10 ms·

NHS planning to start covid vaccination of under 50s by end of January

49 points by BellLabradors 6y ago

Jaruzel 6y ago
Article now says 'Under 50s from End of January' - post title needs updating. Also, non paywalled take on the news: https://metro.co.uk/2020/11/20/covid-vaccine-to-roll-out-to-under-50s-in-the-uk-by-end-of-january-13629232/ https://metro.co.uk/2020/11/20/covid-vaccine-to-roll-out-to-...
- BellLabradors 6y ago
  From the article: "The HSJ says the plan it has seen lays out the priority groups for receiving the vaccine, and the dates they'll be offered it: Beginning of December: Healthcare workers, care home residents and care home staff Mid-December: People aged 80 or over Late December: Those aged 70 to 80 Early January: Everyone aged 65 to 70, as well as all high and moderate risk under 65s Mid-January: Everyone aged 50 to 65 Late January: Everyone else over the age of 18 (but most of this group would be vaccinated during March, the report says)" Didn't realise it was paywalled, sorry.
  - BillyTheKing 6y ago
    that sounds incredibly ambitious (if not unrealistic) to me, how is that supposed to work? Currently, there's only a single vaccine that's probably going to hit the market in Europe soon, and that's the Biontech/Pfizer one. They said they'll have 50 million doses available in December, but that's for both the US as well as the EU and the UK (which means 25 million people can get vaccinated in total). How is that possibly enough for health-care workers and care-home residents in the UK as well as people aged 80 or over? And it's going to be a similar situation in January and February, sure Bntch/Pfizer will produce a decent amount of vaccines specifically for the European market in Belgium and Germany, but again that's going to be hardly enough for everyone over the age of 18 in the UK - especially given the fact that those doses will have to be shared with all other European nations.
    - WillPostForFood 6y ago
      You have a second vaccine, from Moderna, that looks like it will be approved in the EU for December as well. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-20/eu-could-approve-biontech-moderna-vaccines-in-december https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-20/eu-could-... Once both are approved, assume that production can be ramped up even further.
      - BillyTheKing 6y ago
        afaik, the Moderna vaccine is only going to be available outside the US in Spring (around March, April)
    - dbbk 6y ago
      I'm also not sure how they can possibly arrive at this with Pfizer and Moderna alone. I'm assuming it's factored in an Oxford approval.
buzzert 6y ago
Which vaccine?
- BillyTheKing 6y ago
  I'd assume the Biontech/Pfizer one, and maybe the Oxford/AstraZeneca pending trial-data and approval. Though things seem to be taking a little while with that vaccine, so let's see
  - sgt101 6y ago
    I wish I knew - but speculating... it might be that O/AZ is the one that gets used (if the results are any good) because there are 100m doses already made and available and it requires only normal refrigeration so should be easier to actually get out there. I really hope that they get some good results...
neonate 6y ago
https://archive.is/EGeQs https://archive.is/EGeQs
silicon2401 6y ago
Curious, are people planning to take the first vaccine that becomes available? I can't imagine taking a vaccine for covid anytime soon, least of all as the first round.
- dgritsko 6y ago
  I've generally been of the opinion that by the time it becomes available to me (I'm not in an especially at-risk demographic, not a healthcare worker, etc.), I won't be part of the "first round," and we'll know a good bit more about the safety of these vaccines than we currently do (which is already a decent bit as I understand it, given the size of these trials).
- dageshi 6y ago
  If my countries healthcare professionals are willing to take it then I will. They're more qualified to judge the risk than anyone else.
  - CodeGlitch 6y ago
    Upvoted. This is my general rule in life: do what the professionals do. Of course I have family members who are completely mistrusting of, say, medical professionals, and believe crap on the internet instead.
  - Eric_WVGG 6y ago
    Yeah, that's the thing… > I can't imagine taking a vaccine for covid anytime soon, least of all as the first round. Well good for you, unless you're a doctor or nurse, you can’t. And by the time you ^are^ eligible, there will be millions of others who have the vaccine, and more data. Granted, not the months or years of data you usually see with a vaccine, but that’s as abnormal as everything else these days…
  - toast0 6y ago
    Healthcare professionals may be more qualified to judge medical risks. But ultimately it's a decision taken with no long term data for either the status quo or the intervention. You can extrapolate long term data from SARS and MERS for tail risks of contracting COVID; but there's no other similar immunizations to extrapolate from. By the time a vaccine is available for me (not in any risk categories; fairly poor access to COVID testing in my county, which I assume would mean poor access to vaccines, too), I'd guess we would have a lot more data on any immediate negative effects, so there's some confidence building; but it's still a choice between an unknowable risk and an unknowable risk.
dgritsko 6y ago
> Under the plan, everyone who wants to would have been vaccinated by early April. It's going to be really interesting to see how this plays out, once vaccines start to become widely available. I would hope that some "social inertia" will help convince people who are "on the fence" or otherwise skeptical about getting vaccinated, as they see more folks get it and the case numbers hopefully start to flatten out or drop.
- lawn 6y ago
  I hope so, but the more I read about cults and mind-control the less I believe we'll have a good outcome.
  - aphextron 6y ago
    >I hope so, but the more I read about cults and mind-control the less I believe we'll have a good outcome. The real crazies are a (regrettably) loud minority. We only need around a 75% vaccination rate with a 95% effective vaccine to get to herd immunity. I've no worries at all we'll be there by the end of summer.
    - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
      That seems high to me. If R0 is 2, shouldn't a 50% vaccination rate (with 100% effectiveness) get you to an effective R0 of 1?
      - mandelbrotwurst 6y ago
        No, because people engage in riskier behavior when they start to feel safer, driving up R0.
        sieabahlpark 6y ago
        I guess that's a risk for those willing to make it
        6y ago
tomohawk 6y ago
You would think they would prioritize teachers and other personnel in the schools. There is no excess mortality for those under 14, as covid goes after the ACE2 receptor, which mostly gets activated at puberty. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/parenting/coronavirus-children-spread-covid-19.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/parenting/coronavirus-chi... Getting kids back to school seems like a high priority.
- donor20 6y ago
  I was going to make nearly this same comment. The productivity of working from home would go WAY up with this, so you could keep higher risk groups from interacting for longer (at least in my household - a kid running around is a MAJOR distraction)
- citilife 6y ago
  Honestly, excess deaths so far are relatively low, 10-20% increased risk of death this year... https://raw.githubusercontent.com/lettergram/covid19-analysis/master/graphs/cdc-derived/US-deaths-by-age-group.png https://raw.githubusercontent.com/lettergram/covid19-analysi... In terms of what that means, if you're 15 - 45; 1 per 1000 people die in a given year. This year it'll be 1.2 per 1000, for the 15 - 45 age range.[1] This goes across the board, for 45-64 you're looking at an increase from 1/500 to 1.2/500... etc, etc. [1] http://www.bandolier.org.uk/booth/Risk/dyingage.html http://www.bandolier.org.uk/booth/Risk/dyingage.html
  - CodeGlitch 6y ago
    That's because we've put our countries into lockdown. If we hadn't then do you think the deaths would have been far higher? (I think the answer to that is 'yes'). Unfortunately we can't stay in lock down forever...
    - matthewmacleod 6y ago
      Also "10-20% increased risk of death this year" is fucking massive
hikerclimb 6y ago
CEO of Pfizer sold millions in stock in early November

49 points by BellLabradors 6y ago

Article now says 'Under 50s from End of January' - post title needs updating. Also, non paywalled take on the news: https://metro.co.uk/2020/11/20/covid-vaccine-to-roll-out-to-under-50s-in-the-uk-by-end-of-january-13629232/ https://metro.co.uk/2020/11/20/covid-vaccine-to-roll-out-to-...

BellLabradors 6y ago
From the article: "The HSJ says the plan it has seen lays out the priority groups for receiving the vaccine, and the dates they'll be offered it: Beginning of December: Healthcare workers, care home residents and care home staff Mid-December: People aged 80 or over Late December: Those aged 70 to 80 Early January: Everyone aged 65 to 70, as well as all high and moderate risk under 65s Mid-January: Everyone aged 50 to 65 Late January: Everyone else over the age of 18 (but most of this group would be vaccinated during March, the report says)" Didn't realise it was paywalled, sorry.
- BillyTheKing 6y ago
  that sounds incredibly ambitious (if not unrealistic) to me, how is that supposed to work? Currently, there's only a single vaccine that's probably going to hit the market in Europe soon, and that's the Biontech/Pfizer one. They said they'll have 50 million doses available in December, but that's for both the US as well as the EU and the UK (which means 25 million people can get vaccinated in total). How is that possibly enough for health-care workers and care-home residents in the UK as well as people aged 80 or over? And it's going to be a similar situation in January and February, sure Bntch/Pfizer will produce a decent amount of vaccines specifically for the European market in Belgium and Germany, but again that's going to be hardly enough for everyone over the age of 18 in the UK - especially given the fact that those doses will have to be shared with all other European nations.
  - WillPostForFood 6y ago
    You have a second vaccine, from Moderna, that looks like it will be approved in the EU for December as well. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-20/eu-could-approve-biontech-moderna-vaccines-in-december https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-20/eu-could-... Once both are approved, assume that production can be ramped up even further.
    - BillyTheKing 6y ago
      afaik, the Moderna vaccine is only going to be available outside the US in Spring (around March, April)
  - dbbk 6y ago
    I'm also not sure how they can possibly arrive at this with Pfizer and Moderna alone. I'm assuming it's factored in an Oxford approval.

buzzert 6y ago

Which vaccine?

BillyTheKing 6y ago
I'd assume the Biontech/Pfizer one, and maybe the Oxford/AstraZeneca pending trial-data and approval. Though things seem to be taking a little while with that vaccine, so let's see
- sgt101 6y ago
  I wish I knew - but speculating... it might be that O/AZ is the one that gets used (if the results are any good) because there are 100m doses already made and available and it requires only normal refrigeration so should be easier to actually get out there. I really hope that they get some good results...

neonate 6y ago

https://archive.is/EGeQs https://archive.is/EGeQs

silicon2401 6y ago

Curious, are people planning to take the first vaccine that becomes available? I can't imagine taking a vaccine for covid anytime soon, least of all as the first round.

dgritsko 6y ago
I've generally been of the opinion that by the time it becomes available to me (I'm not in an especially at-risk demographic, not a healthcare worker, etc.), I won't be part of the "first round," and we'll know a good bit more about the safety of these vaccines than we currently do (which is already a decent bit as I understand it, given the size of these trials).
dageshi 6y ago
If my countries healthcare professionals are willing to take it then I will. They're more qualified to judge the risk than anyone else.
- CodeGlitch 6y ago
  Upvoted. This is my general rule in life: do what the professionals do. Of course I have family members who are completely mistrusting of, say, medical professionals, and believe crap on the internet instead.
- Eric_WVGG 6y ago
  Yeah, that's the thing… > I can't imagine taking a vaccine for covid anytime soon, least of all as the first round. Well good for you, unless you're a doctor or nurse, you can’t. And by the time you ^are^ eligible, there will be millions of others who have the vaccine, and more data. Granted, not the months or years of data you usually see with a vaccine, but that’s as abnormal as everything else these days…
- toast0 6y ago
  Healthcare professionals may be more qualified to judge medical risks. But ultimately it's a decision taken with no long term data for either the status quo or the intervention. You can extrapolate long term data from SARS and MERS for tail risks of contracting COVID; but there's no other similar immunizations to extrapolate from. By the time a vaccine is available for me (not in any risk categories; fairly poor access to COVID testing in my county, which I assume would mean poor access to vaccines, too), I'd guess we would have a lot more data on any immediate negative effects, so there's some confidence building; but it's still a choice between an unknowable risk and an unknowable risk.

dgritsko 6y ago

> Under the plan, everyone who wants to would have been vaccinated by early April. It's going to be really interesting to see how this plays out, once vaccines start to become widely available. I would hope that some "social inertia" will help convince people who are "on the fence" or otherwise skeptical about getting vaccinated, as they see more folks get it and the case numbers hopefully start to flatten out or drop.

lawn 6y ago
I hope so, but the more I read about cults and mind-control the less I believe we'll have a good outcome.
- aphextron 6y ago
  >I hope so, but the more I read about cults and mind-control the less I believe we'll have a good outcome. The real crazies are a (regrettably) loud minority. We only need around a 75% vaccination rate with a 95% effective vaccine to get to herd immunity. I've no worries at all we'll be there by the end of summer.
  - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
    That seems high to me. If R0 is 2, shouldn't a 50% vaccination rate (with 100% effectiveness) get you to an effective R0 of 1?
    - mandelbrotwurst 6y ago
      No, because people engage in riskier behavior when they start to feel safer, driving up R0.
      - sieabahlpark 6y ago
        I guess that's a risk for those willing to make it
      - 6y ago

tomohawk 6y ago

You would think they would prioritize teachers and other personnel in the schools. There is no excess mortality for those under 14, as covid goes after the ACE2 receptor, which mostly gets activated at puberty. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/parenting/coronavirus-children-spread-covid-19.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/parenting/coronavirus-chi... Getting kids back to school seems like a high priority.

donor20 6y ago
I was going to make nearly this same comment. The productivity of working from home would go WAY up with this, so you could keep higher risk groups from interacting for longer (at least in my household - a kid running around is a MAJOR distraction)
citilife 6y ago
Honestly, excess deaths so far are relatively low, 10-20% increased risk of death this year... https://raw.githubusercontent.com/lettergram/covid19-analysis/master/graphs/cdc-derived/US-deaths-by-age-group.png https://raw.githubusercontent.com/lettergram/covid19-analysi... In terms of what that means, if you're 15 - 45; 1 per 1000 people die in a given year. This year it'll be 1.2 per 1000, for the 15 - 45 age range.[1] This goes across the board, for 45-64 you're looking at an increase from 1/500 to 1.2/500... etc, etc. [1] http://www.bandolier.org.uk/booth/Risk/dyingage.html http://www.bandolier.org.uk/booth/Risk/dyingage.html
- CodeGlitch 6y ago
  That's because we've put our countries into lockdown. If we hadn't then do you think the deaths would have been far higher? (I think the answer to that is 'yes'). Unfortunately we can't stay in lock down forever...
  - matthewmacleod 6y ago
    Also "10-20% increased risk of death this year" is fucking massive

hikerclimb 6y ago

CEO of Pfizer sold millions in stock in early November