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Is there any elasticity to that demand, i.e., has SpaceX priced launches to only attract 12 so far this year, or would they still only attract that many if they

Is there any elasticity to that demand, i.e., has SpaceX priced launches to only attract 12 so far this year, or would they still only attract that many if they lowered the price?

kanox 6y ago
There is almost no elasticity in current market: DOD, NASA and traditional GTO comsat launches are few in number and not particularly sensitive to price. Payloads routinely cost several times the price of a launch so cheaper launches have little impact. The satellite service business is much larger than the launch business and this is why SpaceX is attempting to enter.
- mlyle 6y ago
  > Payloads routinely cost several times the price of a launch so cheaper launches have little impact. Little immediate impact. Of course, if launch gets way cheaper, the things you do to maximize longevity, fault-tolerance, and mass efficiency start to matter less... That is, payloads are expensive in part because launch is expensive.
nickik 6y ago
The problem is that the main business of SpaceX and Arianespace was GEO sats. Those have been in a slump and fewer launches existed. Maybe that will pick back up, but the largest part of that were for Internet and after that TV, both don't seem like huge growth markets. Small sats have become so powerful, that on a SpaceX Rideshare you can deploy basically a whole constellation in one shot potentially. Most sats today are no longer that large and heavy that you have dedicated launches. Many of their launches are government, both domestic and foreign. SpaceX has not reduced the price 'that much' in the last couple of years. They were already the cheapest on the market and opted for more profit, so they could have better cashflow when going into Starship and Starlink. What also has to be considered is that even that 12 is a pretty large number. Large rockets usually didn't fly that at the rate SpaceX flies them. The sat market is slow the respond, 4 years are very little in it. Hopefully people will come up with more great ideas how to use the capability SpaceX offers.

Is there any elasticity to that demand, i.e., has SpaceX priced launches to only attract 12 so far this year, or would they still only attract that many if they lowered the price?

kanox 6y ago

There is almost no elasticity in current market: DOD, NASA and traditional GTO comsat launches are few in number and not particularly sensitive to price. Payloads routinely cost several times the price of a launch so cheaper launches have little impact. The satellite service business is much larger than the launch business and this is why SpaceX is attempting to enter.

mlyle 6y ago
> Payloads routinely cost several times the price of a launch so cheaper launches have little impact. Little immediate impact. Of course, if launch gets way cheaper, the things you do to maximize longevity, fault-tolerance, and mass efficiency start to matter less... That is, payloads are expensive in part because launch is expensive.

nickik 6y ago

The problem is that the main business of SpaceX and Arianespace was GEO sats. Those have been in a slump and fewer launches existed. Maybe that will pick back up, but the largest part of that were for Internet and after that TV, both don't seem like huge growth markets. Small sats have become so powerful, that on a SpaceX Rideshare you can deploy basically a whole constellation in one shot potentially. Most sats today are no longer that large and heavy that you have dedicated launches. Many of their launches are government, both domestic and foreign. SpaceX has not reduced the price 'that much' in the last couple of years. They were already the cheapest on the market and opted for more profit, so they could have better cashflow when going into Starship and Starlink. What also has to be considered is that even that 12 is a pretty large number. Large rockets usually didn't fly that at the rate SpaceX flies them. The sat market is slow the respond, 4 years are very little in it. Hopefully people will come up with more great ideas how to use the capability SpaceX offers.