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Can anyone estimate what an investors in 2009 in Air BNB will get for an ROI post- IPO? I just looked and S&P 500 returned 426.134% with dividends reinvested th

Can anyone estimate what an investors in 2009 in Air BNB will get for an ROI post- IPO? I just looked and S&P 500 returned 426.134% with dividends reinvested through September 2020.

draw_down 6y ago
I'd certainly hope it's more than 4x. Otherwise what exactly are we all doing?
raiyu 6y ago
3,000-10,000x return approximately. Depends on later stage dilution and what the pre-money is, but still a ridiculous markup. No comparison to S&P.
- hnburnsy 6y ago
  Thx!
- leptoniscool 6y ago
  wow.
mrgordon 6y ago
I believe in 2011 the strike price (accounting for both stock splits) would have been around $0.75-0.80 after they raised funds around May 2011. Assuming they are worth at least $30 billion, the shares would be around $50 for around a 6150% total return assuming $0.80 initially. If someone got shares in 2009 they likely had a substantially higher return.
- hnburnsy 6y ago
  Wow thanks, that is eye opening.
- subsubzero 6y ago
  I think shares on the open market were selling for around $230 a share 2 years ago, I don't know valuation on that number but despite covid and the $1B loan amongst other things the people who joined earlier are making out like bandits(a few of my ex-coworkers went there and a friends wife joined there in 2011).
- richiezc 6y ago
  Strike price in 2011 post series B and after splits is $0.30. At the time I think the nominal price was like $2-4 a share, I'd have to go back and look. Re: 2009. I recall an early employee saying YC told them not to hire anybody, but they hired him anyways off of his very creative outreach. But let me tell you they all earned every penny of it. It's hard to remember how crazy of an idea Airbnb was ~10 years ago.
- SilasX 6y ago
  It would be really, really surprising if one of the few startups that went big didn't beat the return of the S&P for early investors.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
hnburnsy 6y ago
For comparison and anyone interested, it looks like QQQ is about 7x over that time period.
pembrook 6y ago
As one of the most successful tech growth stories of the 2010s, obviously they 1,000X'd the returns of the S&P over that time. The real question is though, going forward, what ROI will Airbnb deliver vs. the S&P 500. Growth stocks seem to be nearing bubble territory at the moment, so if we get a repeat of the 2000s where interest rates start rising again and value stocks become more in favor, it doesn't look great. Then again, selling fractionalized access to highly restricted real estate supply in all of the world's major cities doesn't sound like a bad bet for the future. If the lack of desire to invest in new construction in cities due to the covid narrative of cities being dead (obviously overblown) leads to further supply deficits, the future for Airbnb looks bright. So in summation, its impossible to predict, buy index funds instead.
user5994461 6y ago
Would be quite hard to tell. AirBnb raised money 22 times since it was founded in 2008, including 6 rounds of VC funding. The early investors could do great or they could be wiped off if that's what the later investors wanted to do. https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/airbnb/company_financials https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/airbnb/company_finan...
newguy1234 6y ago
Enormous but keep in mind how many "failed" startups you would have to go through before finding an AirBnB type investment, especially early on.

Can anyone estimate what an investors in 2009 in Air BNB will get for an ROI post- IPO? I just looked and S&P 500 returned 426.134% with dividends reinvested through September 2020.

draw_down 6y ago

I'd certainly hope it's more than 4x. Otherwise what exactly are we all doing?

raiyu 6y ago

3,000-10,000x return approximately. Depends on later stage dilution and what the pre-money is, but still a ridiculous markup. No comparison to S&P.

hnburnsy 6y ago
Thx!
leptoniscool 6y ago
wow.

mrgordon 6y ago

I believe in 2011 the strike price (accounting for both stock splits) would have been around $0.75-0.80 after they raised funds around May 2011. Assuming they are worth at least $30 billion, the shares would be around $50 for around a 6150% total return assuming $0.80 initially. If someone got shares in 2009 they likely had a substantially higher return.

hnburnsy 6y ago
Wow thanks, that is eye opening.
subsubzero 6y ago
I think shares on the open market were selling for around $230 a share 2 years ago, I don't know valuation on that number but despite covid and the $1B loan amongst other things the people who joined earlier are making out like bandits(a few of my ex-coworkers went there and a friends wife joined there in 2011).
richiezc 6y ago
Strike price in 2011 post series B and after splits is $0.30. At the time I think the nominal price was like $2-4 a share, I'd have to go back and look. Re: 2009. I recall an early employee saying YC told them not to hire anybody, but they hired him anyways off of his very creative outreach. But let me tell you they all earned every penny of it. It's hard to remember how crazy of an idea Airbnb was ~10 years ago.
SilasX 6y ago
It would be really, really surprising if one of the few startups that went big didn't beat the return of the S&P for early investors.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

hnburnsy 6y ago

For comparison and anyone interested, it looks like QQQ is about 7x over that time period.

pembrook 6y ago

As one of the most successful tech growth stories of the 2010s, obviously they 1,000X'd the returns of the S&P over that time. The real question is though, going forward, what ROI will Airbnb deliver vs. the S&P 500. Growth stocks seem to be nearing bubble territory at the moment, so if we get a repeat of the 2000s where interest rates start rising again and value stocks become more in favor, it doesn't look great. Then again, selling fractionalized access to highly restricted real estate supply in all of the world's major cities doesn't sound like a bad bet for the future. If the lack of desire to invest in new construction in cities due to the covid narrative of cities being dead (obviously overblown) leads to further supply deficits, the future for Airbnb looks bright. So in summation, its impossible to predict, buy index funds instead.

user5994461 6y ago

Would be quite hard to tell. AirBnb raised money 22 times since it was founded in 2008, including 6 rounds of VC funding. The early investors could do great or they could be wiped off if that's what the later investors wanted to do. https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/airbnb/company_financials https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/airbnb/company_finan...

newguy1234 6y ago

Enormous but keep in mind how many "failed" startups you would have to go through before finding an AirBnB type investment, especially early on.