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The link to [1] is an interesting take that questions the future of Asia as bipolar (China vs US) [1] https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/09/09/asia-s-future-be

The link to [1] is an interesting take that questions the future of Asia as bipolar (China vs US) [1] https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/09/09/asia-s-future-beyond-u.s.-china-competition-pub-82503 https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/09/09/asia-s-future-beyon...

nl 6y ago
As someone in Australia, where our biggest trading partner is China and our primary security alliance and our 3rd biggest trading partner is the US I hope this is the case, but it is turning out to be pretty difficult. We are in the middle of the worst trade sanctions ever from China after one of our wonderful ministers went to the US and proposed to Mr Trump an international commission to investigate the origins of COVID-19 in China. Those from Australia will recognize "a commission" as a way to bury a problem without getting anyone offside, but apparently no one told the Chinese this. So now we have this stupid pointless commission we can't back down from, China stopped buying our exports, and no one in the US even aware that it was supposed to be a way to help the US out.
- xster 6y ago
  I think the nuance that might be worth diving into is that you're referring to Australia as a single entity https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/us-ownership-of-australias-biggest-companies/news-story/5e0361d3e4433be0c4c1c40c8254cac1 https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/us-ownership-of-aus... https://jacobinmag.com/2020/07/gough-whitlam-dismissal-letters-john-kerr-australia https://jacobinmag.com/2020/07/gough-whitlam-dismissal-lette...
  - nl 6y ago
    This sounds like it's trying to imply something very sinister, but pretty unclear what it is. It's true that many Australian companies have significant US ownership, and that ownership has benefited hugely from Australia/China trade. The Kerr dismissal has had numerous conspiracy theories surrounding it since 1975 when it happened. If your point is "The US has a lot of influence in Australia" then I think it is better made by going to Canberra and looking straight out of Parliament House at the tallest statute in Canberra of the American Eagle staring down from the center of Australia's defence district.[1] [1] https://placesofpride.awm.gov.au/memorials/190381 https://placesofpride.awm.gov.au/memorials/190381
- throw2011160736 6y ago
  Well, what's even worse was that the commission made it out to be pointing fingers at China, even though the origin of COVID-19 is still uncertain. Just yesterday, there's news reports that COVID may be in Italy as early as September 19 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing-idUSKBN27V0KF https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-... along with the (not yet peer reviewed) study that COVID-19 may be in Barcelona as early as March 19 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v... What's even worse is that this sets an ugly precedence where countries first detect a new disease may not want to announce it to the world due to the stigmatisation. I've been pointing this out for a while on this board, and every time I've done so, I've been either downvoted, flagged or both. Hence the throwaway.
  - kortilla 6y ago
    It doesn’t make sense that it wouldn’t be contagious in Italy for all of that time until a major outbreak in Wuhan. If it was truly in Italy in September in 4 different people, it would have exponentially exploded long before the first wuhan case.
    - throw2011160736 6y ago
      Look, (I am assuming here) neither you nor I know how a new strain of a flu is detected. Plenty of people get ill without ever going to the doctors and brush it off as a normal flu, and even if they did, the doctor may just brush it off as a normal flu. The term "you don't know what you don't know" really holds true here, so being the first to detect an illness or publish it does not mean that it where it was originated. I mean the 2009 H1N1 flu was first detected in the US, but originated in Mexico, the 1918 swine flu originated from a US army base, but was first published by the Spanish, hence it has been wrongly labelled as the Spanish flu. I also have no idea why people have this notion to reject that COVID-19 may not have originated from China, especially the fact that most of the spread of COVID-19 came from Europe, so much so that Gov. Cuomo actually called it the Europe virus. https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3097766/new-york-governor-cuomo-calls-coronavirus-european https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article...
- FooBarWidget 6y ago
  Since you're Australian, please explain something to me. Australia has been calling for decoupling with China for a while now. Now that China gives you what you want, why is it a problem?
  - nl 6y ago
    > Australia has been calling for decoupling with China for a while now. What do you mean? trade There's always a "Oh Australia should look for more export markets rather than just China" but there has also been great and deep support for building deeper trade and investment ties with China. As a specific example, [1] is the Wine Australia export guide for China. They provide guides like this, run trade shows in China for Australian wine producers etc etc. [1] https://www.wineaustralia.com/selling/by-market/export-market-guide-china https://www.wineaustralia.com/selling/by-market/export-marke...
- FooBarWidget 6y ago
  I have a Chinese background, and was in China in January 2020. I witnessed the reporting from both sides and saw things progress on the ground. I have quite a different view. I don't believe the Australian call for an investigation was genuine/scientific/objective at all. The call was meant as a political attack. There is no way Australia or the US would accept any investigation result that doesn't put the full blame on China. It's a case of 'guilty until proven innocent, and we won't accept evidence of innocence'. This is shown by the fact that Australia and the US are not interested in investigating whether other countries (including their own) could be related to the origin, nor whether the response outside China has been adequate. Come on, if you're already set on a result, then why begin the investigation in the first place? And why divert resources to such an investigation, when there are much more urgent issues, such as fighting the virus? Such an 'investigation' only serves to legitimize prejudice and political agendas. It does not surprise me in the least that China sees through these disingenuous intentions. Earlier this year, China already pledged in front of the UN that they will allow an truly independent, scientific investigation, after the pandemic was over. Furthermore, China's response to Australia isn't just the result of Australia's call to investigate China. China has been taking punches from Australia for years. Australia went full in on Trump's rhetoric about China being a bully/threat, and has been blasting China in its media for years now. Things inside Australia have escalated so much, that anybody with a Chinese origin is viewed with suspicion for being a potential CCP agent, even if no evidence exists, and even if said person was Australia-born. The COVID-19 investigation call is just the last drop. Is China sometimes overly sensitive? Yes. Is China always in the right? No. But when you keep insulting a big customer, is it any surprise they chose not to buy from you anymore? The media seems to want to exlusively portrait Australia as a wholly-innocent victim, meaning that that they think it's okay to keep attacking China while being entitled to benefiting from China. In my opinion, Australia needs a dose of self-reflection too, and admit that they too played a part in deteriorating relations. I hope you guys can continue sort things out at the negotiation table, and mend this broken relationship, rather than continuing to deny own responsibility and to deny this reality where China no longer be walked all over.
  - nl 6y ago
    I agree that the Chinese/Australian relationship hasn't been great for a while. But I think you are radically underestimating the amount of support China has (or had) in Australia. China has made a lot of people rich (to make it clear: not from corruption, but from trade) and there is/was a lot of admiration for how far China has progressed in such a short period of time. > I don't believe the Australian call for an investigation was genuine/scientific/objective at all. The call was meant as a political attack. There is no way Australia or the US would accept any investigation result that doesn't put the full blame on China. The Australian Minister who made the call (Peter Dutton) did it just as he returned from a trip to the US. He's something of a mini-Trump (with a worse TV manner) and clearly made the call to get support from the US. It wasn't something that anyone else in government seems to have known about, and support for it has been lukewarm. In an alternate world, China could have welcomed the call with the proviso that it included the response to the pandemic. The Australian public would have supported that (there is great contempt here for how badly the US handled it), and China could have weakened the Australia/US alliance from that. > It's a case of 'guilty until proven innocent, and we won't accept evidence of innocence'. I don't agree with that at all. I think in Australia most people think the Chinese response was good. I think there were initial errors by the regional government (which the Chinese government has already made clear by getting rid of those people) and the inquiry should have found that. > This is shown by the fact that Australia and the US are not interested in investigating whether other countries (including their own) could be related to the origin Well there's no real compelling evidence, but I'm sure that could have been included in the inquiry if China had gone to work influencing the terms of reference. > Australia went full in on Trump's rhetoric about China being a bully/threat, and has been blasting China in its media for years now This isn't true. Australia signed a free trade agreement the year before Trump came to power and was generally seen as a great trading partner. Australia had been opposed to Chinese policy in the South China Sea, in Hong Kong and in Tibet, but didn't do anything to help Trump in his stupid trade war. > Things inside Australia have escalated so much, that anybody with a Chinese origin is viewed with suspicion for being a potential CCP agent, even if no evidence exists, and even if said person was Australia-born. I can't emphasise enough how strange it is to hear someone claim that. Over 1/3 the population of Australia was born outside Australia, and China is the second most common place of birth of those. I worked in the university sector and we funded almost as many PhD students from China as were born in Australia. It's true there have been some recent spy cases uncovered. But these have included people with no family relationship to China as well as some born there. > In my opinion, Australia needs a dose of self-reflection too, and admit that they too played a part in deteriorating relations. Well I think this incident was entirely Australia's fault, and I think most people realise that and the media has acknowledged it. But there is no face saving way for Australia to back down, and there is no political appetite in any Australian political party for being seen as bowing to Chinese pressure and suggesting the call would be withdrawn. My point is that if China had been smarter about this they could have come out ahead in Australia while making the US look bad. Instead they play the "oh we are offended" card and have lost a lot of the support they enjoyed in Australia over it.

nl 6y ago

As someone in Australia, where our biggest trading partner is China and our primary security alliance and our 3rd biggest trading partner is the US I hope this is the case, but it is turning out to be pretty difficult. We are in the middle of the worst trade sanctions ever from China after one of our wonderful ministers went to the US and proposed to Mr Trump an international commission to investigate the origins of COVID-19 in China. Those from Australia will recognize "a commission" as a way to bury a problem without getting anyone offside, but apparently no one told the Chinese this. So now we have this stupid pointless commission we can't back down from, China stopped buying our exports, and no one in the US even aware that it was supposed to be a way to help the US out.

xster 6y ago
I think the nuance that might be worth diving into is that you're referring to Australia as a single entity https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/us-ownership-of-australias-biggest-companies/news-story/5e0361d3e4433be0c4c1c40c8254cac1 https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/us-ownership-of-aus... https://jacobinmag.com/2020/07/gough-whitlam-dismissal-letters-john-kerr-australia https://jacobinmag.com/2020/07/gough-whitlam-dismissal-lette...
- nl 6y ago
  This sounds like it's trying to imply something very sinister, but pretty unclear what it is. It's true that many Australian companies have significant US ownership, and that ownership has benefited hugely from Australia/China trade. The Kerr dismissal has had numerous conspiracy theories surrounding it since 1975 when it happened. If your point is "The US has a lot of influence in Australia" then I think it is better made by going to Canberra and looking straight out of Parliament House at the tallest statute in Canberra of the American Eagle staring down from the center of Australia's defence district.[1] [1] https://placesofpride.awm.gov.au/memorials/190381 https://placesofpride.awm.gov.au/memorials/190381
throw2011160736 6y ago
Well, what's even worse was that the commission made it out to be pointing fingers at China, even though the origin of COVID-19 is still uncertain. Just yesterday, there's news reports that COVID may be in Italy as early as September 19 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing-idUSKBN27V0KF https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-... along with the (not yet peer reviewed) study that COVID-19 may be in Barcelona as early as March 19 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v... What's even worse is that this sets an ugly precedence where countries first detect a new disease may not want to announce it to the world due to the stigmatisation. I've been pointing this out for a while on this board, and every time I've done so, I've been either downvoted, flagged or both. Hence the throwaway.
- kortilla 6y ago
  It doesn’t make sense that it wouldn’t be contagious in Italy for all of that time until a major outbreak in Wuhan. If it was truly in Italy in September in 4 different people, it would have exponentially exploded long before the first wuhan case.
  - throw2011160736 6y ago
    Look, (I am assuming here) neither you nor I know how a new strain of a flu is detected. Plenty of people get ill without ever going to the doctors and brush it off as a normal flu, and even if they did, the doctor may just brush it off as a normal flu. The term "you don't know what you don't know" really holds true here, so being the first to detect an illness or publish it does not mean that it where it was originated. I mean the 2009 H1N1 flu was first detected in the US, but originated in Mexico, the 1918 swine flu originated from a US army base, but was first published by the Spanish, hence it has been wrongly labelled as the Spanish flu. I also have no idea why people have this notion to reject that COVID-19 may not have originated from China, especially the fact that most of the spread of COVID-19 came from Europe, so much so that Gov. Cuomo actually called it the Europe virus. https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3097766/new-york-governor-cuomo-calls-coronavirus-european https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article...
FooBarWidget 6y ago
Since you're Australian, please explain something to me. Australia has been calling for decoupling with China for a while now. Now that China gives you what you want, why is it a problem?
- nl 6y ago
  > Australia has been calling for decoupling with China for a while now. What do you mean? trade There's always a "Oh Australia should look for more export markets rather than just China" but there has also been great and deep support for building deeper trade and investment ties with China. As a specific example, [1] is the Wine Australia export guide for China. They provide guides like this, run trade shows in China for Australian wine producers etc etc. [1] https://www.wineaustralia.com/selling/by-market/export-market-guide-china https://www.wineaustralia.com/selling/by-market/export-marke...
FooBarWidget 6y ago
I have a Chinese background, and was in China in January 2020. I witnessed the reporting from both sides and saw things progress on the ground. I have quite a different view. I don't believe the Australian call for an investigation was genuine/scientific/objective at all. The call was meant as a political attack. There is no way Australia or the US would accept any investigation result that doesn't put the full blame on China. It's a case of 'guilty until proven innocent, and we won't accept evidence of innocence'. This is shown by the fact that Australia and the US are not interested in investigating whether other countries (including their own) could be related to the origin, nor whether the response outside China has been adequate. Come on, if you're already set on a result, then why begin the investigation in the first place? And why divert resources to such an investigation, when there are much more urgent issues, such as fighting the virus? Such an 'investigation' only serves to legitimize prejudice and political agendas. It does not surprise me in the least that China sees through these disingenuous intentions. Earlier this year, China already pledged in front of the UN that they will allow an truly independent, scientific investigation, after the pandemic was over. Furthermore, China's response to Australia isn't just the result of Australia's call to investigate China. China has been taking punches from Australia for years. Australia went full in on Trump's rhetoric about China being a bully/threat, and has been blasting China in its media for years now. Things inside Australia have escalated so much, that anybody with a Chinese origin is viewed with suspicion for being a potential CCP agent, even if no evidence exists, and even if said person was Australia-born. The COVID-19 investigation call is just the last drop. Is China sometimes overly sensitive? Yes. Is China always in the right? No. But when you keep insulting a big customer, is it any surprise they chose not to buy from you anymore? The media seems to want to exlusively portrait Australia as a wholly-innocent victim, meaning that that they think it's okay to keep attacking China while being entitled to benefiting from China. In my opinion, Australia needs a dose of self-reflection too, and admit that they too played a part in deteriorating relations. I hope you guys can continue sort things out at the negotiation table, and mend this broken relationship, rather than continuing to deny own responsibility and to deny this reality where China no longer be walked all over.
- nl 6y ago
  I agree that the Chinese/Australian relationship hasn't been great for a while. But I think you are radically underestimating the amount of support China has (or had) in Australia. China has made a lot of people rich (to make it clear: not from corruption, but from trade) and there is/was a lot of admiration for how far China has progressed in such a short period of time. > I don't believe the Australian call for an investigation was genuine/scientific/objective at all. The call was meant as a political attack. There is no way Australia or the US would accept any investigation result that doesn't put the full blame on China. The Australian Minister who made the call (Peter Dutton) did it just as he returned from a trip to the US. He's something of a mini-Trump (with a worse TV manner) and clearly made the call to get support from the US. It wasn't something that anyone else in government seems to have known about, and support for it has been lukewarm. In an alternate world, China could have welcomed the call with the proviso that it included the response to the pandemic. The Australian public would have supported that (there is great contempt here for how badly the US handled it), and China could have weakened the Australia/US alliance from that. > It's a case of 'guilty until proven innocent, and we won't accept evidence of innocence'. I don't agree with that at all. I think in Australia most people think the Chinese response was good. I think there were initial errors by the regional government (which the Chinese government has already made clear by getting rid of those people) and the inquiry should have found that. > This is shown by the fact that Australia and the US are not interested in investigating whether other countries (including their own) could be related to the origin Well there's no real compelling evidence, but I'm sure that could have been included in the inquiry if China had gone to work influencing the terms of reference. > Australia went full in on Trump's rhetoric about China being a bully/threat, and has been blasting China in its media for years now This isn't true. Australia signed a free trade agreement the year before Trump came to power and was generally seen as a great trading partner. Australia had been opposed to Chinese policy in the South China Sea, in Hong Kong and in Tibet, but didn't do anything to help Trump in his stupid trade war. > Things inside Australia have escalated so much, that anybody with a Chinese origin is viewed with suspicion for being a potential CCP agent, even if no evidence exists, and even if said person was Australia-born. I can't emphasise enough how strange it is to hear someone claim that. Over 1/3 the population of Australia was born outside Australia, and China is the second most common place of birth of those. I worked in the university sector and we funded almost as many PhD students from China as were born in Australia. It's true there have been some recent spy cases uncovered. But these have included people with no family relationship to China as well as some born there. > In my opinion, Australia needs a dose of self-reflection too, and admit that they too played a part in deteriorating relations. Well I think this incident was entirely Australia's fault, and I think most people realise that and the media has acknowledged it. But there is no face saving way for Australia to back down, and there is no political appetite in any Australian political party for being seen as bowing to Chinese pressure and suggesting the call would be withdrawn. My point is that if China had been smarter about this they could have come out ahead in Australia while making the US look bad. Instead they play the "oh we are offended" card and have lost a lot of the support they enjoyed in Australia over it.