7 ms·

Covid-19 down in 24 counties with mask mandates, up in 81 counties without

56 points by 7d7n 6y ago

exabrial 6y ago
Covid is down/non-existent in counties in Western Kansas too where nobody is wearing masks. These "studies" are worthless because they contain so many lurking variables. They do more harm than good because they distort reality and "cry wolf", weakening the public response when compliance is needed elsewhere. I'm not saying don't wear a mask. The best studies we have so seem to suppport they slow disease transmission. But we shouldn't let bad science get a free pass.
- getlawgdon 6y ago
  Please define the distinction between "'these studies'" and "the best studies".
- kintamanimatt 6y ago
  Many counties in Western Kansas, are, apparently COVID hot spots, at least that’s according to this article: https://www.hutchnews.com/news/20201101/western-kansas-riddled-with-covid-19-hot-spots https://www.hutchnews.com/news/20201101/western-kansas-riddl...
- tandr 6y ago
  I hate to be that guy... Would you be kind and post some sources of that information please?
exabrial 6y ago
I'm still more concerned with death or permanent injury rates then transmission rates. Have we moved the needle in those regards?
- totalZero 6y ago
  It's an error to act as though these things aren't related IMO. Exposure to fewer virus particles means fewer nucleation points for an infection, which in turn means that there must be greater replication to achieve the same viral load. If there's a causal link between viral load (or speed of onset) and severity of presentation, then reducing the amount of virus involved in each transmission will also reduce the severity.
- AstralStorm 6y ago
  Not particularly. The death rates track COVID case counts relatively directly still, in fact it's getting worse now in the USA as local medical services are getting overwhelmed. It's beyond triage in places now, closer to deathwatch. As for injuries, we don't have correct data yet.
known 6y ago
Killer virus is lurking in Air; Is it that difficult to comprehend masks4all.co
theptip 6y ago
I suspect there’s a bit more to this one. My immediate question was “do these populations differ?” because you could imagine some confounding effect where counties which rejected mask-wearing have something else in common, like say not following other best practices. Skimming the paper (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6947e2-H.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6947e2-H.pdf), check out the chart on page 4; seems like when you look at the trend lines, the counties that didn’t enact mask restrictions had a lower rate of increase in infections prior to those restrictions going into effect, and the rate of increase didn’t change after. Furthermore, there was a really big spike around the time that the restrictions were put in place in the counties that enacted mandates. That spike didn’t show up in the counties where restrictions were not put in place. I’m not sure to what extent regression to the mean applies in the context of infectious diseases; you could imagine some effects like holiday week where folks increase their risk for a short time and then stop again, causing the infection rate to drop again. I wrote that before checking the dates, and indeed the spike was around 4th July, so there’s a fairly good reason to believe that at least some of the reported post-intervention drop in infection rate was just due to people reducing their mixing/socializing back to pre-holiday levels. Though the rate started increasing before Jul4 so this can’t be the full explanation. I support wearing masks, but this particular study doesn’t seem like strong evidence.
tpoacher 6y ago
Conclusion: Officials in counties more likely to experience a Covd19 increase due to the political attitudes of their constituents, were under higher pressure to not mandate masks. Oh I'm sorry, did i just ruin your beautiful correlation that you thought was causal?
nairboon 6y ago
If you are wondering why the analysis ends on August 23: > August 23, 2020, was selected as the study end date because most Kansas counties had already started or were about to begin school the week of August 24, 2020. The implementation of in-person schooling would have signified an important change in events influencing COVID-19 incidence rates after the executive order.
jjeaff 6y ago
This seems to be very good evidence that mask mandates work. And not just masks, which for some reason people still dispute, but also for mandating mask usage when necessary. I have seen some argue that mandating doesn't work or even makes things worse, but this data seems to indicate otherwise.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- collective-intl 6y ago
  This is a very NPC comment.
- brighton36 6y ago
  This is a very NPC comment.
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  > This seems to be very good evidence that mask mandates work. Nope, corona is still spreading everywhere, mask or not. People are just grasping at straws while destroying our education system and economy in the process.
zests 6y ago
Treat this article with the same skepticism you would as if the article said "Covid-19 lower in counties without mask mandates." This is true according to the data, by the way. That being said, wear masks. Be upset with major world health organizations for not recommending mask usage earlier than they did. Treat anything anyone says about Covid, including this very post, with caution and skepticism. There's always an agenda and there's always bias.
- philliphaydon 6y ago
  Wearing masks has an agenda! To not spread Covid!
  - brighton36 6y ago
    and to promote fear.
    - jswny 6y ago
      Promoting fear of what? The deadly pandemic that's killing hundreds of thousands of people here in the US? That's fine by me as long as it helps keep some of them alive. Maybe you would rather be a little less fearful of something but have it be more likely to kill you?
      - anoncake 6y ago
        You mean the pandemic that's killing tenths of a percent of people? It's easy to be too afraid of that one.
        getlawgdon 6y ago
        the virus that is more infectious and deadly than flu but with no immunity like flu and unknown long term effects but likely cardiovascular disease and neurological damage. get it together, mate.

56 points by 7d7n 6y ago

Covid is down/non-existent in counties in Western Kansas too where nobody is wearing masks. These "studies" are worthless because they contain so many lurking variables. They do more harm than good because they distort reality and "cry wolf", weakening the public response when compliance is needed elsewhere. I'm not saying don't wear a mask. The best studies we have so seem to suppport they slow disease transmission. But we shouldn't let bad science get a free pass.

getlawgdon 6y ago
Please define the distinction between "'these studies'" and "the best studies".
kintamanimatt 6y ago
Many counties in Western Kansas, are, apparently COVID hot spots, at least that’s according to this article: https://www.hutchnews.com/news/20201101/western-kansas-riddled-with-covid-19-hot-spots https://www.hutchnews.com/news/20201101/western-kansas-riddl...
tandr 6y ago
I hate to be that guy... Would you be kind and post some sources of that information please?

exabrial 6y ago

I'm still more concerned with death or permanent injury rates then transmission rates. Have we moved the needle in those regards?

totalZero 6y ago
It's an error to act as though these things aren't related IMO. Exposure to fewer virus particles means fewer nucleation points for an infection, which in turn means that there must be greater replication to achieve the same viral load. If there's a causal link between viral load (or speed of onset) and severity of presentation, then reducing the amount of virus involved in each transmission will also reduce the severity.
AstralStorm 6y ago
Not particularly. The death rates track COVID case counts relatively directly still, in fact it's getting worse now in the USA as local medical services are getting overwhelmed. It's beyond triage in places now, closer to deathwatch. As for injuries, we don't have correct data yet.

known 6y ago

Killer virus is lurking in Air; Is it that difficult to comprehend masks4all.co

theptip 6y ago

I suspect there’s a bit more to this one. My immediate question was “do these populations differ?” because you could imagine some confounding effect where counties which rejected mask-wearing have something else in common, like say not following other best practices. Skimming the paper (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6947e2-H.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6947e2-H.pdf), check out the chart on page 4; seems like when you look at the trend lines, the counties that didn’t enact mask restrictions had a lower rate of increase in infections prior to those restrictions going into effect, and the rate of increase didn’t change after. Furthermore, there was a really big spike around the time that the restrictions were put in place in the counties that enacted mandates. That spike didn’t show up in the counties where restrictions were not put in place. I’m not sure to what extent regression to the mean applies in the context of infectious diseases; you could imagine some effects like holiday week where folks increase their risk for a short time and then stop again, causing the infection rate to drop again. I wrote that before checking the dates, and indeed the spike was around 4th July, so there’s a fairly good reason to believe that at least some of the reported post-intervention drop in infection rate was just due to people reducing their mixing/socializing back to pre-holiday levels. Though the rate started increasing before Jul4 so this can’t be the full explanation. I support wearing masks, but this particular study doesn’t seem like strong evidence.

tpoacher 6y ago

Conclusion: Officials in counties more likely to experience a Covd19 increase due to the political attitudes of their constituents, were under higher pressure to not mandate masks. Oh I'm sorry, did i just ruin your beautiful correlation that you thought was causal?

nairboon 6y ago

If you are wondering why the analysis ends on August 23: > August 23, 2020, was selected as the study end date because most Kansas counties had already started or were about to begin school the week of August 24, 2020. The implementation of in-person schooling would have signified an important change in events influencing COVID-19 incidence rates after the executive order.

jjeaff 6y ago

This seems to be very good evidence that mask mandates work. And not just masks, which for some reason people still dispute, but also for mandating mask usage when necessary. I have seen some argue that mandating doesn't work or even makes things worse, but this data seems to indicate otherwise.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
collective-intl 6y ago
This is a very NPC comment.
brighton36 6y ago
This is a very NPC comment.
redis_mlc 6y ago
> This seems to be very good evidence that mask mandates work. Nope, corona is still spreading everywhere, mask or not. People are just grasping at straws while destroying our education system and economy in the process.

zests 6y ago

Treat this article with the same skepticism you would as if the article said "Covid-19 lower in counties without mask mandates." This is true according to the data, by the way. That being said, wear masks. Be upset with major world health organizations for not recommending mask usage earlier than they did. Treat anything anyone says about Covid, including this very post, with caution and skepticism. There's always an agenda and there's always bias.

philliphaydon 6y ago
Wearing masks has an agenda! To not spread Covid!
- brighton36 6y ago
  and to promote fear.
  - jswny 6y ago
    Promoting fear of what? The deadly pandemic that's killing hundreds of thousands of people here in the US? That's fine by me as long as it helps keep some of them alive. Maybe you would rather be a little less fearful of something but have it be more likely to kill you?
    - anoncake 6y ago
      You mean the pandemic that's killing tenths of a percent of people? It's easy to be too afraid of that one.
      - getlawgdon 6y ago
        the virus that is more infectious and deadly than flu but with no immunity like flu and unknown long term effects but likely cardiovascular disease and neurological damage. get it together, mate.