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So what I take away from this is that one company, TSMC, is at the forefront of chip manufacture (with Apple M1 and now Google), whilst being a few miles away f
by lifeisstillgood 6y ago
So what I take away from this is that one company, TSMC, is at the forefront of chip manufacture (with Apple M1 and now Google), whilst being a few miles away from a Chinese administration that sees a recalcitrant province not an independent country.
Our societies are like inverted pyramids- balancing on surprisingly small foundations that can tip over with more ease than we care to admit.
- tasogare 6y agoThis is why the recent weapon deal finalized by the current POTUS was so important. A lot of people there are disappointed by the result of the US presidential elections, since the probable soon-to-be president have a very ambiguous stance on the matter. It would be nice if other powers such as France were to offer arms deal, particularly ships and aircrafts (it did in the past). Taiwan is a very nice place with a lot of talents, influences, languages and a working democracy. It would be a real shame if all of this were whipped by China.
- onion2k 6y agoNo amount of weapons could stop China invading Taiwan if they chose to.
- kilroy123 6y agoThis is not true. If the US stepped in to defend Taiwan, militarily, the US nuclear arsenal would be enough.
- blackrock 6y agoIf you’re not aware, China also has nukes. And they can also hit every square inch of the United States. There is something call MAD, that keeps the United States scared of launching nukes against China.
- onion2k 6y agoAll China would need to do is ban exports of Chinese goods to the US in retaliation and the US would be completely crippled and unable to function as a country within 3 months. There is literally no scenario where the US would ever nuke China.
- refurb 6y agoAre Chinese imports to the US really that critical? And how would China fare without all those US dollars?
- flyinglizard 6y agoNuclear weapons will never, ever be used by any nation for any noire to confrontation in protection of a 3rd party. Carrier strike groups, on the other hand, are used and will be used.
- blackrock 6y agoIf that was so important, then why don’t Trump just give them nukes? Why don’t Taiwan just declare independence? Let’s get this world war 3 started already.
- corty 6y agoBecause giving nukes to someone is dangerous (more dangerous than giving stingers to the taliban) and subject to approval that Trump won't get. Taiwan is afraid to declare independence, they even have a mainland chinese governor to help the PRC keep up the pretense.
- tasogare 6y agoTaiwan is already a sovereign and independent state, it does not need to "declare independence" from anyone. Nukes are very powerful and strategic, it’s easy to understand why nobody wants to sell to anybody else.
- Xixi 6y agoIndividually, European countries (including, but not limited to France) are too small to act against China. This is why the EU is so important: EU can (still) stand up to China, in ways France simply cannot. It would of course be even stronger if UK was still part of it... But in any case the EU cannot sell weapons. I read quite a few French defense forum where netizens are wondering how France could sell weapons to Taiwan, without being singled out. One idea is to sell expertise, parts and maybe even blueprints rather than weapons. "Made in Taiwan" enough not to brush China the wrong way. As long as it looks local enough, China might agree to look the other way. This is of course a rather pessimistic line of thought, as the idea here is that China simply doesn't care of a handful of frigates, destroyers and fighters in the hand of the Taiwanese army. They simply don't want a slap in the face from a foreign country. To put things in perspective, by 2030 the Chinese vessel fleet is expected to be at least 425 ships strong, versus a target of 355 for the US. [1] With production capabilities vastly superior to that of the Western world. In that regard selling 5 destroyers to Taiwan is probably not a big deal. But maybe it's not all that useful. [1] https://www.meta-defense.fr/en/2020/09/17/the-355-ships-targeted-by-lus-navy-will-be-insufficient-against-china-according-to-mark-esper/ https://www.meta-defense.fr/en/2020/09/17/the-355-ships-targ...
- tasogare 6y agoThat’s an interesting method I didn’t think of, however I understand why the officials would be wary of it: in a way its similar to selling the source code instead of the finished product. The French military complex while less powerful than the US one probably don’t want to share how the sausages are made.
- beambot 6y agoRelevant: "The Coming Chip Wars" by Steve Blank https://steveblank.com/2020/06/18/the-coming-chip-wars-of-the-21st-century/ https://steveblank.com/2020/06/18/the-coming-chip-wars-of-th...
- colechristensen 6y agoReal quick we're going to need to go back to treating modern CPUs like munitions with severe export controls.
- mschuster91 6y agoFor what? The Western world imports CPUs already (so no way for export controls), and China can design and manufacture their own CPUs.
- baybal2 6y agoIn fact, your smartphone probably already exceed all ITARed chips by computing power, and it's a big irony that all of them go through China before reaching the US. If China wanted to put some into their ICBMs, they would've been just better off wiring a smartphone to the rocket.
- jacquesm 6y agohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziVpqh9UXmI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziVpqh9UXmI
- mschuster91 6y ago> If China wanted to put some into their ICBMs, they would've been just better off wiring a smartphone to the rocket. Why am I reminded of the plot of Iron Sky 1?
- colechristensen 6y agoIt would make designing advanced CPUs for foreign manufacture illegal so further advancements couldn’t be stolen and ensuring on shore chip fab capability. “export” controls doesn’t mean just goods, but also designs, specifications, even basic information
- varispeed 6y ago> so further advancements couldn’t be stolen How would you ensure the advancements couldn't be stolen? I thought we learned over the years that if hostile power wants a technology, sooner or later they will get it.
- mschuster91 6y agoAs long as someone reasonable is holding the office of the US President, I think it's safe to assume that the good old "mutually assured destruction" theory still holds and China knows that they'd get flattened by nuclear bombs if they dared to attack Taiwan.
- kristianov 6y agoUS nuking PRC for Taiwan does not sound possible. US won't even nuke the Soviets during cold wars.
- onion2k 6y agoIf any country nuked another without a direct attack that couldn't be repelled through non-nuclear means as provocation it would be economic suicide - no country on Earth would continue to trade with them. They would have to pay crippling reparations. Sanctions would be put in place within hours. That alone is enough to stop any country using nuclear weapons in anger. The deterrent aspect of "mutually assured destruction" isn't really necessary any more.
- jimmydorry 6y agoA few years ago, that assumption would have been sound. After seeing it slightly tested in the past four years though... I don't think such an assumption really holds as an absolute certainty anymore. We have seen developed nations continue trading with (and in some cases even increase their trade with) countries that have received international condemnation that should have seen unilateral embargos. To name the first three that come to mind: - Russia-Ukraine (land grab) - EU and Germany in particular increasing trade with Russia, particularly in terms of gas procurement when Russia should have been sanctioned into the ground - Russia-Britain (killing on foreign soil) - same as above - North Korea violating nuclear and ICBM testing treaty - most countries ceasing to trade openly, but continuing "off the books"
- corty 6y agoThe US, murdering people with drones without due process and often by sloppiness and mistake. The land-grab in Guantanamo bay and some parts of middle-america. Supplying nuclear weapons to the likes of Erdogan and Merkel. Supporting an autocratic regime in Saudi-Arabia and a lot of other regions. Violating the Iranian nuke treaty unilaterally.
- mytailorisrich 6y agoIt's like East and West Germany, or North or South Korea. Whether the opposing sides accept each others as separate states the key remains that they are split countries that will strive to reunify. In the case of China the split is massively unequal, which might give more ideas to the stronger side. If anything the semiconductor industry is a result of this. Taiwan/ROC needed to develop to survive and it made its industry vital for the world, which make them important instead of simply a puny island off the coast of mainland China.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- est 6y ago> balancing on surprisingly small foundations that can tip over with more ease than we care to admit. On the Chinese perspective of view, Chinese people can create wonders if politics are kept aside. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Miracle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Miracle
- ngcc_hk 6y agoOr not. If they do it properly that is all chinese has equal rights. Just like giving equal rights to woman in japan. Instead of who has the gun abd be more violence got it. Even if a dynasty survived the transit is not. It is not the edge that is the matter, as their boundary move well inside USA if you have not woke up. It is the internal that is the problem. Letting china to get asymmetry (can go out but nothing go in) with such a rubbish system that struggled for thousands of year. Good luck to humanity.
- dharma1 6y agoTSMC is building a fab in Arizona, but it won't be production ready until mid 2020s. https://www.tomshardware.com/uk/news/tsmc-arizona-fab-investment https://www.tomshardware.com/uk/news/tsmc-arizona-fab-invest... Intel has fabs in the US (and Israel), but they have some catching up to do with TSMC - a lot of things have gone wrong for Intel the last few years. I hope they'll get their shit together and bounce back. China has its own fabs (SMIC) and has been investing heavily into this, but as they are now banned from buying the EUV machines it will take a while, possibly up to a decade until they get to smaller process nodes. Long term China will be able to fab cutting edge chips itself, and possibly surpass others - looking at their tech trajectory and state funding. The US tech sanctions against China are just buying time.
- baybal2 6y ago> TSMC is building a fab in Arizona, but it won't be production ready until mid 2020s. And given the previously promised obscenely sized financial incentive may not come now, this is not a given now as well.
- Guthur 6y agoIntel do not license out production capacity and so they are not a solution for a diverse market of semi conductor companies.
- absolutelyrad 6y ago> possibly up to a decade Their optoelectronics/optics tech is getting to the state of the art in a short period by their pace of progress from the rumors that I heard. I'd wager 3-4 years before they have EUV themselves while avoiding conflict supply chain. Not 10 years time as you say. They got some of the best minds on the planet working, so I wouldn't think that they cannot achieve it rather quick. Zeiss and ASML are going to have real competition soon.
- dharma1 6y agocould absolutely happen sooner. It is of high strategic importance to China - to their whole electronics industry, and the AI dominance race, which also depends on specialised chips. State level AI dominance race is one of the main drivers of the US/China tech sanctions, I suspect
- faxfax 6y agoIt's not that bad - Samsung and Intel are at most 1-2 years behind TSMC. An eternity in terms of product cycles for sure, but society would not fall apart if Apple had to redesign their A15 and M2 chips for Samsung 5nm next year.
- dannyw 6y agoYou really think Intel is only 2 years behind TSMC?
- nl 6y agoIt's probably a reasonable assessment based on what has been publicly stated. Intel's 7nm process (which is equivalent of TSMC's 5nm, which just began production work) has recently been delayed into 2022[1] [1] https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/news/intels-7nm-process-six-months-behind-schedule/ https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/news/intels-7nm-process-six...
- mtgx 6y agoIf Intel promises a deadline, it will likely take at least 6-12 months longer. I doubt they will be able to make 7nm chips in any reasonable numbers, if at all, by 2023. Maybe mid-2023.
- varispeed 6y agoAre they not delaying it year on year? I am pretty sure every time I read about 7nm of Intel over the years, it always says that it is just around the corner or it is delayed. I'd say the Intel 7nm doesn't exist nor is being worked on apart from slides.
- nl 6y agoThat's 10nm. The 7nm process was never scheduled to be ready yet.
- RobLach 6y agoIntel 7nm line has non-economical yields and is effectively a failure. They’re backporting their 7nm designs on to older processes at huge penalty to buy time for a new approach while putting out a couple flagships on the 7n line at a loss for appearances. At least that’s the word on the street.
- trhway 6y agoremember the 2011 Thailand flood and the resulting HDD shortage?
- nl 6y agoHN: Oh no, Taiwan is next to China and China might invade and steal manufacturing expertise China: Hires TSMC engineers[1] [1] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech/China-hires-over-100-TSMC-engineers-in-push-for-chip-leadership https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech/China-hires-over...
- rasz 6y agoThats not the problem, problem is TSMC (or whole Taiwan) having an 'accident' coincidentally at the same time SMIC reaches maturity.
- n0nc3 6y agoWhy can't America build anymore? Is this a cultural problem, or a failure of public policy? Healthcare, rail, aircraft, automobiles, shipping, pharmaceuticals, and now semiconductors. We can't make any of these things at scale anymore. They turned GE into a financial institution. They sold Bell Labs off in pieces. Boeing can't safely update 1990s vintage air frames to accommodate modern engines. And yet, the market is on a tear. This is not sustainable.
- baybal2 6y agoThe reason is class conflict, or more precisely its absence. > They turned GE into a financial institution. They sold Bell Labs off in pieces. Boeing can't safely update 1990s vintage air frames to accommodate modern engines. And yet, the market is on a tear. This is not sustainable. You very well see what's wrong going here. The US economy, and government institutes seem to be overran by a class of self proclaimed "value adders:" heavy hitter "pro-managers," financial "engineers," and, of course, everybody's favourite — lawyers. It's very natural to conclude that an engineering company like GE shouldn't have been given to bankers, to be turned into a... bank, and Boeing shouldn't have been entrusted to outsourcing managers, to be turned into an outsourcing management company, and dozens electronics companies shouldn't have been given to lawyers, to be turned into patent litigation services companies, and so on, and so on. Yet, US — one of few countries affording such high level of employee control of their companies, and quite militant unions ends up with workplaces whisked away from under the nose of their employees. I see a simple explanation: Americans completely prematurely decided to bury the axe of class warfare, and traded peace for progress. No conflict — no progress. I am not advocating for violent revolution right away, certainly not that. You do not kill people over the ownership of green paper, that's morally wrong to do so. But you do not let such people simply live comfy life without opposition. Take a look at other countries, even though they may well lag behind US on worker rights, and don't have a culture of union militancy, and overall worse off compensation even for high skill work, yet you don't see factories turning into banks, or if they do, they quickly see workers voting with their feet. From my experience, I'd say even in China you do see factory workers changing workplaces when they feel "malaise in the air" in the company, and don't wait for company's malaise turn into (their) financial trouble.
- messo 6y agoDoes anyone know where POWER9-chips used in the Thalos II [0] are made? [0]: https://www.raptorcs.com/ https://www.raptorcs.com/
- wmf 6y agoPower has been made at GlobalFoundries in New York but Power10 is switching to Samsung.