8 ms·

PRC can either fire and also lose a few cities, or not fire and be ignored. MAD works because everyone knows that starting or joining a nuclear firefight is li

by ohazi 6y ago

PRC can either fire and also lose a few cities, or not fire and be ignored. MAD works because everyone knows that starting or joining a nuclear firefight is literally suicide. What would compel them to fire if they're clearly not being targeted?

mpweiher 6y ago
For example: a mistaken belief that they were being targeted. The book The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States: A Speculative Novel describes such a scenario. Chilling. https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Jeffrey-Lewis/dp/1328573915/ https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Jeffrey-Lewis/dp/1328573915/
- arethuza 6y ago
  Good book - another book where a Russian/China/US nuclear war starts mainly by accident is Arc Light https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arc_Light_(novel) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arc_Light_(novel) And, of course, for cases of a war starting because of a false belief that they were about to be attacked there is the real life case of Able Archer 83: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83
baybal2 6y ago
> What would compel them to fire if they're clearly not being targeted? A thinking that they can win: Tojikistan, Karabag, Transnistria, Georgia, Donbas, Crimea, Syria, Libya — all set a very damning precedent of the West conceding to use of force.
- oblio 6y ago
  There's a huge difference between a village in the middle of nowhere in a country Westerners don't care about and a major city in a developed country being attacked. And I say that as someone from about 500 km away from Transnistria, not as a Westerner. Also everyone knows that the US is both highly militaristic and highly jingoistic.
  - vertis 6y ago
    This definitely goes in the TIL pile. I'm fairly well traveled E.g. I've visited most of the Balkans, Sarajevo, Mostar, but I had not heard of Transnistria. Also ++ for the use of jingoistic. :)
  - mshroyer 6y ago
    > Also everyone knows that the US is both highly militaristic and highly jingoistic. That was certainly true up through the early 2000s, but this stereotype is by now out of date. On the left, America is self-loathing, and on the right it's become quite isolationist.
    - oblio 6y ago
      That's just a thin veneer. Do you think that if the US were attacked somehow, we wouldn't have a repeat of 2003?
      - mshroyer 6y ago
        No, I don't think so, not exactly. It depends on the specifics, of course. If a specific country directly attacked the US, of course I'd expect (and even demand) a military response. But these days, I wouldn't expect a non-state's terrorist attack to lead to the sort of misguided, ill-informed adventurism that ultimately led us to invade Iraq.
    - chasd00 6y ago
      i don't think so, a clear military attack on American soil by a foreign nation would mean lines around the block at local military recruitment offices in every city/town across the nation. Congress would have a full declaration of war signed in an hour. Terrorist attacks like 9/11 leave doubt about who to go after and at what scale to retaliate but a clear attack on a city by a foreign state as an act of war is a different thing. Gloves would come off and the complete full force of every resource ( military, political, economic, etc ) would be brought to bear.
    - newen 6y ago
- howlgarnish 6y ago
  The PRC has absolutely zero interest in taking over the DPRK. They just don't want it to fall in unfriendly/US-aligned hands. See also: Korean War, where Chinese intervened to stop the US-allied South from winning against the North.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    If they were, they would not have been trying to displace Kim themselves, and risking Kim risking his country to save his head. You remember Kim's brother VXed in Malaysia? He was China's bid on NK throne. China was trying to launch a coup in NK. China been trying to seize power in NK for decades. NK-China relations are complicated ones. China wants NK, but is afraid of losing NK if their machinations flop, and push the NK towards the West.
    - howlgarnish 6y ago
      Oh, China absolutely wants to control/exert influence in NK, I just don't see them being at all interested in military takeover of the country -- except perhaps if it falls into the "wrong" hands, in which case they might invade to install a compliant regime and then GTFO (see also: Korean War).
- samus 6y ago
  These are cases where the West did _not_ want to escalate. Too small and at the end of the day the only consequences for the West are the refugees and terrorism. Both can be "handled" by closing borders and turning up the surveillance state. If China decides to shoot back, all bets are off. It would be exactly the error the Japanese made when they attacked Pearl Harbor and thought they can get away with it. That would directly affect the West and our leaders could not say anymore "will be fine, we're taking the high road here" unless they want to be lynched by a mob.
- somesortofsystm 6y ago
  Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Libya, Syria .. all set a very damning precedent of the West not quite having the terror-liberating forces it proclaims to have. >A thinking that they can win The only way to talk about war is to be prepared to understand 'the other side' of your argument. In this case, you're setting yourself up to have to answer the question: in the 21st century, which nation state has started the most wars, committed violent hostilities, and murdered innocent citizens at massive scales, the most?
adventured 6y ago
> PRC can either fire and also lose a few cities, or not fire and be ignored. That's unlikely to be the scenario. The big problem for China is that they're responsible for the current North Korea regime existing. China has been directly, intentionally propping up and protecting North Korea from day one. The American people will not find it acceptable to exchange Pyongyang for Los Angeles or New York, much less trade several of North Korea's cities for several major US cities. The American public would demand a nuclear strike against China in retaliation, a more equitable outcome - Shanghai for Los Angeles, Beijing for New York - for those ultimately responsible for what North Korea is today. That's where hundreds of millions of people could die from a North Korean strike. It's why China should have never enabled and tolerated the Kim regime in the first place, and now it's too late to fix that historic blunder. Any nuclear strike from North Korea will likely result in a nuclear strike against China. This is equivalent to the Israeli Samson option (which is why you don't want Iran getting nukes). If the US goes down - eg loses its top 30 cities - why shouldn't it take every Chinese and Russian city with it? Try convincing the American public to not want revenge against anyone that has ever assisted North Korea.
- jusssi 6y ago
  Fortunately the public doesn't have unmoderated access to ICBMs. It's also notable that the USA has also tolerated the Kim regime, because it gives them an excuse to be present in force in South Korea. It's not like the CIA couldn't have the Kims removed if they put some effort into it. PRC would have to pretend to be angry about it, but it would also get them out of the awkward situation.
  - ganafagol 6y ago
    > Fortunately the public doesn't have unmoderated access to ICBMs. Unfortunately, the stable genius in the WH does.
    - jmnicolas 6y ago
      No matter what we think of him, he didn't start any war during his mandate which is quite a feat for a US president!
redis_mlc 6y ago
> PRC can either fire and also lose a few cities, or not fire and be ignored. CCP leadership has never cared if they lost half their population. It would be a bonus - less mouths to feed. And in fact about a quarter of China's population died in the Cultural Revolution, which was planned. > MAD works because everyone knows that starting or joining a nuclear firefight is literally suicide. No, MAD is a placebo for the ignorant public. Moscow has it's own ABM ring, and Reagan thought that not physically defending the US was stupid, hence SDI. Islam also doesn't care about MAD.

by ohazi 6y ago

mpweiher 6y ago

For example: a mistaken belief that they were being targeted. The book The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States: A Speculative Novel describes such a scenario. Chilling. https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Jeffrey-Lewis/dp/1328573915/ https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Jeffrey-Lewis/dp/1328573915/

arethuza 6y ago
Good book - another book where a Russian/China/US nuclear war starts mainly by accident is Arc Light https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arc_Light_(novel) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arc_Light_(novel) And, of course, for cases of a war starting because of a false belief that they were about to be attacked there is the real life case of Able Archer 83: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83

baybal2 6y ago

> What would compel them to fire if they're clearly not being targeted? A thinking that they can win: Tojikistan, Karabag, Transnistria, Georgia, Donbas, Crimea, Syria, Libya — all set a very damning precedent of the West conceding to use of force.

oblio 6y ago
There's a huge difference between a village in the middle of nowhere in a country Westerners don't care about and a major city in a developed country being attacked. And I say that as someone from about 500 km away from Transnistria, not as a Westerner. Also everyone knows that the US is both highly militaristic and highly jingoistic.
- vertis 6y ago
  This definitely goes in the TIL pile. I'm fairly well traveled E.g. I've visited most of the Balkans, Sarajevo, Mostar, but I had not heard of Transnistria. Also ++ for the use of jingoistic. :)
- mshroyer 6y ago
  > Also everyone knows that the US is both highly militaristic and highly jingoistic. That was certainly true up through the early 2000s, but this stereotype is by now out of date. On the left, America is self-loathing, and on the right it's become quite isolationist.
  - oblio 6y ago
    That's just a thin veneer. Do you think that if the US were attacked somehow, we wouldn't have a repeat of 2003?
    - mshroyer 6y ago
      No, I don't think so, not exactly. It depends on the specifics, of course. If a specific country directly attacked the US, of course I'd expect (and even demand) a military response. But these days, I wouldn't expect a non-state's terrorist attack to lead to the sort of misguided, ill-informed adventurism that ultimately led us to invade Iraq.
  - chasd00 6y ago
    i don't think so, a clear military attack on American soil by a foreign nation would mean lines around the block at local military recruitment offices in every city/town across the nation. Congress would have a full declaration of war signed in an hour. Terrorist attacks like 9/11 leave doubt about who to go after and at what scale to retaliate but a clear attack on a city by a foreign state as an act of war is a different thing. Gloves would come off and the complete full force of every resource ( military, political, economic, etc ) would be brought to bear.
  - newen 6y ago
howlgarnish 6y ago
The PRC has absolutely zero interest in taking over the DPRK. They just don't want it to fall in unfriendly/US-aligned hands. See also: Korean War, where Chinese intervened to stop the US-allied South from winning against the North.
- baybal2 6y ago
  If they were, they would not have been trying to displace Kim themselves, and risking Kim risking his country to save his head. You remember Kim's brother VXed in Malaysia? He was China's bid on NK throne. China was trying to launch a coup in NK. China been trying to seize power in NK for decades. NK-China relations are complicated ones. China wants NK, but is afraid of losing NK if their machinations flop, and push the NK towards the West.
  - howlgarnish 6y ago
    Oh, China absolutely wants to control/exert influence in NK, I just don't see them being at all interested in military takeover of the country -- except perhaps if it falls into the "wrong" hands, in which case they might invade to install a compliant regime and then GTFO (see also: Korean War).
samus 6y ago
These are cases where the West did _not_ want to escalate. Too small and at the end of the day the only consequences for the West are the refugees and terrorism. Both can be "handled" by closing borders and turning up the surveillance state. If China decides to shoot back, all bets are off. It would be exactly the error the Japanese made when they attacked Pearl Harbor and thought they can get away with it. That would directly affect the West and our leaders could not say anymore "will be fine, we're taking the high road here" unless they want to be lynched by a mob.
somesortofsystm 6y ago
Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Libya, Syria .. all set a very damning precedent of the West not quite having the terror-liberating forces it proclaims to have. >A thinking that they can win The only way to talk about war is to be prepared to understand 'the other side' of your argument. In this case, you're setting yourself up to have to answer the question: in the 21st century, which nation state has started the most wars, committed violent hostilities, and murdered innocent citizens at massive scales, the most?

adventured 6y ago

> PRC can either fire and also lose a few cities, or not fire and be ignored. That's unlikely to be the scenario. The big problem for China is that they're responsible for the current North Korea regime existing. China has been directly, intentionally propping up and protecting North Korea from day one. The American people will not find it acceptable to exchange Pyongyang for Los Angeles or New York, much less trade several of North Korea's cities for several major US cities. The American public would demand a nuclear strike against China in retaliation, a more equitable outcome - Shanghai for Los Angeles, Beijing for New York - for those ultimately responsible for what North Korea is today. That's where hundreds of millions of people could die from a North Korean strike. It's why China should have never enabled and tolerated the Kim regime in the first place, and now it's too late to fix that historic blunder. Any nuclear strike from North Korea will likely result in a nuclear strike against China. This is equivalent to the Israeli Samson option (which is why you don't want Iran getting nukes). If the US goes down - eg loses its top 30 cities - why shouldn't it take every Chinese and Russian city with it? Try convincing the American public to not want revenge against anyone that has ever assisted North Korea.

jusssi 6y ago
Fortunately the public doesn't have unmoderated access to ICBMs. It's also notable that the USA has also tolerated the Kim regime, because it gives them an excuse to be present in force in South Korea. It's not like the CIA couldn't have the Kims removed if they put some effort into it. PRC would have to pretend to be angry about it, but it would also get them out of the awkward situation.
- ganafagol 6y ago
  > Fortunately the public doesn't have unmoderated access to ICBMs. Unfortunately, the stable genius in the WH does.
  - jmnicolas 6y ago
    No matter what we think of him, he didn't start any war during his mandate which is quite a feat for a US president!

redis_mlc 6y ago

> PRC can either fire and also lose a few cities, or not fire and be ignored. CCP leadership has never cared if they lost half their population. It would be a bonus - less mouths to feed. And in fact about a quarter of China's population died in the Cultural Revolution, which was planned. > MAD works because everyone knows that starting or joining a nuclear firefight is literally suicide. No, MAD is a placebo for the ignorant public. Moscow has it's own ABM ring, and Reagan thought that not physically defending the US was stupid, hence SDI. Islam also doesn't care about MAD.