8 ms·

I constantly find myself wondering “what if this pandemic happened ten years ago? Twenty?”

by mxcrossb 6y ago

brianwawok 6y ago
Decent chance people would have listened to lockdown orders better?
- amelius 6y ago
  Yes, fake news/information wasn't a thing back then.
  - ancarda 6y ago
    Yes it was. We've had disinformation since at-least the cold war. Probably the best example is the idea that AIDS was created by the U.S. government. The New York Times made a great documentary on disinformation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR_6dibpDfo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR_6dibpDfo Well worth a watch IMO
    - zhobbs 6y ago
      Alexander Hamilton wrote a lot of articles published in newspapers across the country in 1793 about how to "cure" yellow fever with booze and hot baths: https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/486788-how-politics-infected-americas-first-epidemic-and-cost-lives https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/486788-how-politics-i...
    - hvdfhbj 6y ago
      Don't forget 9/11 truthers. They were at least as popular as any modern-day form of crankery, and that was nearly twenty years ago now.
    - wussboy 6y ago
      The difference is in how the disinformation is propagated. In the past media companies would self censure idiotic or untrue ideas to protect their reputations and while you could find information if you looked hard, the things would tend to spread slowly. Social media doesn’t profit from reputation but from engagement, and untruth is more engaging.
  - 15155 6y ago
    https://www.cnn.com/2002/ALLPOLITICS/09/04/congress.iraq/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2002/ALLPOLITICS/09/04/congress.iraq/ind...
- ghaff 6y ago
  In general, the further back you go, the less practical it would be for most people to avoid going into an office if they wanted to remain employed and to avoid doing most of their shopping in-person.
- 8ytecoder 6y ago
  Travel was also significantly less than what it is now. 20 years ago it would have been a local epidemic with limited spread. 10 years ago would have been a pandemic but still limited in terms of spread.
  - GuB-42 6y ago
    I don't think it would have changed much. It would have slowed the initial spread, but as we have seen, it only takes a single "superspreader" event to infect an entire country. Out of the various actions taken to fight the pandemic, closing borders was among the least effective. Basically, it only worked on islands and in combination with strong local actions (testing, tracing, quarantine, lockdowns, ...). 20 years ago wasn't the middle ages, air travel was a thing (9/11 was almost 20 years ago). In fact, it wasn't that different than it is today.
fbn79 6y ago
Look what happened on 1918
- marvin 6y ago
  Yep. Classic catastrophe. A lot of people died, and then life eventually went on for most people. A tragedy that was remembered for generations, but not the end of the world.
  - jacquesm 6y ago
    All of humanity could die by your definition and it would not be the end of the world.
    - skyyler 6y ago
      It wouldn't be... It would be the end of humanity. The world would keep on spinning.
      - uCantCauseUCant 6y ago
        Spiraling..
    - marvin 6y ago
      Oh my. Today's polarized online discourse. All right, let me be more precise, since multiple people seem to be jumping to the conclusion that I'm some rabid anti-mask, anti-lockdown, science-hating, Trump-voting neoliberal. I was hoping to contribute fruitfully to the discussion in short form, but seems like I'll need more words. The coronavirus pandemic is a terrible natural disaster. We are right to take extreme measures to control it until proper mitigating measures become available, and we are very lucky that it did not happen ten years ago. Our societal surplus thankfully allows us to do the right thing and protect our weak and unlucky, as well as be more precautionary regarding long-term effects than others would have. Reiterating my point -- if we were unable to use modern science and technology to combat the pandemic, the death toll and long-term health effects would be comparable to a minor global war. This would be a catastrophe that would be remembered for generations. It still will, but thankfully writ small. Compared to other historical catastrophes -- the Black Death, the World Wars, five centuries of European warfare, Mao's Great Leap Forward, it would be a mild event, mostly because the death toll would hit the elderly and the weakened hardest. It would be bad, but it would not mean sacrificing a whole generation of our most ambitious young and capable people. It would certainly not be a catastrophe that threatened societies, although political follow-on effects would have lasting impact. It's also worth noting that many authorities around the world have bungled the response terribly, both being ineffective in their measures and causing more economic damage than necessary. But that's dangerous territory to discuss, since you risk being branded and shut down with the terms I mentioned above. (For reference, I made a fool of myself in my social circle in early March by suggesting 'extreme' quarantine measures before any Western governments did. I've been supportive of most science-based measures to slow and contain the pandemic, while at the same time being critical of many authorities' slow adaption of the best available science -- including lack of early mask recommendations and reluctance to consider aerosol contagion).
ReptileMan 6y ago
Without social media and news organizations forced to whore themselves for clickbait money it would have been just written off as "damn those two pneumonia seasons were really shitty" .
emiliobumachar 6y ago
Make it thirty, and the internet is not widespread.
alibarber 6y ago
I often wonder this and perhaps it would be less bad because people were less mobile (or it'd spread slower) - but worse because of the presumably worse treatment options. Perhaps we today would be 20 years ahead in terms of medicine and tech given the real pressure for innovation that would have been needed ('war is the mother of invention' - or something), but for a higher cost in casualties back then. So many variables! - It's an interesting thought experiment.
- ghaff 6y ago
  People weren't that much less mobile 20 years ago. And it would have been much harder for many businesses to go virtual relative to today, a lot of online delivery was early days and certainly not at today's scale, etc. So "shelter in place" would probably have been much more limited. 10 years earlier and most of the things that let people stay at home would have been off the table.
  - bluGill 6y ago
    20 years ago my boss orders my to work from home the next day because it was important for me to finish a critical piece without the distractions of the office. Of course as a programmer we have always been on the bleeding edge of this just be the fact that until our tools work we can't make anyone else's work. 100 years ago people regularly ordered things for delivery. Sure it wasn't online, but all online gives you is some time.
    - kazinator 6y ago
      > 100 years ago people regularly ordered things for delivery. E.g. "milkman" is a word in English. Today, most people haul their own milk home from the supermarket.
      - ghaff 6y ago
        We actually had a milkman for a period when I was growing up. Certainly, as you go back in time, there was a lot of local delivery especially in urban areas. Mail order, Sears catalog notwithstanding, less so. Just to pick one random example, ordering music, movies, or books pre-Amazon was really pretty limited.
ToniCipriani 6y ago
10 or 20 years ago Facebook wasn't so widespread.
- djsumdog 6y ago
  Newspapers were still pretty good at spreading nationwide narratives and fear back then, probably much better than current media because people couldn't talk back at scale.
  - M0 6y ago
    Here a good example (1885, Montreal): https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/22/health/anti-vaxxers-old-arguments-covid-19-wellness-partner/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/22/health/anti-vaxxers-old-argum...
umanwizard 6y ago
The same as what happened during the 1918, 1957, and 1968 flu seasons.
- xorcist 6y ago
  There should be a corollary of Godwin's Law to compare other diseases with the Spanish Flu. The pain and suffering it caused is hard to imagine and should not be downplayed. Covid, as bad as it is, is almost three orders of magnitude off in deadliness (thus far, per capita).
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- ThePreacherMan 6y ago
  Im surprised you are not yet down-voted into oblivion.
salmon30salmon 6y ago
I think it wouldn't have been as big of a deal. Most people had their minds made up about severity in early 2020 after seeing Wuhan and Italy. No amount of new data pointing to the fact that _those_ were in fact the outliers, and that COVID-19 is bad-but-not-apocalyptic will change their mind. I attribute this to the speed at which information travels now, and the way that social media works to reenforce existing beliefs rather than encouraging a constant reassessment.
marcell 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu
ls612 6y ago
Even ten years ago WFH and online school just would not have worked, this was when the iPhone 4 was hot new tech and most people still had single digit mbps internet. There's no chance that you could try the sort of 'online everything' we've been doing this year. The lockdowns become far less palatable when the consequence is clearly "no school or work for a long time".

I constantly find myself wondering “what if this pandemic happened ten years ago? Twenty?”

brianwawok 6y ago

Decent chance people would have listened to lockdown orders better?

amelius 6y ago
Yes, fake news/information wasn't a thing back then.
- ancarda 6y ago
  Yes it was. We've had disinformation since at-least the cold war. Probably the best example is the idea that AIDS was created by the U.S. government. The New York Times made a great documentary on disinformation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR_6dibpDfo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR_6dibpDfo Well worth a watch IMO
  - zhobbs 6y ago
    Alexander Hamilton wrote a lot of articles published in newspapers across the country in 1793 about how to "cure" yellow fever with booze and hot baths: https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/486788-how-politics-infected-americas-first-epidemic-and-cost-lives https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/486788-how-politics-i...
  - hvdfhbj 6y ago
    Don't forget 9/11 truthers. They were at least as popular as any modern-day form of crankery, and that was nearly twenty years ago now.
  - wussboy 6y ago
    The difference is in how the disinformation is propagated. In the past media companies would self censure idiotic or untrue ideas to protect their reputations and while you could find information if you looked hard, the things would tend to spread slowly. Social media doesn’t profit from reputation but from engagement, and untruth is more engaging.
- 15155 6y ago
  https://www.cnn.com/2002/ALLPOLITICS/09/04/congress.iraq/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2002/ALLPOLITICS/09/04/congress.iraq/ind...
ghaff 6y ago
In general, the further back you go, the less practical it would be for most people to avoid going into an office if they wanted to remain employed and to avoid doing most of their shopping in-person.
8ytecoder 6y ago
Travel was also significantly less than what it is now. 20 years ago it would have been a local epidemic with limited spread. 10 years ago would have been a pandemic but still limited in terms of spread.
- GuB-42 6y ago
  I don't think it would have changed much. It would have slowed the initial spread, but as we have seen, it only takes a single "superspreader" event to infect an entire country. Out of the various actions taken to fight the pandemic, closing borders was among the least effective. Basically, it only worked on islands and in combination with strong local actions (testing, tracing, quarantine, lockdowns, ...). 20 years ago wasn't the middle ages, air travel was a thing (9/11 was almost 20 years ago). In fact, it wasn't that different than it is today.

fbn79 6y ago

Look what happened on 1918

marvin 6y ago
Yep. Classic catastrophe. A lot of people died, and then life eventually went on for most people. A tragedy that was remembered for generations, but not the end of the world.
- jacquesm 6y ago
  All of humanity could die by your definition and it would not be the end of the world.
  - skyyler 6y ago
    It wouldn't be... It would be the end of humanity. The world would keep on spinning.
    - uCantCauseUCant 6y ago
      Spiraling..
  - marvin 6y ago
    Oh my. Today's polarized online discourse. All right, let me be more precise, since multiple people seem to be jumping to the conclusion that I'm some rabid anti-mask, anti-lockdown, science-hating, Trump-voting neoliberal. I was hoping to contribute fruitfully to the discussion in short form, but seems like I'll need more words. The coronavirus pandemic is a terrible natural disaster. We are right to take extreme measures to control it until proper mitigating measures become available, and we are very lucky that it did not happen ten years ago. Our societal surplus thankfully allows us to do the right thing and protect our weak and unlucky, as well as be more precautionary regarding long-term effects than others would have. Reiterating my point -- if we were unable to use modern science and technology to combat the pandemic, the death toll and long-term health effects would be comparable to a minor global war. This would be a catastrophe that would be remembered for generations. It still will, but thankfully writ small. Compared to other historical catastrophes -- the Black Death, the World Wars, five centuries of European warfare, Mao's Great Leap Forward, it would be a mild event, mostly because the death toll would hit the elderly and the weakened hardest. It would be bad, but it would not mean sacrificing a whole generation of our most ambitious young and capable people. It would certainly not be a catastrophe that threatened societies, although political follow-on effects would have lasting impact. It's also worth noting that many authorities around the world have bungled the response terribly, both being ineffective in their measures and causing more economic damage than necessary. But that's dangerous territory to discuss, since you risk being branded and shut down with the terms I mentioned above. (For reference, I made a fool of myself in my social circle in early March by suggesting 'extreme' quarantine measures before any Western governments did. I've been supportive of most science-based measures to slow and contain the pandemic, while at the same time being critical of many authorities' slow adaption of the best available science -- including lack of early mask recommendations and reluctance to consider aerosol contagion).

ReptileMan 6y ago

Without social media and news organizations forced to whore themselves for clickbait money it would have been just written off as "damn those two pneumonia seasons were really shitty" .

emiliobumachar 6y ago

Make it thirty, and the internet is not widespread.

alibarber 6y ago

I often wonder this and perhaps it would be less bad because people were less mobile (or it'd spread slower) - but worse because of the presumably worse treatment options. Perhaps we today would be 20 years ahead in terms of medicine and tech given the real pressure for innovation that would have been needed ('war is the mother of invention' - or something), but for a higher cost in casualties back then. So many variables! - It's an interesting thought experiment.

ghaff 6y ago
People weren't that much less mobile 20 years ago. And it would have been much harder for many businesses to go virtual relative to today, a lot of online delivery was early days and certainly not at today's scale, etc. So "shelter in place" would probably have been much more limited. 10 years earlier and most of the things that let people stay at home would have been off the table.
- bluGill 6y ago
  20 years ago my boss orders my to work from home the next day because it was important for me to finish a critical piece without the distractions of the office. Of course as a programmer we have always been on the bleeding edge of this just be the fact that until our tools work we can't make anyone else's work. 100 years ago people regularly ordered things for delivery. Sure it wasn't online, but all online gives you is some time.
  - kazinator 6y ago
    > 100 years ago people regularly ordered things for delivery. E.g. "milkman" is a word in English. Today, most people haul their own milk home from the supermarket.
    - ghaff 6y ago
      We actually had a milkman for a period when I was growing up. Certainly, as you go back in time, there was a lot of local delivery especially in urban areas. Mail order, Sears catalog notwithstanding, less so. Just to pick one random example, ordering music, movies, or books pre-Amazon was really pretty limited.

ToniCipriani 6y ago

10 or 20 years ago Facebook wasn't so widespread.

djsumdog 6y ago
Newspapers were still pretty good at spreading nationwide narratives and fear back then, probably much better than current media because people couldn't talk back at scale.
- M0 6y ago
  Here a good example (1885, Montreal): https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/22/health/anti-vaxxers-old-arguments-covid-19-wellness-partner/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/22/health/anti-vaxxers-old-argum...

umanwizard 6y ago

The same as what happened during the 1918, 1957, and 1968 flu seasons.

xorcist 6y ago
There should be a corollary of Godwin's Law to compare other diseases with the Spanish Flu. The pain and suffering it caused is hard to imagine and should not be downplayed. Covid, as bad as it is, is almost three orders of magnitude off in deadliness (thus far, per capita).
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
ThePreacherMan 6y ago
Im surprised you are not yet down-voted into oblivion.

salmon30salmon 6y ago

I think it wouldn't have been as big of a deal. Most people had their minds made up about severity in early 2020 after seeing Wuhan and Italy. No amount of new data pointing to the fact that _those_ were in fact the outliers, and that COVID-19 is bad-but-not-apocalyptic will change their mind. I attribute this to the speed at which information travels now, and the way that social media works to reenforce existing beliefs rather than encouraging a constant reassessment.

marcell 6y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu

ls612 6y ago

Even ten years ago WFH and online school just would not have worked, this was when the iPhone 4 was hot new tech and most people still had single digit mbps internet. There's no chance that you could try the sort of 'online everything' we've been doing this year. The lockdowns become far less palatable when the consequence is clearly "no school or work for a long time".