5 ms·

The Reason Renewables Can't Power Civilization Is Because They Weren't Meant To

17 points by olivermarks 6y ago

gulbanana 6y ago
at no point does the author attempt to substantiate his argument
hndamien 6y ago
https://www.desmogblog.com/michael-shellenberger https://www.desmogblog.com/michael-shellenberger
- olivermarks 6y ago
  https://www.hoggan.com https://www.hoggan.com
  - hndamien 6y ago
    I'm probably going to need some help with the connection here.
    - olivermarks 6y ago
      desmog blog is run by this green energy pr company
mchusma 6y ago
There are plausible criticisms, but the idea that it is simply not possible to power the world with solar, nuclear other renewables and battery is absurd. Most of his arguments seem to be against wind, where his arguments are strongest. First, unsubsidized solar is the absolute cheapest form of energy for most of the world right now. While there are regions of the world this won't work well, solar is the energy source to beat right now. Next, the physics is against him most energy is basically fusion (in the sun) -> solar collectors -> biomass -> petroleum. Each phase incurs losses, so using solar now is much better than letting the sun grow things and waiting thousands of years for us to use it in oil (which is the natural implication of what he is stating). Directly getting energy from fusion is better, but we aren't there yet (hopefully soon).
- henry_bone 6y ago
  He did not say nuclear. He is an advocate of nuclear, but when talking about Germany's renewables, nuclear is not what he was talking about.
- oopsiforgot7 6y ago
  Solar has a reverse economies of scale problem: the more we build, the bigger the fraction of power comes from solar, the more urgent the issue of storage becomes. We should keep building until it becomes a problem, I suppose, but also hopefully prepare solutions before it hits.
stubish 6y ago
> All of which raises a question: if renewables can’t cheaply power Germany, one of the richest and most technologically advanced countries in the world, how could a developing nation like Kenya ever expect them to allow it to “leapfrog” fossil fuels? None of the problems claimed to affect Germany are applicable to Kenya. Indeed, the lack of existing infrastructure in Kenya probably tips the balance way in favor of renewables, using localized power generation rather than centralized and the massive grid projects Germany is claimed to be having problems with. You can bootstrap power in remote regions much easier with renewables by plonking down a few solar cells and a battery, and it scales right down to a single cell tower. Unlike fossil fuel, where you need an energy grid or trucking in fuel. And are renewable energy plants still killing more birds than alternatives? I thought that argument lost validity about 30 years ago and is now just a bullshit flag? Sorry about Germany if the problems are true. In other parts of the rich western world things are going fine and in a few regions 100% renewable and exporting power. Suggest to the author to learn from the successes, not just the failures.
- AtlasBarfed 6y ago
  glass skyscrapers kill far more birds. Buildings overall kill 550 million per year Wind turbines? 28,000 https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/documents/psw_gtr191/psw_gtr191_1029-1042_erickson.pdf https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/documents/psw_gtr191/... page 10ish
  - tuatoru 6y ago
    Domestic and feral ex-domestic cats kill far more birds than either. If this is a real concern, banning cat ownership is top of the list.
    - jollofricepeas 6y ago
      Source? Or is HN now Newsmax where evidence isn’t needed and statements alone serve as “facts”?
      - 6y ago
nitsuaeekcm 6y ago
An incredible article. The author pulls out all the emotional stops against some environmentally conscious elite he dislikes: > Heidegger, like much of the conservation movement, would have hated what the Energiewende has become: an excuse for the destruction of natural landscapes and local communities. > Opposition to renewables comes from the country peoples that Heidegger idolized as more authentic and “grounded” than urbane cosmopolitan elites who fetishize their solar roofs and Teslas as signs of virtue. And yet, in an entire article written about a country’s investments in clean energy, there’s not a single mention of climate change, carbon emissions, or any of the reasons why I at least thought we were fighting to keep the fossil fuels in the ground. And the author’s grand data-backed argument, showing why renewables are forever doomed? > But no amount of marketing could change the poor physics of resource-intensive and land-intensive renewables. Solar farms take 450 times more land than nuclear plants, and wind farms take 700 times more land than natural gas wells, to produce the same amount of energy. He places us on a playing field of energy per unit area, which could likely win the title of least useful metric of the year. I think everyone agrees there is a lot to be criticized and learned from with the Energiewende, but the axes on which this article analyzes it make no sense.
- pksebben 6y ago
  The axes on which this article turns make perfect sense - namely, those of the shamelessly pro-business bias that this joker is pandering to. Click through to the rest of his work. I would be astounded to learn he isn't receiving a paycheck from an exxon-funded think tank.
onecommentman 6y ago
A bit of US historical perspective. In the 1970s, the OPEC energy crisis prompted the Feds to push for renewables in a big way. The talk at the time about its environment benefits were probably one of the first examples of greenwashing. The push for conservation probably made a bigger environment impact with efficiency improvements in cars and the like. The real concern was reliable access to energy and robustness of the economy to shocks caused by oil/gas disruptions. Energy independence for the US, and secondarily for US allies. Has been and continues to be the de facto US government’s top priority in energy policy AFAIK. You can see that sustained support reflected in the continual incremental performance improvement in solar and wind tech. That sort of thing happens with major tech commitments over many years. Solar and wind are the “hyperlocal organic food-secure produce” of energy technologies, as long as manufacturing remains onshore. Renewables were never envisioned to be the major energy source. Nice if they were, from a government standpoint, but more important was they could play a significant role in an robust energy portfolio. The Feds had and have a position of energy technology agnosticism modulo regional politics with oil/gas and the like. Market share grows and shrinks over the years, but a diverse portfolio means you always have enough, important for those who lived through the oil price shocks of the 1970s and 1980s. No citations, so take it for what it’s worth...
8bitsrule 6y ago
Talk about histrionic reaching. > Solar farms take 450 times more land than nuclear plants, and wind farms take 700 times more land than natural gas wells.... And the 'poor physics' (???) of that 'land-intensive' solution can use land that's worthless for anything else ... which describes much of the planet's surface. As opposed to fracking in people's backyards? Earthquakes, well-poisoning? Is there anything Forbes won't print?
sydbarrett74 6y ago
Nice PR puff-piece written by a Big Coal lobbyist...
fuzzfactor 6y ago
Seems like it's a consumer society built on cheap oil over the recent century which is not meant to be powered by renewables. Civilization itself is continuing to gain on a scale of millennia from progress in renewables, now seemingly at somewhat of an exponential growth phase.

17 points by olivermarks 6y ago

gulbanana 6y ago

at no point does the author attempt to substantiate his argument

hndamien 6y ago

https://www.desmogblog.com/michael-shellenberger https://www.desmogblog.com/michael-shellenberger

olivermarks 6y ago
https://www.hoggan.com https://www.hoggan.com
- hndamien 6y ago
  I'm probably going to need some help with the connection here.
  - olivermarks 6y ago
    desmog blog is run by this green energy pr company

mchusma 6y ago

There are plausible criticisms, but the idea that it is simply not possible to power the world with solar, nuclear other renewables and battery is absurd. Most of his arguments seem to be against wind, where his arguments are strongest. First, unsubsidized solar is the absolute cheapest form of energy for most of the world right now. While there are regions of the world this won't work well, solar is the energy source to beat right now. Next, the physics is against him most energy is basically fusion (in the sun) -> solar collectors -> biomass -> petroleum. Each phase incurs losses, so using solar now is much better than letting the sun grow things and waiting thousands of years for us to use it in oil (which is the natural implication of what he is stating). Directly getting energy from fusion is better, but we aren't there yet (hopefully soon).

henry_bone 6y ago
He did not say nuclear. He is an advocate of nuclear, but when talking about Germany's renewables, nuclear is not what he was talking about.
oopsiforgot7 6y ago
Solar has a reverse economies of scale problem: the more we build, the bigger the fraction of power comes from solar, the more urgent the issue of storage becomes. We should keep building until it becomes a problem, I suppose, but also hopefully prepare solutions before it hits.

stubish 6y ago

> All of which raises a question: if renewables can’t cheaply power Germany, one of the richest and most technologically advanced countries in the world, how could a developing nation like Kenya ever expect them to allow it to “leapfrog” fossil fuels? None of the problems claimed to affect Germany are applicable to Kenya. Indeed, the lack of existing infrastructure in Kenya probably tips the balance way in favor of renewables, using localized power generation rather than centralized and the massive grid projects Germany is claimed to be having problems with. You can bootstrap power in remote regions much easier with renewables by plonking down a few solar cells and a battery, and it scales right down to a single cell tower. Unlike fossil fuel, where you need an energy grid or trucking in fuel. And are renewable energy plants still killing more birds than alternatives? I thought that argument lost validity about 30 years ago and is now just a bullshit flag? Sorry about Germany if the problems are true. In other parts of the rich western world things are going fine and in a few regions 100% renewable and exporting power. Suggest to the author to learn from the successes, not just the failures.

AtlasBarfed 6y ago
glass skyscrapers kill far more birds. Buildings overall kill 550 million per year Wind turbines? 28,000 https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/documents/psw_gtr191/psw_gtr191_1029-1042_erickson.pdf https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/documents/psw_gtr191/... page 10ish
- tuatoru 6y ago
  Domestic and feral ex-domestic cats kill far more birds than either. If this is a real concern, banning cat ownership is top of the list.
  - jollofricepeas 6y ago
    Source? Or is HN now Newsmax where evidence isn’t needed and statements alone serve as “facts”?
    - 6y ago

nitsuaeekcm 6y ago

An incredible article. The author pulls out all the emotional stops against some environmentally conscious elite he dislikes: > Heidegger, like much of the conservation movement, would have hated what the Energiewende has become: an excuse for the destruction of natural landscapes and local communities. > Opposition to renewables comes from the country peoples that Heidegger idolized as more authentic and “grounded” than urbane cosmopolitan elites who fetishize their solar roofs and Teslas as signs of virtue. And yet, in an entire article written about a country’s investments in clean energy, there’s not a single mention of climate change, carbon emissions, or any of the reasons why I at least thought we were fighting to keep the fossil fuels in the ground. And the author’s grand data-backed argument, showing why renewables are forever doomed? > But no amount of marketing could change the poor physics of resource-intensive and land-intensive renewables. Solar farms take 450 times more land than nuclear plants, and wind farms take 700 times more land than natural gas wells, to produce the same amount of energy. He places us on a playing field of energy per unit area, which could likely win the title of least useful metric of the year. I think everyone agrees there is a lot to be criticized and learned from with the Energiewende, but the axes on which this article analyzes it make no sense.

pksebben 6y ago
The axes on which this article turns make perfect sense - namely, those of the shamelessly pro-business bias that this joker is pandering to. Click through to the rest of his work. I would be astounded to learn he isn't receiving a paycheck from an exxon-funded think tank.

onecommentman 6y ago

A bit of US historical perspective. In the 1970s, the OPEC energy crisis prompted the Feds to push for renewables in a big way. The talk at the time about its environment benefits were probably one of the first examples of greenwashing. The push for conservation probably made a bigger environment impact with efficiency improvements in cars and the like. The real concern was reliable access to energy and robustness of the economy to shocks caused by oil/gas disruptions. Energy independence for the US, and secondarily for US allies. Has been and continues to be the de facto US government’s top priority in energy policy AFAIK. You can see that sustained support reflected in the continual incremental performance improvement in solar and wind tech. That sort of thing happens with major tech commitments over many years. Solar and wind are the “hyperlocal organic food-secure produce” of energy technologies, as long as manufacturing remains onshore. Renewables were never envisioned to be the major energy source. Nice if they were, from a government standpoint, but more important was they could play a significant role in an robust energy portfolio. The Feds had and have a position of energy technology agnosticism modulo regional politics with oil/gas and the like. Market share grows and shrinks over the years, but a diverse portfolio means you always have enough, important for those who lived through the oil price shocks of the 1970s and 1980s. No citations, so take it for what it’s worth...

8bitsrule 6y ago

Talk about histrionic reaching. > Solar farms take 450 times more land than nuclear plants, and wind farms take 700 times more land than natural gas wells.... And the 'poor physics' (???) of that 'land-intensive' solution can use land that's worthless for anything else ... which describes much of the planet's surface. As opposed to fracking in people's backyards? Earthquakes, well-poisoning? Is there anything Forbes won't print?

sydbarrett74 6y ago

Nice PR puff-piece written by a Big Coal lobbyist...

fuzzfactor 6y ago

Seems like it's a consumer society built on cheap oil over the recent century which is not meant to be powered by renewables. Civilization itself is continuing to gain on a scale of millennia from progress in renewables, now seemingly at somewhat of an exponential growth phase.