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I think you’ve completely missed the point of what is a very reasonable and forward-thinking signalling exercise. You cannot have sudden cliff-edges in policie
by djmobley 6y ago
I think you’ve completely missed the point of what is a very reasonable and forward-thinking signalling exercise.
You cannot have sudden cliff-edges in policies (like banning the sale of new ICE vehicles) that would put thousands, if not millions of people out of jobs.
You need to send signals like this to the market well in advance so they can invest and plan ahead.
- brtkdotse 6y ago> You cannot have sudden cliff-edges in policies Brexit has entered the chat
- newlytread 6y agoI wouldn’t call anything about Brexit sudden or well designed
- rusk 6y agoI guess it's a slow toppling over a cliff edge. Like at the end of the Italian Job.
- Normal_gaussian 6y agoThis is a perfect example. Talked about by the forces that enacted it as early as 2010, the Brexit referendum happens in 2016, and leaving the EU has been gradually happening since then.
- crispyporkbites 6y agoNo, there’s 6 weeks to go and there’s still no trade agreement in place, nothing material has happened in the last 4 years. Any business that imports/exports has no clue what will happen on 1st Jan. But yea I can get a blue passport now. What a great thing to waste years on.
- brigandish 6y agoBecause nothing much needs to change, which is (partly) what was so funny about the debate surrounding it.
- rand49an 6y agoNothing did need to change, but since we've decided that we want no part of the single market or any regulatory alignment things will have to change unless we decide otherwise. Because of our own foolishness for 4 years, we have created a deadline for ourselves.
- brigandish 6y agoMaybe my point wasn’t clear. Very little will change (in the short term at least), the “deadline” is a misnomer, and whichever day finally becomes the real leaving day (as it’s been and no doubt will continue to be stretched out and kicked down the road) everyone will wake up and notice it’s much the same as any other, the histrionic cries coming from Twitter users notwithstanding. As to “nothing did need to change” that quite clearly wasn’t the case or a winning vote for leaving wouldn’t be remotely possible. In any well supported political view there is some truth to be found in its suggestions and/or grievances, whether it’s ultimately misguided or not.
- crispyporkbites 6y agoNo- the UK enters a WTO agreement on the 1st jan, that means imports taxes, duties and restrictions on a whole bunch of things. It’s impossible to plan for because it can all change at the last minute. It’s easy to say nothing will change if it doesn’t affect you. I don’t understand why a trade agreement with a few extra bits of international legislation was put to a general public referendum. It’s got nothing to do with the average joe on the street, the general public has no understanding of this.
- brigandish 6y ago
- mavhc 6y agoBrexit is a direct result of global warming. Wars caused by drought, cause migration, cause racism.
- baq 6y agoBritish politicians blaming EU for basically everything bad didn't help, though.
- alxtye 6y agoInteresting theory. Which wars caused by drought?
- mavhc 6y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war#Drought https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war#Drought https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Crisis_(2011%E2%80%93present)#Ecological_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Crisis_(2011%E2%80%93pr... But in general wars are about access to resources, food and water fundamentally
- onion2k 6y agoThe signals that the ban is coming have been there for decades. Professor David King, former chief scientific advisor to the UK government, suggested a ban on petrol cars in 2002 (http://www.evuk.co.uk/hotwires/rawstuff/art33.html http://www.evuk.co.uk/hotwires/rawstuff/art33.html). That would have been a bit early for a ban in my opinion, but had the government heeded his advice and put in a legally binding ban to come in from, say, 2015, then the UK would be well ahead of the curve and would have created tens of thousands of jobs in the electric vehicle industry. It's also worth pointing out that the 'ban' doesn't ban the sale of all ICE cars - hybrids are still going to be available for sale until at least 2035.
- jonplackett 6y agoCompanies don’t seem to respond to threats of threats. Only direct threats to their existence. I know it’s late and may get changed, but any car company now has to take it seriously or risk going out of business pretty soon
- logifail 6y ago> Professor David King, former chief scientific advisor to the UK government, suggested a ban on petrol cars in 2002 from that article: "Britain should follow the example of Lombardy, a heavily-industrialised region in northern Italy, which is to ban the sale of fossil-fuel powered cars from 1 January 2005" Q: Did Lombardy really enact that ban in 2005? What happened as a result?
- onion2k 6y agoA longer article about that point - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/feb/02/oil.business1 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/feb/02/oil.business1 (nothing about the outcomes though)
- logifail 6y agoI've read that article a couple of times and am left with the impression that this "ban" may have been nothing more than a proposal by Mr Formigoni. Have I misunderstood?
- ainiriand 6y agoThere are many things that can be done, in this very same moment. The problem is the high cost in political resources that no one is willing to pay. Some examples: - Start by implementing a odd/even rule for license plates in big cities, even full bans on weekends. - Tax and/or de-subsidize the meat industry. - Incentivize the installation of wind or other renewable energies. Energies with no CO2 emissions, like nuclear, should be encouraged. - Stop getting oil from the northern sea. Leave it underground.
- echelon 6y ago> - Start by implementing a odd/even rule for license plates in big cities, even full bans on weekends. > - Tax and/or de-subsidize the meat industry. And just like that, you've been voted straight out of office. Better luck next life connecting to the electorate. You can't do those things. Humanity is a distributed consensus problem. Climate change presents an interesting change in the fitness landscape topology ahead.
- arnoooooo 6y agoWhat are leaders for if they can't lead ? Should their job not be to convince people of what needs to be done ? They do a very good job by the way when it comes to pushing for liberalism.
- singemonkey 6y agoWhen did Trump and Johnson push for liberalism?
- black_puppydog 6y agoThen humanity is clearly headed off a cliff in that landscape. Which, by the way, has been signaled to everyone for decades now. Just our political processes have not allowed those signals to reach "the economy" and we seem to be unable to act on anything that isn't felt by the economy. Which, I might add, is not a god-given fact, but rather a political choice. Anyway, we will have a cliff. And it will have been announced. And people will suffer when our consensus finding process drives us all over this cliff.
- rowanG077 6y agoMillions of people die or they are out of Jobs? What a hard choice to make. The consideration shouldn't be "but what about the economy?". It should be what if we don't do it.
- ArnoVW 6y agoProblem is, it's not the same people doing the dieing. And the dieing doesn't happen right now. Inverse situation for covid. Suddenly there is a lot of money we can borrow from our children, because 'a problem right not' VS 'à problem in 10 years' Not sure how we can fix this 'bug' in our governance model..
- pjc50 6y agoCovid has absolutely shown that there are a lot of people who prioritise "the economy" over even quite a lot of deaths.
- rowanG077 6y agoI would say the opposite actually. We have chosen quite drastic measures in many countries for a relatively small number of deaths. Global warning is not 1% dies. It very well could be 90% and we return to pre-industrial levels of civilization.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- roenxi 6y agoA fair point. But if they can't have a cliff today there isn't any reason to think they can have a cliff in 2030. If they were serious could put a quota in place today and start tightening it, or a quota and a timeline for tightening it. Maybe they are already doing that, I don't know. Announcing radical change in a different government's term is standard political theatrics. All that matters is the actions they take now.
- LatteLazy 6y agoThe first time a government announced they would take action but not for a decade, it signalled action would be taken. This is the 1000th time a government has said "no action today but maybe in a decade". That signals no action. That's the same signal markets have been given for several decades now. I am happy to admit this is a complex issue, one that needs a global solution, an expensive one, maybe an unsolvable one. But we also have to admit that so far no action has been taken. And this isn't action either. That's what I'm asking for here: let's all be honest for this thread and admit this is worthless and we're running out of time and we either need to make hard choices OR admit we're not going to fix it...
- mavhc 6y ago1990: do you want to fix global warming, it'll take 1% of gdp. -- nah 2000: It's now 3% -- nah 2010: It's now 5% -- nah 2020: It's now 7% -- it's too expensive to fix now We need to tax pollution the amount it costs to clean up that pollution, that's all. You can fly as much as you want if you pay the costs. I suggest a £1 tax on non EV cars, that doubles each month
- sgt101 6y agoWhen it gets to £16 there will be protests, when it gets to £64 it will be repealed. This is what happened in France. If new personal cars are EV only by 2030 then by 2025 most manufacturers will have changed most of their product line, by 2029 virtually all will have changed virtually all.
- twelve40 6y agohow bad will it get for the UK specifically? honest question, I'm not a climate scientist. Brief googling, floods, more extreme temps (like the rest of Europe now?), maybe they did the math and decided that simply shutting down the Thames Barrier and a few other measures would be cheaper than drastic hard ICE bans etc? Not to cast any doubt on the horrible terrible disasters that the global warming will surely bring, but the UK is not Florida, so maybe they did some location-centric math and found that specifically for them it's not life or death?
- malux85 6y agoHere’s the thing about a CO2 molecule : I stood there for ages shouting at it, Then I tried to reason with it, Then I explained to it about in intricacies of human politics (you cannot have sudden cliff-edges in policies!) Then I told it I had to send signals to the market And the darn thing just sat there and continued to cause problems.