time for lots of different diseases. There has never been a statistically significant large result observed. There's no way 90% of people dying from Covid would be saved by vitamin D supplements.
  - colechristensen 6y ago
    > There's no way 90% of people dying from Covid would be saved by vitamin D supplements. Why? I’m not saying the opposite is true, but there is evidence for a inverse relationship between respiratory infections and vitamin D levels. We should all believe things for reasons, what reason do you have for discounting the possibility?
    - treis 6y ago
      Because we've tried it for Covid and other diseases. The benefit is small at best. Certainly not anywhere near 90%.
- mixmastamyk 6y ago
  Many people can't get enough sunlight even if they wanted to, living at northern latitudes and/or cloudy areas. Eldery can't produce it from sunlight either. This information doesn't help them.
Mountain_Skies 6y ago
It's unfortunate that it is not simple to get regular tests for vitamin and mineral deficiencies. The whole process seems to be stuck behind the doctor appointment firewall. This might be one of the reasons why Theranos was so readily believed. As the quantified self movement that gained popularity around the same time showed, there's an appetite in certain segments of the population for this type of testing and tracking but the process isn't very transparent and often expensive due to it being a profit center. Make it a simple yearly subscription where you can stop in at any time at a clinic like a CVS Minute Clinic, get a blood sample drawn, and then get your results a couple of hours later. Maybe a limit of once a month or once every other week depending on your needs. Only if something is out of standard range would you need to involve a doctor. It would also be good for your next annual checkup to have an entire year's worth of such data.
- moonbug 6y ago
  It is, in the civilised world with functioning healthcare infrastrucure.
  - Mountain_Skies 6y ago
    What do you think was helpful in your snide comment?
    - eeZah7Ux 6y ago
      It reminds people that the world is not the US. 30+ comments above and nobody pointed out the unspoken assumption.
      - refurb 6y ago
        The OP mentioned the doctor firewall. I don’t live in the US and have the same firewall. It’s not a uniquely American issue.
        hungryforcodes 6y ago
LennyWhiteJr 6y ago
In case you live in a northern climate and want to catch some rays through a window. Glass filters >90% of the rays that cause vitamin D production.
- zamfi 6y ago
  Not only that, but a large fraction of the English-speaking northern hemisphere does not receive enough sunlight in winter months for the skin to produce Vitamin D.
  - aksss 6y ago
    I often arrive at our offices in the dark, and then leave after dark. In the meantime I'm in a windowed corner office but like others have said - filtered light. I take 10k IU's of vitamin D per day. Absent that, my natural (un-supplemented) vitamin D tests come back with a level about 20+ (30-100 being the desired range).
    - HelenePhisher 6y ago
      What are your levels when you use supplements?
- wyldfire 6y ago
  That's interesting, I was just wondering whether we get any benefit from ambient sunlight indoors. So you're saying 'yes' (a limited / very modest benefit). But how much sunlight do you need in order to saturate your vitamin D production? If I'm indoors in a room with a lot of windows all day, is that good enough?
  - zepto 6y ago
    No
Ragib_Zaman 6y ago
I highly recommend watching this video: https://youtu.be/Kvh4D_osFXs https://youtu.be/Kvh4D_osFXs Sunlight gives us vitamin D and nitric oxide (which improves blood flow and reduces hypertension). Vitamin D is crucial for the functioning of our immune systems, and the 1000IU dosage of many supplements is laughably small. A light skinned person in a singlet standing outside at noon for 30 minutes will produce between 10,000IU and 20,000IU in their skin. I would recommend supplementing 5,000IU vitamin D while also getting some exposure in the morning or afternoon (but avoiding the sun when it is high in the sky).
- lhl 6y ago
  The amount of UV exposure you get will differ significantly based on your latitude and time of year (and your skin type and weather of course). If anyone is serious enough to look into optimizing their sunlight exposure, I'd recommend playing around with these calculators to get an idea of what exposure is effective for you: https://fastrt.nilu.no/README_VitD_quartMEDandMED_v2.html https://fastrt.nilu.no/README_VitD_quartMEDandMED_v2.html
- moonbug 6y ago
  thanks for the medical advise, random tech guy.
- bagacrap 6y ago
  this is great advice for the summer, but doesn't work so well in the winter, when the UV index is a small fraction of summer values and air temps are not conducive to skin exposure.
- NiceWayToDoIT 6y ago
  Recently there was article/paper on HN about specific UV light wavelength from LED diodes that can produce very good response without daylight, creating significant amount of vitamin D. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-11362-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-11362-2 "The 293 nm LED was best suited for evaluating its effectiveness for producing vitamin D in human skin due to the shorter exposure time" I tried looking for that manufacturer/diode but it seems it is not commercially available. By now we should be able to buy a cheap lamp at any store maybe it would save some lives.
yborg 6y ago
>In other words, in an observational study design, it cannot be excluded that VitD deficiency represents a surrogate marker for a general micronutrient deficiency, which in turn reflects only the patient’s overall health status. From the authors of one of the cited papers. I.e. if you are in generally poor health already, COVID-19 is more likely to kill you.
akulbe 6y ago
What is the actual RDA for Vitamin D? There seems to be some dispute on it. Not sure who to trust.
- tertius 6y ago
  Depends on how well you absorb it personally. For instance, if you're deficient, you need more. If you're older you need more. If you have a darker skin color you need more. It's fairly hard to get toxicity (still to be avoided). I take 50k IU per week and is good enough for me. Fat soluble so don't need it every day. But, don't take my advice on specifics...
- dehrmann 6y ago
  I am not a doctor, but considering it's a hormone, I'd err on the side of less.
- jmalicki 6y ago
  Here is one reference, others I've seen are similar: https://ods.od.nih.gov/factsheets/VitaminD-HealthProfessional/ https://ods.od.nih.gov/factsheets/VitaminD-HealthProfessiona... There is not complete consensus, but a lot of the large deltas are due to Vitamin D being fat soluble - if you are deficient, you can take far higher doses for a while and they will be stored in your liver. But if you continue to do so once you are at good levels, it can do damage: "Hypercalcemia, in turn, can lead to nausea, vomiting, muscle weakness, neuropsychiatric disturbances, pain, loss of appetite, dehydration, polyuria, excessive thirst, and kidney stones." That paper's recommendations are 600IU RDA, and that it is safe to take up to 4000IU without supervision of a doctor (i.e. regular blood tests to make sure you're not overshooting recommended blood concentration). This paper suggests up to 10000IU is safe: https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/how-much-vitamin-d-is-too-much#TOC_TITLE_HDR_4 https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/how-much-vitamin-d-is-t... and that "A daily intake ranging from 40,000–100,000 IU (1000–2500 micrograms), for one to several months, has been shown to cause toxicity in humans" (with several case reports). Apparently Dr. Fauci takes 6000IU per day. https://vitamindwiki.com/Dr.+Fauci+takes+6%2C000+IU+of+Vitamin+D+daily+%E2%80%93+Sept+2020 https://vitamindwiki.com/Dr.+Fauci+takes+6%2C000+IU+of+Vitam... While these are different, 4000IU, 6000IU, and 10000IU are well within an order of magnitude as upper limits of what you can tolerate without side effects ("upper limits" being more than RDA, but won't cause a separate medical problem) I've seen some studies say that 5000IU or 10000IU is safe, differ a little bit about the normal RDA, but there's a ton of similar ranges.
andi999 6y ago
I remember that there also was the result that supplementing does not help if you have covid. So to me it looks just like correlation and not causation (old sick people do not go out often and have less vitamin D. Probably same reason while you can find health benifits for alcohol: sick people stop drinking )
- JoeAltmaier 6y ago
  Study adjusted for age, sex. So no.
  - JoeAltmaier 6y ago
    Folks, read the study!
  - loeg 6y ago
    There can be a 3rd variable other than age or sex!
- deelowe 6y ago
  Studies seem to be mixed. I've had a hard time finding any that looked at individuals who supplement. Most seem to focus on vitamin d at infection onset or during critical care which is too late. Vitamin D takes about a month of loading for it to have an effect. The one study I did find had a very small sample size.
- thatguy0900 6y ago
  Maybe it just takes a while for supplementation to actually raise your vitamin d levels
- geomark 6y ago
  Your comment reminded me of this Dilbert https://dilbert.com/strip/2014-05-09 https://dilbert.com/strip/2014-05-09
- madrox 6y ago
  Actual experiments for causation take more time. The abstract itself addresses this: "Given the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and the proven safety of vitamin D supplementation, it therefore appears highly debatable and potentially even unethical to await results of such trials before public health action is taken." I guess the real question is whether you'll wish you had been taking vitamin D if you get Covid-19. While this could end up being placebo, there's some compelling evidence that you have everything to gain and nothing to lose.
nradov 6y ago
This site has a comprehensive index of almost all the studies on Vitamin D and COVID-19. Before commenting here I highly recommend that everyone at least read the abstracts of all the linked articles. https://vitamin-d-covid.shotwell.ca/ https://vitamin-d-covid.shotwell.ca/
mrandish 6y ago
When the third supportive pre-print paper was released in late April I started my elderly mother on a D3 supplement. As more papers came out in May I started my whole family on it. I read up on dosing and it's pretty hard to overdose unless megadosing over a sustained period of time and negative reactions/interactions are rare. We've been supplementing ~5k to 10k IU daily (total, incl any multi-vitamins) depending on age/body weight (note: IU is not the same as mg). We also try to get 20-30m a day of actual sun exposure when possible. N=1 but so far no one in my family as gotten CV19 or even had any ILI symptoms despite some probable exposure. I got my blood run last month and my D3 is at 89mL (normal range is ~30-100 on my provider's test). While dietary supplementation is shown to be effective in studies, keep in mind that some experts believe sunlight generated D may be absorbed differently in ways that might matter, so getting some of both is ideal if possible. Sunlight supplementation scales with exposure duration * skin area * intensity, so less time can be partly offset with more area and/or peak time-of-day. Latitude, altitude and significant particulate air pollution can also matter. Also, be aware many common types of window glass in homes/autos as well as some sunblocks can reduce or block UV types which may contribute to the benefits. Of course, the usual warnings about consulting your medical provider and more of a good thing is not always 'better' apply, so be careful not to over do it. Although rare, some people who have megadosed huge amounts over long time periods (usually many times 10k IU daily) have built up potentially problematic amounts of D3.
- lame-robot-hoax 6y ago
  I wouldn’t worry too much about sunscreen. Don’t have the link, but I remember reading a study that sunscreen had pretty much a zero 0% effect on Vitamin D levels, because most people wear way less sunscreen than they should, and the left over areas that people miss still produce enough.
  - berryjerry 6y ago
    From a doctor I've heard you only need to go in the sun for about 10 minutes a day and you'll get all the vitamin D you need, but food also gives you it.
nikolay 6y ago
For 15 years, I've taken many supplements, which greatly varied over time, but the fixed ones, which I never had any concerns with were vitamin D3 (in the morning!) and chelated magnesium. At one point, I read warnings about high vitamin D levels, but I just lowered from 5,000 IU to 2,000 and I still have high, but still in the range levels.
- colechristensen 6y ago
  Likewise I had a broad panel of blood tests for a few reasons and my vitamin D levels came back at the top of the range so I reduced my dosage to reduce the risk of a bad outcome.
madrox 6y ago
I've been telling family and friends to take vitamin D supplements since the first of these kinds of studies came out. The data is hardly conclusive (case control bias, affect of supplementation vs natural production, etc), and the abstract here even points that out. However, there's nothing to lose...especially this time of year.
DevX101 6y ago
Authors controlled for age, sex. But I'd like to see additional control for race. Black people have less Vitamin D due to melanin blocking sunlight. And black people are disproportionately impacted by COVID. So I'm now curious whether it's really Vitamin D deficiency that's causing the poor outcomes, or some racial socioeconomic factor that Vitamin D is simply a marker for.
- alfalfasprout 6y ago
  That's key. In fact, I've long postulated that helps explain some of the racial differences we've seen in COVID deaths.
- DevX101 6y ago
  Took a closer look at the study and the patient population was from a small town in Germany, Heidelberg. It'd probably be a fair guess that there's not a lot of variation in the patients' ethnicity so in this particular case controlling by race probably wasn't necessary. This observation makes me more confident Vitamin D plays a role. In any event, good to review studies for potential issues like this.
  - MagnumOpus 6y ago
    > Heidelberg [...] not a lot of variation in the patients' ethnicity You'd be surprised. There might not be a lot of black people but Heidelberg is a university town and rather diverse. 27% are ethnic minorities, though only maybe 1% are black (4% Asian, 4% Russian/CIS, 3% southern Europe, 3% Turkey, 2% US-American, 2% Latin American, 2% Polish, 2% ex-Yugoslav)
- UShouldBWorking 6y ago
  Some very circumstantial evidence. I went to a black club 3 weeks ago for a night out. ( I know, stupid) 99% were not wearing masks and two days laters I stated feeling sick, was diagnosed with covid a week later.im better now but the black friend I went with last I heard was in the hospital.
- 55555 6y ago
xenophonf 6y ago
MDPI follows an author-pays model, which incentivizes it to accept all submissions instead of publishing only good-quality work. In fact, this publisher is highly suspect, as it has allegedly pressured peer reviewers to accept low-quality work for publication in the recent past: http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/09/open-access-editors-resign-after-alleged-pressure-publish-mediocre-papers http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/09/open-access-editors-r... https://www.universityaffairs.ca/features/feature-article/beware-academics-getting-reeled-scam-journals/ https://www.universityaffairs.ca/features/feature-article/be... I would treat this paper with, at most, the same skepticism as a preprint. Vitamin D supplementation is so easy and inexpensive, that if this correlation is truly that strong, I'd expect to see it in The Lancet or Nature or any one of the other mainstream journals.
- alfalfasprout 6y ago
  Well, you'd be surprised how much great research doesn't make it into Nature, et al. I wouldn't discount the paper purely because of that.
  - UShouldBWorking 6y ago
    Also, an actual peer reviewed paper came out recently that showed giving vitamin d to covid patients upon admitting them did not decrease death rates. I'll look for the link but it was front page here like two weeks ago.
    - coding123 6y ago
      Please find the link because about 2 / 3 months ago there was a story that was exactly the opposite finding. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24366006 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24366006 I've been monitoring HN for Vitamin D info very closely.
      - zamfi 6y ago
        I think the parent poster is referring to https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.16.20232397v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.16.20232397v... (Can't find the HN discussion link at the moment, unfortunately -- it didn't point to that particular link!) Worth noting that this RCT was for bolus supplementation of Vitamin D3 at some point in their hospital stay, and excluded patients already supplementing with D3. This study stands in stark contrast to the earlier pilot out of Spain: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub#bib0100 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096007602... -- though as noted, this was not D3 but rather Calcifediol (a D3 metabolite), and a much smaller study.
dwighttk 6y ago
Do Vitamin D headlines make it to the front page more than average or does it just seem that way?
- colechristensen 6y ago
  There is a strong signal to noise radio when it comes to the positive effectiveness of vitamin D. It has the benefits of being a common deficiency and having substantial weight behind positive effectiveness, low negative consequences, and being easy to acquire. People like the cure-all narrative, especially when even reasonable folk believe it has merit.
  - anoncake 6y ago
    Basically: In the best case, it's a cure-all. In the worst case, it's still a cure-something.
jugg1es 6y ago
Relatively small sample and, considering almost half of US citizens are vitamin D deficient, you can't rule out boring correlation (and not causation). EDIT: Why does HN have these downvote trolls? I was a bio major and was trained to critically analyze studies just like this. Skepticism is part of science. Why would you downvote my comment?!
- mixmastamyk 6y ago
  Lack of novelty I'd guess. This is said in every thread and story and your post doesn't add anything else.
mark-r 6y ago
My doctor put me on a daily 2000 IU vitamin D supplement years ago for unrelated reasons. I feel lucky now. I never did ask him what he expected the vitamin D to do for me.
- Markoff 6y ago
  the new studies show that 2000 IU is very low for active adult person it should be more like 6-8000 IU, the recommended values by conservative studies won't even diminish vitamin D deficiency let alone bring benefits of having extra levels
  - Markoff 6y ago
    study https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5541280/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5541280/ Thanks for downvoting!
    - mark-r 6y ago
      Thanks for the link. Just so you know, it wasn't my downvote - I don't think HN allows you to downvote replies to your own posts.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
fy20 6y ago
If Vitamin D had such a major effect, I would have expected death rates from Southern Europe (Spain, Italy specifically) to be a lot lower than from Northern Europe (e.g. UK, Germany). From my anecdotal experience people in Southern Europe spend a lot more time outside (in parts of Spain you can still go to the beach now, where I live there is snow on the ground...), and older people seem more active and able to live independent lives (i.e. not in a care home). Of course this doesn't mean Vitamin D isn't at play. The one thing this pandemic has taught me is it seems there is very little we know about how it works :-) Maybe production from sun exposure in older people drops greatly, so the difference in sun exposure has little effect on overall Vitamin D levels.
- lsllc 6y ago
  There was a large difference between northern and southern Italy described in this paper (from June so maybe things have changed since then). Note that northern Italy only has a slightly higher population density that the authors didn't think was significant. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13299 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13299
- mixmastamyk 6y ago
  Elderly can't produce vitamin D in the sunshine, they need supplementation. They also go outside a lot less than other ages even if they could.
throwaway5752 6y ago
Can't see the article. Did they control for obesity? You have a single factor highly correlated with low vitamin D serum concentrations, ACE2 expression, and comorbidities associated with covid-19 mortality.
waihtis 6y ago
I heard a different major factor from frontline healthcare workers - obesity. A vast majority of deaths in in the major hospital near myself has been obese people.
- nradov 6y ago
  Yes obesity is one of several confirmed risk factors. But this is a confounding factor for Vitamin D deficiency. Obese patients are more likely to be deficient because the hormone is fat soluble. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.25.20237776 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.25.20237776 It's disappointing that most public health agencies have taken a defeatist approach and focused exclusively on preventing disease transmission. No matter what precautions we take a lot of people are still going to get infected so there should be equal focus on practical steps that everyone can take to improve their survival odds.
bradenb 6y ago
When this started circulating a few months ago my wife and daughter decided to get their blood tested (I was already taking regular Vitamin D supplements). They both showed with extremely low levels of vitamin D and have since started taking 2000 IU daily to try and increase their levels. It's so cheap and easy that everyone should be doing it right now. Even if you don't want to get your blood tested, I think going on a supplement _now_ is right for everyone. But I guess each person should consult their doctor if they're concerned.
wraptile 6y ago
As someone with a constant vitamin D insufficiency I'd like to remind people that absorbtion is very difficult - you have to take it with a fatty meal! > The presence of fat in a meal with which a vitamin D-3 supplement is taken significantly enhances absorption of the supplement [1] 1 - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25441954 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25441954
- anoncake 6y ago
  Getting people to eat fatty meals doesn't sound very challenging.
  - calyth2018 6y ago
    Try older seniors with diabetes who have long since adapted to low fat, low sugar meals. Often rather bland stuff.
hoppla 6y ago
I would expect the death toll to be lower in sunny countries and higher in north. Italy and Spain was hit quite hard, but that was maybe because of a older population. But if D insufficiency is a leading factor, should you not see more deaths in the “younger” population in less sunny countries?
techoeopi 6y ago
The first vitamin D study showed that it reduced severe disease load by 96% (that is, if 100 hospitalized people would have been promoted to the ICU, but you gave them all vitamin D on first admission, 96 of them would no longer have to go to the ICU) Transmissability scales with disease severity; further, to a certain extent you could argue that making every disease a mild case would be the same as ending the disease (because oh no, you got a cold). Vitamin D supplementation, at about $10 every 3 months per person, would reduce that by 96% Meanwhile, the best vaccine being developed is claiming a 90% efficacy rate. Which means that if 100 people get exposed to covid, but they are all vaccinated, only 90 of them wouldn't get sick. Vitamin D turns 100 cases into 4 cases. Vaccine turns 100 cases into 10 cases. Vitamin D is ridiculously cheap. Vaccine development is not. But when the time comes, I'm going to use both.
hda111 6y ago
Will this nonsense never stop? Vitamin D doesn’t help at all. Why is this lie repeated daily?
throwawaysea 6y ago
If those who are unhealthy or have worse dietary practices are experiencing higher fatality rates, why should the rest of us be subject to harsh lockdowns, restricted from gatherings, and restricted from patronizing businesses? This feels to be like more evidence as to why individuals should be free to assess risks and decide how they want to act. Those who are risk averse or unhealthy or vulnerable can self isolate indefinitely if needed.
NicoJuicy 6y ago
I suppose this is confirmed with a 186 patients study on Belgium https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/139966/belgian-researchers-find-link-between-lack-of-vitamin-d-serious-covid-19-az-delta-roeselare-hospital-study-coronavirus-covid19-patients-increased-risk-severe-case-death-mortality-vitamin-d-deficiency/ https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/139966/belgian-researc...
mpcannabrava 6y ago
Please don't upvote this. [with all due respect to the OP] The one-page "paper" doesn't even mention stats for control group and what it does mention is completely inconclusive. BTW most people in the world who are quarantining have Vit D insufficiency/deficiency right now. PS.: just get your daily 15 min of sun to be safe.
underseacables 6y ago
Get your vitamin D checked, if you’re spending more than 30% of your time indoors, Which probably accounts for most people here, your vitamin D is deficient. Anything below 50 should be alarming.
- LinuxBender 6y ago
  Just to add to this, hydroxy-25 levels alone are not enough. Hopefully everyone's doctor also advises them what is a normal level for a healthy person and understands that people that are obese or have insulin resistance will deplete D3, C and Zinc faster due to the heavy load on their innate immune system dealing with low grade inflammation.
- woliveirajr 6y ago
  Anedocte: after I gave up folling recomendations from doctors that were happy after I just got from 17 to barely 25, I kept taking vitamin D and I'm aiming at 50. Asthma, severe allergic reactions (due to auto-immune), overall better hormone levels...
- abstractbarista 6y ago
  Doesn't it depend on what you eat too though? I'm inside a lot but also consume daily lots of stuff that contains high daily value of Vitamin D.
Fjolsvith 6y ago
Why not a vaccine that simply boosts Vitamin D production?
- anoncake 6y ago
  Because vaccines don't do that.
PHGamer 6y ago
so now that trump is gone people wanna admit this now. amusing.

426 points by voisin 6y ago

The big question is whether taking vitamin D supplements would address this, or whether having low vitamin D just happens to correlate with the real risk factors (sedentary, indoor lifestyle; unhealthy diet; obesity; etc.).

tertius 6y ago
Any of these studies include your metrics of interest? I.e. BMI, blood pressure etc.?
nucleardog 6y ago
That’s the obvious question that’s specifically raised as unanswered in all of these studies. But given the risks of supplementing vitamin D are about as close to zero as you can get it seems likely it’s worth the gamble that it’s a causal link. If you’re right, various severely beneficial health effects and potentially protection from one cause of death. If you’re wrong... fewer beneficial health effects?

lukestateson 6y ago

Related study was published in October: "Vitamin D Status in Hospitalized Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection" https://academic.oup.com/jcem/advance-article/doi/10.1210/clinem/dgaa733/5934827 https://academic.oup.com/jcem/advance-article/doi/10.1210/cl...

Exmoor 6y ago

I must admit I was completely ignorant of the effects of Vitamin D deficiency on common illnesses such as the flu as well as how unbelievably common that deficiency is for people living in much of the northern hemisphere. Will it cure COVID19? No. But do I think there's a decent chance it will improve my outcome while simultaneously improving my ability to fight off other viruses. I am honestly completely shocked that we haven't seen governments and the media increasing people's awareness of this issue.

Zenst 6y ago
> I am honestly completely shocked that we haven't seen governments and the media increasing people's awareness of this issue. Same, and in the UK at least we got this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55108613 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55108613 I remember this back from April and lots of evidence back then: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCSXNGc7pfs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCSXNGc7pfs
KLexpat 6y ago
The problem is that vitamin D absorption is one of those things linked to ethnicity. It is very basic and undisputed science that lower melanin in skin = higher vitamin D absorption. No European educational institution or government wants to publicise research highlighting that ethnic groups indigenous to the northern hemisphere are more suited to the natural environment they are endemic too, and less likely to have vitamin D problems. Of course, the Vitamin D deficiency in people unsuited to non-indigenous European residents will naturally disadvantage them over time in nature. https://www.longdom.org/open-access/the-skin-melanin-an-inhibitor-of-vitamind3-biosynthesis-with-special-emphasis-with-structure-of-skin-a-mini-review.pdf https://www.longdom.org/open-access/the-skin-melanin-an-inhi... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4272394/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4272394/ To give balance to reinforce that i'm purely speaking from a scientific-rational viewpoint, in Australia the government is trying to discourage people from being in the sun at all due to Australia (primarily european ethnic) having one of the highest rates of skin cancer in the world, due to also not being suited to their natural environment. https://www.cancer.org.au/cancer-information/types-of-cancer/skin-cancer https://www.cancer.org.au/cancer-information/types-of-cancer... "the incidence of skin cancer is one of the highest in the world, two to three times the rates in Canada, the US and the UK." The USA approach is quite different though - pills for everyone! Buy your vitamin D plastic chips and watch the stock market go up!
- Mountain_Skies 6y ago
  Wonder if there is also a connection with the declining popularity of cow's milk, which is typically fortified with vitamins A & D. In primary school, cow's milk have become less common due to increased awareness that different ethnic groups have different tolerances for lactose. Unfortunately, it appears the groups that would benefit the most from more vitamin D are also the ones most likely to be lactose intolerant, and thus not drinking the milk fortified with vitamin D.

fiblye 6y ago

Before the vitamin D link was so widely reported, I remember seeing a bunch of comments online (including HN) from people saying things along the lines of "We've been self-isolating at home since January, only bought things online, and STILL got sick!" I'm not a professional and this is just me spouting ideas, but I wonder if this is one reason why America is so hard hit compared to Asia. Americans generally commute by car, stay in a massive building complex all day for work, and go home and stay inside. In Asia, a huge proportion of people commute by foot, train (which involves walking to the station), or scooter. Then they walk to a grocery store or restaurant to get some food. I wonder if those minutes of continuous sun exposure add up and lighten the severity of it.

the_cat_kittles 6y ago
you can sanity-check your suspicion by looking at the data across countries. peru, spain, mexico and brazil should be enough to show that your idea is probably not correct
- fiblye 6y ago
  Seems easy to rule out vitamin D if sunlight exposure isn't relevant at time of infection then.
__oh_es 6y ago
Unfortunately by this logic I don’t think Italy and the UK would’ve had the same affect
nostromo 6y ago
That wouldn't account for places like Spain and Italy that are both sunny and more pedestrian friendly that were hit harder than the US though. The theory that makes the most sense to me is that East Asia has had exposure to past viruses that were similar in nature but less lethal. > Tatsuhiko Kodama of the University of Tokyo said preliminary studies show that Japanese people’s immune systems tend to react to the novel coronavirus as though they had previous exposure, and notes that there are centuries of history of coronaviruses emerging from East Asia.[1] 1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/researchers-ponder-why-covid-appears-more-deadly-in-the-us-and-europe-than-in-asia/2020/05/26/81889d06-8a9f-11ea-9759-6d20ba0f2c0e_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/researchers-ponder-why-...

rgrieselhuber 6y ago

Getting sunlight in the morning, in particular, seems important. Even in winter months, I'll go outside for 30 minutes or so in nothing but shorts and do farmer walks, etc. and feel great throughout the day.

dorfsmay 6y ago
In winter, in the more northerly latitudes, being outside is not sufficient, because of the angle at which the sun ray hit, the skin cannot make vitamin D.
- andi999 6y ago
  What is the correct angle?
  - dxdm 6y ago
    Closer to π/2 than not. ;)
  - jwilk 6y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effect_of_Sun_angle_on_climate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effect_of_Sun_angle_on_climate
- bluthru 6y ago
  Yeah that's a good point. Going outside when the sun is high would probably allow that person to not resort to shorts.
- stordoff 6y ago
  For instance in the UK: > At latitudes below 37ᵒN, UVB radiation is sufficient for year round vitamin D synthesis. At higher latitude, vitamin D is not synthesised during the winter months. In the UK, sunlight-induced vitamin D synthesis is only effective between late March/early April and September and not from October onwards throughout the winter months. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/537616/SACN_Vitamin_D_and_Health_report.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

meesterdude 6y ago

While I don't think Vitamin D is a covid cure - I think it's appalling that Youtube has banned anything that discusses vitamin D and covid. Especially when there is so much science behind it, and so much more that we need to do to understand it and covid better. I know there is rampant misinformation out there, but I fail to see how this censorship serves the public interest - and wonder what benefits google has to gain from this. People are dying from covid - we need to be firing on all cylinders, not trying to make a buck off a disaster.

bmcahren 6y ago
It's not always just public benefit. You have two choices: 1. Leave a video up published by a non-scientific person which has possibly harmful claims. 2. Take the video down, get decried for censorship, avoid spreading what we know is a problem right now: misinformation. I leave option 3, policing content out of the picture. People mistake what is happening now as policing but really it's avoiding policing what they are doing now. I am absolutely not on the side of just anyone with credentials being able to soapbox on platforms that don't want to spread misinformation whether it is or it isn't officially designated misinformation - better safe than sorry. I feel like I know the difference between band of fringe persons with Doctor in their name who have a controversial underdog belief and the official scientific sources for information.
- tertius 6y ago
  > I feel like I know the difference between band of fringe persons with Doctor in their name who have a controversial underdog belief and the official scientific sources for information. Possibly true if you yourself had credentials. If not, don't be so sure. The funny problem with this one is that your local "official" memo is different from a local official memo 50, 500 and 5000 miles away. Do you believe you are at the locus of the best science? I have medical experts in my family all over the world... They disagree. They also agree though that the media is leading everyone (including politicians) around like puppets. I.e. they can see nonsense in the media being spouted, because they are experts.
- newlikeice 6y ago

webwielder2 6y ago

I read an article a few years ago that postulated that Vitamin D itself (whatever it is) was only part of the Vitamin D story. Essentially, sunlight confers benefits that are associated with Vitamin D, but Vitamin D itself may not be the cause of those benefits. And so, supplements are not sufficient. Does anyone know enough to comment on that generally, and regarding COVID? Edit: here is the article https://www.outsideonline.com/2380751/sunscreen-sun-exposure-skin-cancer-science https://www.outsideonline.com/2380751/sunscreen-sun-exposure...

nradov 6y ago
Sunlight exposure stimulates nitric oxide production, which lowers blood pressure. High blood pressure is a significant risk factor for COVID-19. I suspect there might be a causative relationship.
treis 6y ago
Yes stories like this pop up all the time for lots of different diseases. There has never been a statistically significant large result observed. There's no way 90% of people dying from Covid would be saved by vitamin D supplements.
- colechristensen 6y ago
  > There's no way 90% of people dying from Covid would be saved by vitamin D supplements. Why? I’m not saying the opposite is true, but there is evidence for a inverse relationship between respiratory infections and vitamin D levels. We should all believe things for reasons, what reason do you have for discounting the possibility?
  - treis 6y ago
    Because we've tried it for Covid and other diseases. The benefit is small at best. Certainly not anywhere near 90%.
mixmastamyk 6y ago
Many people can't get enough sunlight even if they wanted to, living at northern latitudes and/or cloudy areas. Eldery can't produce it from sunlight either. This information doesn't help them.

Mountain_Skies 6y ago

It's unfortunate that it is not simple to get regular tests for vitamin and mineral deficiencies. The whole process seems to be stuck behind the doctor appointment firewall. This might be one of the reasons why Theranos was so readily believed. As the quantified self movement that gained popularity around the same time showed, there's an appetite in certain segments of the population for this type of testing and tracking but the process isn't very transparent and often expensive due to it being a profit center. Make it a simple yearly subscription where you can stop in at any time at a clinic like a CVS Minute Clinic, get a blood sample drawn, and then get your results a couple of hours later. Maybe a limit of once a month or once every other week depending on your needs. Only if something is out of standard range would you need to involve a doctor. It would also be good for your next annual checkup to have an entire year's worth of such data.

moonbug 6y ago
It is, in the civilised world with functioning healthcare infrastrucure.
- Mountain_Skies 6y ago
  What do you think was helpful in your snide comment?
  - eeZah7Ux 6y ago
    It reminds people that the world is not the US. 30+ comments above and nobody pointed out the unspoken assumption.
    - refurb 6y ago
      The OP mentioned the doctor firewall. I don’t live in the US and have the same firewall. It’s not a uniquely American issue.
      - hungryforcodes 6y ago

LennyWhiteJr 6y ago

In case you live in a northern climate and want to catch some rays through a window. Glass filters >90% of the rays that cause vitamin D production.

zamfi 6y ago
Not only that, but a large fraction of the English-speaking northern hemisphere does not receive enough sunlight in winter months for the skin to produce Vitamin D.
- aksss 6y ago
  I often arrive at our offices in the dark, and then leave after dark. In the meantime I'm in a windowed corner office but like others have said - filtered light. I take 10k IU's of vitamin D per day. Absent that, my natural (un-supplemented) vitamin D tests come back with a level about 20+ (30-100 being the desired range).
  - HelenePhisher 6y ago
    What are your levels when you use supplements?
wyldfire 6y ago
That's interesting, I was just wondering whether we get any benefit from ambient sunlight indoors. So you're saying 'yes' (a limited / very modest benefit). But how much sunlight do you need in order to saturate your vitamin D production? If I'm indoors in a room with a lot of windows all day, is that good enough?
- zepto 6y ago
  No

Ragib_Zaman 6y ago

I highly recommend watching this video: https://youtu.be/Kvh4D_osFXs https://youtu.be/Kvh4D_osFXs Sunlight gives us vitamin D and nitric oxide (which improves blood flow and reduces hypertension). Vitamin D is crucial for the functioning of our immune systems, and the 1000IU dosage of many supplements is laughably small. A light skinned person in a singlet standing outside at noon for 30 minutes will produce between 10,000IU and 20,000IU in their skin. I would recommend supplementing 5,000IU vitamin D while also getting some exposure in the morning or afternoon (but avoiding the sun when it is high in the sky).

lhl 6y ago
The amount of UV exposure you get will differ significantly based on your latitude and time of year (and your skin type and weather of course). If anyone is serious enough to look into optimizing their sunlight exposure, I'd recommend playing around with these calculators to get an idea of what exposure is effective for you: https://fastrt.nilu.no/README_VitD_quartMEDandMED_v2.html https://fastrt.nilu.no/README_VitD_quartMEDandMED_v2.html
moonbug 6y ago
thanks for the medical advise, random tech guy.
bagacrap 6y ago
this is great advice for the summer, but doesn't work so well in the winter, when the UV index is a small fraction of summer values and air temps are not conducive to skin exposure.
NiceWayToDoIT 6y ago
Recently there was article/paper on HN about specific UV light wavelength from LED diodes that can produce very good response without daylight, creating significant amount of vitamin D. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-11362-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-11362-2 "The 293 nm LED was best suited for evaluating its effectiveness for producing vitamin D in human skin due to the shorter exposure time" I tried looking for that manufacturer/diode but it seems it is not commercially available. By now we should be able to buy a cheap lamp at any store maybe it would save some lives.

yborg 6y ago

>In other words, in an observational study design, it cannot be excluded that VitD deficiency represents a surrogate marker for a general micronutrient deficiency, which in turn reflects only the patient’s overall health status. From the authors of one of the cited papers. I.e. if you are in generally poor health already, COVID-19 is more likely to kill you.

akulbe 6y ago

What is the actual RDA for Vitamin D? There seems to be some dispute on it. Not sure who to trust.

tertius 6y ago
Depends on how well you absorb it personally. For instance, if you're deficient, you need more. If you're older you need more. If you have a darker skin color you need more. It's fairly hard to get toxicity (still to be avoided). I take 50k IU per week and is good enough for me. Fat soluble so don't need it every day. But, don't take my advice on specifics...
dehrmann 6y ago
I am not a doctor, but considering it's a hormone, I'd err on the side of less.
jmalicki 6y ago
Here is one reference, others I've seen are similar: https://ods.od.nih.gov/factsheets/VitaminD-HealthProfessional/ https://ods.od.nih.gov/factsheets/VitaminD-HealthProfessiona... There is not complete consensus, but a lot of the large deltas are due to Vitamin D being fat soluble - if you are deficient, you can take far higher doses for a while and they will be stored in your liver. But if you continue to do so once you are at good levels, it can do damage: "Hypercalcemia, in turn, can lead to nausea, vomiting, muscle weakness, neuropsychiatric disturbances, pain, loss of appetite, dehydration, polyuria, excessive thirst, and kidney stones." That paper's recommendations are 600IU RDA, and that it is safe to take up to 4000IU without supervision of a doctor (i.e. regular blood tests to make sure you're not overshooting recommended blood concentration). This paper suggests up to 10000IU is safe: https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/how-much-vitamin-d-is-too-much#TOC_TITLE_HDR_4 https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/how-much-vitamin-d-is-t... and that "A daily intake ranging from 40,000–100,000 IU (1000–2500 micrograms), for one to several months, has been shown to cause toxicity in humans" (with several case reports). Apparently Dr. Fauci takes 6000IU per day. https://vitamindwiki.com/Dr.+Fauci+takes+6%2C000+IU+of+Vitamin+D+daily+%E2%80%93+Sept+2020 https://vitamindwiki.com/Dr.+Fauci+takes+6%2C000+IU+of+Vitam... While these are different, 4000IU, 6000IU, and 10000IU are well within an order of magnitude as upper limits of what you can tolerate without side effects ("upper limits" being more than RDA, but won't cause a separate medical problem) I've seen some studies say that 5000IU or 10000IU is safe, differ a little bit about the normal RDA, but there's a ton of similar ranges.

andi999 6y ago

I remember that there also was the result that supplementing does not help if you have covid. So to me it looks just like correlation and not causation (old sick people do not go out often and have less vitamin D. Probably same reason while you can find health benifits for alcohol: sick people stop drinking )

JoeAltmaier 6y ago
Study adjusted for age, sex. So no.
- JoeAltmaier 6y ago
  Folks, read the study!
- loeg 6y ago
  There can be a 3rd variable other than age or sex!
deelowe 6y ago
Studies seem to be mixed. I've had a hard time finding any that looked at individuals who supplement. Most seem to focus on vitamin d at infection onset or during critical care which is too late. Vitamin D takes about a month of loading for it to have an effect. The one study I did find had a very small sample size.
thatguy0900 6y ago
Maybe it just takes a while for supplementation to actually raise your vitamin d levels
geomark 6y ago
Your comment reminded me of this Dilbert https://dilbert.com/strip/2014-05-09 https://dilbert.com/strip/2014-05-09
madrox 6y ago
Actual experiments for causation take more time. The abstract itself addresses this: "Given the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and the proven safety of vitamin D supplementation, it therefore appears highly debatable and potentially even unethical to await results of such trials before public health action is taken." I guess the real question is whether you'll wish you had been taking vitamin D if you get Covid-19. While this could end up being placebo, there's some compelling evidence that you have everything to gain and nothing to lose.

nradov 6y ago

This site has a comprehensive index of almost all the studies on Vitamin D and COVID-19. Before commenting here I highly recommend that everyone at least read the abstracts of all the linked articles. https://vitamin-d-covid.shotwell.ca/ https://vitamin-d-covid.shotwell.ca/

mrandish 6y ago

When the third supportive pre-print paper was released in late April I started my elderly mother on a D3 supplement. As more papers came out in May I started my whole family on it. I read up on dosing and it's pretty hard to overdose unless megadosing over a sustained period of time and negative reactions/interactions are rare. We've been supplementing ~5k to 10k IU daily (total, incl any multi-vitamins) depending on age/body weight (note: IU is not the same as mg). We also try to get 20-30m a day of actual sun exposure when possible. N=1 but so far no one in my family as gotten CV19 or even had any ILI symptoms despite some probable exposure. I got my blood run last month and my D3 is at 89mL (normal range is ~30-100 on my provider's test). While dietary supplementation is shown to be effective in studies, keep in mind that some experts believe sunlight generated D may be absorbed differently in ways that might matter, so getting some of both is ideal if possible. Sunlight supplementation scales with exposure duration * skin area * intensity, so less time can be partly offset with more area and/or peak time-of-day. Latitude, altitude and significant particulate air pollution can also matter. Also, be aware many common types of window glass in homes/autos as well as some sunblocks can reduce or block UV types which may contribute to the benefits. Of course, the usual warnings about consulting your medical provider and more of a good thing is not always 'better' apply, so be careful not to over do it. Although rare, some people who have megadosed huge amounts over long time periods (usually many times 10k IU daily) have built up potentially problematic amounts of D3.

lame-robot-hoax 6y ago
I wouldn’t worry too much about sunscreen. Don’t have the link, but I remember reading a study that sunscreen had pretty much a zero 0% effect on Vitamin D levels, because most people wear way less sunscreen than they should, and the left over areas that people miss still produce enough.
- berryjerry 6y ago
  From a doctor I've heard you only need to go in the sun for about 10 minutes a day and you'll get all the vitamin D you need, but food also gives you it.

nikolay 6y ago

For 15 years, I've taken many supplements, which greatly varied over time, but the fixed ones, which I never had any concerns with were vitamin D3 (in the morning!) and chelated magnesium. At one point, I read warnings about high vitamin D levels, but I just lowered from 5,000 IU to 2,000 and I still have high, but still in the range levels.

colechristensen 6y ago
Likewise I had a broad panel of blood tests for a few reasons and my vitamin D levels came back at the top of the range so I reduced my dosage to reduce the risk of a bad outcome.

madrox 6y ago

I've been telling family and friends to take vitamin D supplements since the first of these kinds of studies came out. The data is hardly conclusive (case control bias, affect of supplementation vs natural production, etc), and the abstract here even points that out. However, there's nothing to lose...especially this time of year.

DevX101 6y ago

Authors controlled for age, sex. But I'd like to see additional control for race. Black people have less Vitamin D due to melanin blocking sunlight. And black people are disproportionately impacted by COVID. So I'm now curious whether it's really Vitamin D deficiency that's causing the poor outcomes, or some racial socioeconomic factor that Vitamin D is simply a marker for.

alfalfasprout 6y ago
That's key. In fact, I've long postulated that helps explain some of the racial differences we've seen in COVID deaths.
DevX101 6y ago
Took a closer look at the study and the patient population was from a small town in Germany, Heidelberg. It'd probably be a fair guess that there's not a lot of variation in the patients' ethnicity so in this particular case controlling by race probably wasn't necessary. This observation makes me more confident Vitamin D plays a role. In any event, good to review studies for potential issues like this.
- MagnumOpus 6y ago
  > Heidelberg [...] not a lot of variation in the patients' ethnicity You'd be surprised. There might not be a lot of black people but Heidelberg is a university town and rather diverse. 27% are ethnic minorities, though only maybe 1% are black (4% Asian, 4% Russian/CIS, 3% southern Europe, 3% Turkey, 2% US-American, 2% Latin American, 2% Polish, 2% ex-Yugoslav)
UShouldBWorking 6y ago
Some very circumstantial evidence. I went to a black club 3 weeks ago for a night out. ( I know, stupid) 99% were not wearing masks and two days laters I stated feeling sick, was diagnosed with covid a week later.im better now but the black friend I went with last I heard was in the hospital.
55555 6y ago

xenophonf 6y ago

MDPI follows an author-pays model, which incentivizes it to accept all submissions instead of publishing only good-quality work. In fact, this publisher is highly suspect, as it has allegedly pressured peer reviewers to accept low-quality work for publication in the recent past: http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/09/open-access-editors-resign-after-alleged-pressure-publish-mediocre-papers http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/09/open-access-editors-r... https://www.universityaffairs.ca/features/feature-article/beware-academics-getting-reeled-scam-journals/ https://www.universityaffairs.ca/features/feature-article/be... I would treat this paper with, at most, the same skepticism as a preprint. Vitamin D supplementation is so easy and inexpensive, that if this correlation is truly that strong, I'd expect to see it in The Lancet or Nature or any one of the other mainstream journals.

alfalfasprout 6y ago
Well, you'd be surprised how much great research doesn't make it into Nature, et al. I wouldn't discount the paper purely because of that.
- UShouldBWorking 6y ago
  Also, an actual peer reviewed paper came out recently that showed giving vitamin d to covid patients upon admitting them did not decrease death rates. I'll look for the link but it was front page here like two weeks ago.
  - coding123 6y ago
    Please find the link because about 2 / 3 months ago there was a story that was exactly the opposite finding. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24366006 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24366006 I've been monitoring HN for Vitamin D info very closely.
    - zamfi 6y ago
      I think the parent poster is referring to https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.16.20232397v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.16.20232397v... (Can't find the HN discussion link at the moment, unfortunately -- it didn't point to that particular link!) Worth noting that this RCT was for bolus supplementation of Vitamin D3 at some point in their hospital stay, and excluded patients already supplementing with D3. This study stands in stark contrast to the earlier pilot out of Spain: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub#bib0100 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096007602... -- though as noted, this was not D3 but rather Calcifediol (a D3 metabolite), and a much smaller study.

dwighttk 6y ago

Do Vitamin D headlines make it to the front page more than average or does it just seem that way?

colechristensen 6y ago
There is a strong signal to noise radio when it comes to the positive effectiveness of vitamin D. It has the benefits of being a common deficiency and having substantial weight behind positive effectiveness, low negative consequences, and being easy to acquire. People like the cure-all narrative, especially when even reasonable folk believe it has merit.
- anoncake 6y ago
  Basically: In the best case, it's a cure-all. In the worst case, it's still a cure-something.

jugg1es 6y ago

Relatively small sample and, considering almost half of US citizens are vitamin D deficient, you can't rule out boring correlation (and not causation). EDIT: Why does HN have these downvote trolls? I was a bio major and was trained to critically analyze studies just like this. Skepticism is part of science. Why would you downvote my comment?!

mixmastamyk 6y ago
Lack of novelty I'd guess. This is said in every thread and story and your post doesn't add anything else.

mark-r 6y ago

My doctor put me on a daily 2000 IU vitamin D supplement years ago for unrelated reasons. I feel lucky now. I never did ask him what he expected the vitamin D to do for me.

Markoff 6y ago
the new studies show that 2000 IU is very low for active adult person it should be more like 6-8000 IU, the recommended values by conservative studies won't even diminish vitamin D deficiency let alone bring benefits of having extra levels
- Markoff 6y ago
  study https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5541280/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5541280/ Thanks for downvoting!
  - mark-r 6y ago
    Thanks for the link. Just so you know, it wasn't my downvote - I don't think HN allows you to downvote replies to your own posts.

deleted 6y ago

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fy20 6y ago

If Vitamin D had such a major effect, I would have expected death rates from Southern Europe (Spain, Italy specifically) to be a lot lower than from Northern Europe (e.g. UK, Germany). From my anecdotal experience people in Southern Europe spend a lot more time outside (in parts of Spain you can still go to the beach now, where I live there is snow on the ground...), and older people seem more active and able to live independent lives (i.e. not in a care home). Of course this doesn't mean Vitamin D isn't at play. The one thing this pandemic has taught me is it seems there is very little we know about how it works :-) Maybe production from sun exposure in older people drops greatly, so the difference in sun exposure has little effect on overall Vitamin D levels.

lsllc 6y ago
There was a large difference between northern and southern Italy described in this paper (from June so maybe things have changed since then). Note that northern Italy only has a slightly higher population density that the authors didn't think was significant. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13299 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13299
mixmastamyk 6y ago
Elderly can't produce vitamin D in the sunshine, they need supplementation. They also go outside a lot less than other ages even if they could.

throwaway5752 6y ago

Can't see the article. Did they control for obesity? You have a single factor highly correlated with low vitamin D serum concentrations, ACE2 expression, and comorbidities associated with covid-19 mortality.

waihtis 6y ago

I heard a different major factor from frontline healthcare workers - obesity. A vast majority of deaths in in the major hospital near myself has been obese people.

nradov 6y ago
Yes obesity is one of several confirmed risk factors. But this is a confounding factor for Vitamin D deficiency. Obese patients are more likely to be deficient because the hormone is fat soluble. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.25.20237776 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.25.20237776 It's disappointing that most public health agencies have taken a defeatist approach and focused exclusively on preventing disease transmission. No matter what precautions we take a lot of people are still going to get infected so there should be equal focus on practical steps that everyone can take to improve their survival odds.

bradenb 6y ago

When this started circulating a few months ago my wife and daughter decided to get their blood tested (I was already taking regular Vitamin D supplements). They both showed with extremely low levels of vitamin D and have since started taking 2000 IU daily to try and increase their levels. It's so cheap and easy that everyone should be doing it right now. Even if you don't want to get your blood tested, I think going on a supplement _now_ is right for everyone. But I guess each person should consult their doctor if they're concerned.

wraptile 6y ago

As someone with a constant vitamin D insufficiency I'd like to remind people that absorbtion is very difficult - you have to take it with a fatty meal! > The presence of fat in a meal with which a vitamin D-3 supplement is taken significantly enhances absorption of the supplement [1] 1 - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25441954 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25441954

anoncake 6y ago
Getting people to eat fatty meals doesn't sound very challenging.
- calyth2018 6y ago
  Try older seniors with diabetes who have long since adapted to low fat, low sugar meals. Often rather bland stuff.

hoppla 6y ago

I would expect the death toll to be lower in sunny countries and higher in north. Italy and Spain was hit quite hard, but that was maybe because of a older population. But if D insufficiency is a leading factor, should you not see more deaths in the “younger” population in less sunny countries?

techoeopi 6y ago

The first vitamin D study showed that it reduced severe disease load by 96% (that is, if 100 hospitalized people would have been promoted to the ICU, but you gave them all vitamin D on first admission, 96 of them would no longer have to go to the ICU) Transmissability scales with disease severity; further, to a certain extent you could argue that making every disease a mild case would be the same as ending the disease (because oh no, you got a cold). Vitamin D supplementation, at about $10 every 3 months per person, would reduce that by 96% Meanwhile, the best vaccine being developed is claiming a 90% efficacy rate. Which means that if 100 people get exposed to covid, but they are all vaccinated, only 90 of them wouldn't get sick. Vitamin D turns 100 cases into 4 cases. Vaccine turns 100 cases into 10 cases. Vitamin D is ridiculously cheap. Vaccine development is not. But when the time comes, I'm going to use both.

hda111 6y ago

Will this nonsense never stop? Vitamin D doesn’t help at all. Why is this lie repeated daily?

throwawaysea 6y ago

If those who are unhealthy or have worse dietary practices are experiencing higher fatality rates, why should the rest of us be subject to harsh lockdowns, restricted from gatherings, and restricted from patronizing businesses? This feels to be like more evidence as to why individuals should be free to assess risks and decide how they want to act. Those who are risk averse or unhealthy or vulnerable can self isolate indefinitely if needed.

NicoJuicy 6y ago

I suppose this is confirmed with a 186 patients study on Belgium https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/139966/belgian-researchers-find-link-between-lack-of-vitamin-d-serious-covid-19-az-delta-roeselare-hospital-study-coronavirus-covid19-patients-increased-risk-severe-case-death-mortality-vitamin-d-deficiency/ https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/139966/belgian-researc...

mpcannabrava 6y ago

Please don't upvote this. [with all due respect to the OP] The one-page "paper" doesn't even mention stats for control group and what it does mention is completely inconclusive. BTW most people in the world who are quarantining have Vit D insufficiency/deficiency right now. PS.: just get your daily 15 min of sun to be safe.

underseacables 6y ago

Get your vitamin D checked, if you’re spending more than 30% of your time indoors, Which probably accounts for most people here, your vitamin D is deficient. Anything below 50 should be alarming.

LinuxBender 6y ago
Just to add to this, hydroxy-25 levels alone are not enough. Hopefully everyone's doctor also advises them what is a normal level for a healthy person and understands that people that are obese or have insulin resistance will deplete D3, C and Zinc faster due to the heavy load on their innate immune system dealing with low grade inflammation.
woliveirajr 6y ago
Anedocte: after I gave up folling recomendations from doctors that were happy after I just got from 17 to barely 25, I kept taking vitamin D and I'm aiming at 50. Asthma, severe allergic reactions (due to auto-immune), overall better hormone levels...
abstractbarista 6y ago
Doesn't it depend on what you eat too though? I'm inside a lot but also consume daily lots of stuff that contains high daily value of Vitamin D.

Fjolsvith 6y ago

Why not a vaccine that simply boosts Vitamin D production?

anoncake 6y ago
Because vaccines don't do that.

PHGamer 6y ago

so now that trump is gone people wanna admit this now. amusing.