4 ms·

This has been obvious for months -- Romer has been yelling from the rooftops about it -- and yet no major western govt save the Brits have attempted to even try

This has been obvious for months -- Romer has been yelling from the rooftops about it -- and yet no major western govt save the Brits have attempted to even try this strategy. Madness.

threeseed 6y ago
Because the more effective and proven strategy is to simply pay businesses and people to lockdown. It has been effectively eliminated in both Australia and NZ this way. And the impact to the economy is significant but it's turning out to be far less severe than the rest of the world and their on/off again strategy.
- anonytrary 6y ago
  > simply pay businesses and people to lockdown This is anything but simple. Vast majority of businesses and people will not be supported if indefinite lockdown continues. The hidden costs of bankrolling an entire country for an indefinite period is much greater than the cost to deploy a persistent, scalable testing framework. The latter is also an investment into the future as this will not be the last pandemic.
  - threeseed 6y ago
    No. It's very simple. You just keep paying people until the lockdown is over. Again this isn't some hypothetical exercise. Australia and NZ have just done this and now have basically eliminated COVID-19. As opposed to manufacturing and distributing 100s of millions of tests each week which is very much an unproven exercise.
    - eloff 6y ago
      I'll believe it is simple when you specify how much money is needed and where it comes from to do that.
      - threeseed 6y ago
        In the US you just need to look at the COVID-19 bills that are tied up in Congress for an idea of the money needed i.e. ~ 2-5 trillion. And you can fund it exactly the same way you did for the GFC (print money) or WW2 (war bonds). But compare it to the cost of the US bouncing in/out of lockdowns for the next 9-12 months.
        eloff 6y ago
        Sounds like a terrible idea.
    - cryptoz 6y ago
      Australia and NZ are not America. This is the same mistake Elon made when he suggested the US would have 0 new cases by this past April; the US is not China. The differences are actually so big that comparisons are dangerously misleading. The problem in the US is that you cant pay people enough to change their minds about the politics. They would be, and many in fact are, millionaires and they would still refuse the test. Even if it meant jail time. These solutions simply don't work in America.
  - chii 6y ago
    > entire country for an indefinite period it's not indefinite - it's just long enough to cut down unknown transmission to a managable number for contact tracing to kick in. Then public health measures like masking up and distancing is effective enough afterwards. Businesses cannot stand uncertainty - a on-off lockdown that they cannot predict is the worst, because they cannot make investment decisions with this sort of huge uncertainty.
- eloff 6y ago
  You can't really compare two sparsely populated islands at the "end" of the Earth to the US or Europe.
  - threeseed 6y ago
    UK has a population of 60 million. Australia is 25 million. Both are a set of islands. Not exactly an order of magnitude difference in population but yet there is a massive difference in the strategies and polices they've deployed. And now UK is a complete mess heading into winter and Australia has effective elimination.
    - twblalock 6y ago
      > And now UK is a complete mess heading into winter and Australia has effective elimination. Of course it might help that Australia is actually heading into summer.
      - threeseed 6y ago
        And it has been eliminated before the summer months. Also in many places in Australia it was eliminated well before winter.
        anotherevan 6y ago
        I am in the part of Australia that didn't eliminate it well before winter. But with 112 days of lock-down _during_ winter we certainly had the numbers come down dramatically and have had twenty-three days so far of no new infections or deaths. From tomorrow we no longer have to wear masks outside unless it gets crowded such that you cannot maintain physical distancing!
    - eloff 6y ago
      The UK is also next to Europe and a travel and business hub for the world. Australia is next to nothing important and has far less travel to and from the rest of the world.
  - 6y ago
- shalmanese 6y ago
  China moved on from lockdowns over 6 months ago. They switched to citywide testing with 5:1 and then 10:1 pooled PCR tests in May and then recently switched to pooled rapid antigen testing. With the current testing methodology, they place one sample on a test strip, wait to see if there's a color change, and if not, they'll put a subsequent sample on. You can use a single antigen test for up to 10 people and patients get their results while at the testing site.
twblalock 6y ago
> and yet no major western govt save the Brits have attempted to even try this strategy. The per-capita death rate in the UK is one of the worst in the world for this pandemic, and it's higher than the USA's. And they are now into a second lockdown. Whatever their strategy is, it's not working well at all.

This has been obvious for months -- Romer has been yelling from the rooftops about it -- and yet no major western govt save the Brits have attempted to even try this strategy. Madness.

threeseed 6y ago

Because the more effective and proven strategy is to simply pay businesses and people to lockdown. It has been effectively eliminated in both Australia and NZ this way. And the impact to the economy is significant but it's turning out to be far less severe than the rest of the world and their on/off again strategy.

anonytrary 6y ago
> simply pay businesses and people to lockdown This is anything but simple. Vast majority of businesses and people will not be supported if indefinite lockdown continues. The hidden costs of bankrolling an entire country for an indefinite period is much greater than the cost to deploy a persistent, scalable testing framework. The latter is also an investment into the future as this will not be the last pandemic.
- threeseed 6y ago
  No. It's very simple. You just keep paying people until the lockdown is over. Again this isn't some hypothetical exercise. Australia and NZ have just done this and now have basically eliminated COVID-19. As opposed to manufacturing and distributing 100s of millions of tests each week which is very much an unproven exercise.
  - eloff 6y ago
    I'll believe it is simple when you specify how much money is needed and where it comes from to do that.
    - threeseed 6y ago
      In the US you just need to look at the COVID-19 bills that are tied up in Congress for an idea of the money needed i.e. ~ 2-5 trillion. And you can fund it exactly the same way you did for the GFC (print money) or WW2 (war bonds). But compare it to the cost of the US bouncing in/out of lockdowns for the next 9-12 months.
      - eloff 6y ago
        Sounds like a terrible idea.
  - cryptoz 6y ago
    Australia and NZ are not America. This is the same mistake Elon made when he suggested the US would have 0 new cases by this past April; the US is not China. The differences are actually so big that comparisons are dangerously misleading. The problem in the US is that you cant pay people enough to change their minds about the politics. They would be, and many in fact are, millionaires and they would still refuse the test. Even if it meant jail time. These solutions simply don't work in America.
- chii 6y ago
  > entire country for an indefinite period it's not indefinite - it's just long enough to cut down unknown transmission to a managable number for contact tracing to kick in. Then public health measures like masking up and distancing is effective enough afterwards. Businesses cannot stand uncertainty - a on-off lockdown that they cannot predict is the worst, because they cannot make investment decisions with this sort of huge uncertainty.
eloff 6y ago
You can't really compare two sparsely populated islands at the "end" of the Earth to the US or Europe.
- threeseed 6y ago
  UK has a population of 60 million. Australia is 25 million. Both are a set of islands. Not exactly an order of magnitude difference in population but yet there is a massive difference in the strategies and polices they've deployed. And now UK is a complete mess heading into winter and Australia has effective elimination.
  - twblalock 6y ago
    > And now UK is a complete mess heading into winter and Australia has effective elimination. Of course it might help that Australia is actually heading into summer.
    - threeseed 6y ago
      And it has been eliminated before the summer months. Also in many places in Australia it was eliminated well before winter.
      - anotherevan 6y ago
        I am in the part of Australia that didn't eliminate it well before winter. But with 112 days of lock-down _during_ winter we certainly had the numbers come down dramatically and have had twenty-three days so far of no new infections or deaths. From tomorrow we no longer have to wear masks outside unless it gets crowded such that you cannot maintain physical distancing!
  - eloff 6y ago
    The UK is also next to Europe and a travel and business hub for the world. Australia is next to nothing important and has far less travel to and from the rest of the world.
- 6y ago
shalmanese 6y ago
China moved on from lockdowns over 6 months ago. They switched to citywide testing with 5:1 and then 10:1 pooled PCR tests in May and then recently switched to pooled rapid antigen testing. With the current testing methodology, they place one sample on a test strip, wait to see if there's a color change, and if not, they'll put a subsequent sample on. You can use a single antigen test for up to 10 people and patients get their results while at the testing site.

twblalock 6y ago

> and yet no major western govt save the Brits have attempted to even try this strategy. The per-capita death rate in the UK is one of the worst in the world for this pandemic, and it's higher than the USA's. And they are now into a second lockdown. Whatever their strategy is, it's not working well at all.